Inflation

[over9k]

In case anyone cares.

 

[greggles]

China is facing the US financial crisis 'on steroids' according to Filip De Mott at Business Insider.

China's overreliance on real estate has sent its economy tumbling toward what could be a version of the US's 2008 financial crisis, Kyle Bass said on CNBC on Tuesday.

"This is just like the US financial crisis on steroids," the Hayman Capital founder said. "They have 3 ½ times more banking leverage than we did going into the crisis, and they've only been at this banking thing for a couple of decades."

Bass said the years of economic growth China enjoyed prior to the pandemic were made possible by an unregulated real-estate market, which leaned too heavily on debt to expand.

With defaults now plaguing the industry, this could spell trouble for the country's broader economy. The real-estate sector makes up about a quarter of the country's GDP and 70% of household wealth.

"The basic architecture of the Chinese economy is broken," Bass said.

The China story is looking very ugly but the CCP is desperately trying to put as many fingers into as many dykes as they can. The dam won't hold for much longer.

How can people look at the Chinese economy and have any short term hope for the global economy given that China is the manufacturing powerhouse of the world and accounts for a sizeable amount of the demand for Australia's commodities?

The piper has not yet been paid. I've got both feet in the bear camp and believe that it is only a matter of time until global markets come tumbling down by at least 30%.

But I think this is the wrong thread for that discussion so I'll leave it there.

 

[over9k]

China is facing the US financial crisis 'on steroids' according to Filip De Mott at Business Insider.



The China story is looking very ugly but the CCP is desperately trying to put as many fingers into as many dykes as they can. The dam won't hold for much longer.

How can people look at the Chinese economy and have any short term hope for the global economy given that China is the manufacturing powerhouse of the world and accounts for a sizeable amount of the demand for Australia's commodities?

The piper has not yet been paid. I've got both feet in the bear camp and believe that it is only a matter of time until global markets come tumbling down by at least 30%.

But I think this is the wrong thread for that discussion so I'll leave it there.

YANG to bet against it if you want to degen

 

[over9k]

Yank CPI comes in above estimates. Predictable response.

Higher for longer!

 

[mullokintyre]

Yank CPI comes in above estimates. Predictable response.

Higher for longer!

With the drought restricting the number and size of ships going through the panama canal, plus the attacks by Houtis in the Arabian sea, perhaps it comes as no surprise that inflation will hold up as transport costs increase.
After all, the whole inflation thing has been driven by supply side issues.
Mick

 

[noirua]

US stocks drop and Treasury yields jump as inflation data shakes rate bets

Consumer price rise of 3.1% in January outpaces market expectations

www.ft.com

 

[over9k]

Yank CPI comes in above estimates. Predictable response.

Higher for longer!

Same for ppi now. Apparently markets are surprised by this.

 

[mullokintyre]

You have to feel sorry for the average yank.
Just when it looked like their real weekly earnings might get back some of the disposable income they lost between the post covid stimulus flush and the first half of 2023.
Bideneconomics have been a disater for Mr and Mrs Average.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

So its official then.

Treasury officials are admitting the biggest driver of inflation at the moment is wage increases.
That won't go down well the Trades Hall, the Government or the ACOSS.
But the Business end of towm the RW think tanks and the coalition will be smirking their "I told you so " faces.

Mick
From



Edited to add source of data

 

[moXJO]

So its official then.

Treasury officials are admitting the biggest driver of inflation at the moment is wage increases.
That won't go down well the Trades Hall, the Government or the ACOSS.
But the Business end of towm the RW think tanks and the coalition will be smirking their "I told you so " faces.

Mick
From
View attachment 171813


Edited to add source of data

I'm sure I mentioned this month's ago. Not exactly rocket science.
Once those wages go up its darn hard to make them go down again.

 

[noirua]

Fed's preferred inflation gauge logs lowest annual rise since March 2021

The January inflation reading comes as investors have recently scaled back expectations for when and how far the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[divs4ever]

I'm sure I mentioned this month's ago. Not exactly rocket science.
Once those wages go up its darn hard to make them go down again.

of course it is easy

it is called a government shutdown , if long enough red tape vanishes ( nobody to enforce anything ) excess folks looking for work

the 'cost of doing business'plummets

the solution might be uncomfortable for some , but it is uncomfortable for others right now

BTW wages are a consequence of inflation ( higher prices/taxes/fees come first ) except where there are skill shortages , wages lag inflation triggering a second or third wave of it ( inflation )

now sure some businesses can absorb some of the increases but would you invest in a business with a zero profit margin ( i wouldn't ) a business not making a profit closes down sooner rather than later , so the consequence is more folks looking for work taking some pressure off wage rises ( not all , of course )

 

[Smurf1976]

wages lag inflation triggering a second or third wave of it ( inflation )

Yep. Might be different in some businesses but certainly my experience observing negotiations in big business or government is that CPI is itself a key data point.

Eg the union or whoever's representing workers will say well, CPI's up x% so at a minimum that's the pay rise we're looking for.

And since CPI is an externally produced figure, it's not just some random claim the workers or union have come up with, it's one that's pretty hard to counter. Deep down management know full well anyone asking for a CPI increase does have a point - they might not like that point, but they know there's a real basis to it.

 

[sptrawler]

This post on 23 February 2023.

The price shock gave me heart burn, so I went to woolies to buy a packet of 5 quick eze, they were $6.50/ pack three months ago, today $9, that isn't 5%. ?
So I thought sod I'll buy milk instead, the long life we buy has gone up from $2.50 to $3 since last time.?
I'm going to have to do an apprenticeship with you Wayne, the missus loves metal art, so I can cut costs if I make it myself.

Well guess what, a couple of weeks ago the 5 pack of quick eze in woolies $9, had a look yesterday guess what $12.

So in 12 months they have gone up nearly 100%, minimal inflation happening eh, I guess it depends what you throw in the random basket of goods to check inflation.

 

[sptrawler]

Here is another issue that inflation is exacerbating, rampant shoplifting.
I was at the local Aldi yesterday and the young bloke behind the till took off after a bloke who took a full trolley of goods straight through the self serve.
Then I read this today, it may be a coincidence, but I