Inflation

[IFocus]

The start of businesses helping to bring the inflation rate down. Oh, and governments with their high taxation and industrial relation rules.

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"Most economists expect that there will be an interest rate cut towards the end of 2024."

Why would you cut interest rates (still below the long term average) if you are not in a recession?

When a recession comes cutting rates from a low base dose SFA.

 

[JohnDe]

"Most economists expect that there will be an interest rate cut towards the end of 2024."

Why would you cut interest rates (still below the long term average) if you are not in a recession?

When a recession comes cutting rates from a low base dose SFA.

If we were running the RBA we might do things differently, but at the end of the day it is up to the board of the RBA. They see all the data, have a building full of analysts and researchers for modeling.

Let's hope the government and the RBA can work together.

I'm just a lowly citizen with a small business, I see only a small section of the world around me. Like the business owners running out of patience with industrial relation laws and downsizing so as not to hire more staff. And owners of building companies having to compete with government infrastructure jobs taking skilled workers and paying them twice as much, forcing the builds to take 3x as long and reducing how many builds they can realistically take on.

It is tough out here.

 

[divs4ever]

When a recession comes cutting rates from a low base dose SFA.

except get politicians re-elected

but yes the current economy is in a tight place rates really need to be 6% ( plus ) to make cutting effective

but truth be told there is too much sub-prime debt out there and that is toxic , and the RBA has little influence on that

 

[over9k]

"Most economists expect that there will be an interest rate cut towards the end of 2024."

Why would you cut interest rates (still below the long term average) if you are not in a recession?

When a recession comes cutting rates from a low base dose SFA.

Growth and/or inflation being too low. Remember that 0 is still 2 below the target in the way that 4 is 2 above it.

 

[divs4ever]

Growth and/or inflation being too low. Remember that 0 is still 2 below the target in the way that 4 is 2 above it.

but will it move the economy in a good way ( for the average citizen )

 

[over9k]

( for the average citizen )

What does the average citizen matter?

The central banks are data driven remember

 

[divs4ever]

What does the average citizen matter?

The central banks are data driven remember

the ones not riding the Government ( and quasi government ) gravy-train

but who tweaks the data ?

 

[over9k]

Update: portions are getting smaller too. I have to order two "main" sizes to actually get fed properly

Just discovered a coin has been termed for this whole phenomenon of portions/sizes getting smaller. 500g sizes (even just a block of cheese at the supermarket) went from 500 to 470 to 450 etc.

It's called "shrinkflation".

 

[divs4ever]

It's called "shrinkflation"

that is a '60s/'70s term , but then Australia devised a cute way to disguise that ... metrification trying to bamboozle young and old alike ( and trick you into sending more , like upgrading scales tape-measures etc etc . )

let's see what con-trick they ( the government) pull this time

 

[divs4ever]

that is a '60s/'70s term , but then Australia devised a cute way to disguise that ... metrification trying to bamboozle young and old alike ( and trick you into sending more , like upgrading scales tape-measures etc etc . )

let's see what con-trick they ( the government) pull this time

the other trick they pulled was decimation ( OOPS ! decimal currency ) your Courier Mail ( a Queensland newspaper ) went from 5 pence to 5 cents ( or 6 pence ) a 20% rise in a single bound as just one example

yeah i might be getting old but i have been ripped off before ... and i remember exactly who did what to me

( maybe that is why they tried so hard to kill us off during the Covid/vaccine saga )

 

[over9k]

Dead giveaway that they're betting on aus maintaining the highest immigration/population growth.

Build where there's demand

 

[divs4ever]

Dead giveaway that they're betting on aus maintaining the highest immigration/population growth.

Build where there's demand

eh ?

so they are betting on the US closing the orders ( Trump to win the election ) and the UK to abandon EU/WEF policy

and Australia not to evict the current clown-show

are you sure they have any idea what they are actually doing ( like flogging off assets that they can't they can't run at a profit )

demand is one thing , completing the project on budget is a very different one

 

[divs4ever]

Dead giveaway that they're betting on aus maintaining the highest immigration/population growth.

Build where there's demand

thanks , i will be watching to top up( average down ) FRI

( i hold both LLC and FRI )

 

[investtrader]

Who in their right mind would own LLC. They make no money, have $4billion debt. I have had direct dealings with them and there is more red tape than a government department with deep layers of management and costs.
The latest move is no conspiracy on population growth, it is a bad business flapping around before it eventually withers away.

 

[JohnDe]

Who in their right mind would own LLC. They make no money, have $4billion debt. I have had direct dealings with them and there is more red tape than a government department with deep layers of management and costs.
The latest move is no conspiracy on population growth, it is a bad business flapping around before it eventually withers away.

They had no problems while the rivers of money were flowing freely from governments. Now that they have to work for the money, they are finding it very hard.

 

[over9k]

demand is one thing , completing the project on budget is a very different one

No point even trying to do the 2nd bit if the first doesn't exist.

 

[over9k]

Who in their right mind would own LLC. They make no money, have $4billion debt. I have had direct dealings with them and there is more red tape than a government department with deep layers of management and costs.
The latest move is no conspiracy on population growth, it is a bad business flapping around before it eventually withers away.

Sure but they could nuke their aus ops and keep usa or nuke usa and keep uk or whatever and they haven't. I'm not focusing on the entire business but rather why they've culled the particular bits that they have.

 

[sptrawler]

"Most economists expect that there will be an interest rate cut towards the end of 2024."

Why would you cut interest rates (still below the long term average) if you are not in a recession?

When a recession comes cutting rates from a low base dose SFA.

except get politicians re-elected

but yes the current economy is in a tight place rates really need to be 6% ( plus ) to make cutting effective

but truth be told there is too much sub-prime debt out there and that is toxic , and the RBA has little influence on that

Last year I thought rates would top out at 5.1%, I still think they will.

The thing that might change that, is all the subsidies being forked out at the moment, inflation is the rate of change in prices.

Well by the Govt forking out the subsidies, people get used to the higher cost of their daily purchases, food, clothing, fuel etc, so the prices of those stabilise at a higher level that people get used to paying.

Then after the elections, the subsidies dry up and the public has to then get used to the higher cost of unsubsidised electricity, bus fares etc, it is just a gentle way of getting people used to a lower living standard.

The elephant in the room is still house/rent prices, how they are going to sort that or indeed if they are going to sort that, is the question.
If they do sort it out, the fiscal shock will be large, if they don't sort it out the productivity shock will be large, no one wants to go work just to cover rent with no hope of getting out of the $hit pit.

Just my thoughts, but it is an interesting period in time, will Australia remain the country of opportunity, or will it end up like most other western countries where there is a huge divide between the haves and the have nots.

At the moment IMO, we are fast approaching the crossroads.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Who in their right mind would own LLC. They make no money, have $4billion debt. I have had direct dealings with them and there is more red tape than a government department with deep layers of management and costs.
The latest move is no conspiracy on population growth, it is a bad business flapping around before it eventually withers away.

I was thinking that myslef, the charting over the longterm looks horrible, the divs are way underpar and in my opinion, there's a chance the building industry will come to a halt any time in the near future.

 

[farmerge]

Last year I thought rates would top out at 5.1%, I still think they will.

The thing that might change that, is all the subsidies being forked out at the moment, inflation is the rate of change in prices.

Well by the Govt forking out the subsidies, people get used to the higher cost of their daily purchases, food, clothing, fuel etc, so the prices of those stabilise at a higher level that people get used to paying.

Then after the elections, the subsidies dry up and the public has to then get used to the higher cost of unsubsidised electricity, bus fares etc, it is just a gentle way of getting people used to a lower living standard.

The elephant in the room is still house/rent prices, how they are going to sort that or indeed if they are going to sort that, is the question.
If they do sort it out, the fiscal shock will be large, if they don't sort it out the productivity shock will be large, no one wants to go work just to cover rent with no hope of getting out of the $hit pit.

Just my thoughts, but it is an interesting period in time, will Australia remain the country of opportunity, or will it end up like most other western countries where there is a huge divide between the haves and the have nots.

At the moment IMO, we are fast approaching the crossroads.

@sptrawler For many the crossroads have been reached and crossed and they are the ones who I would class as the working poor.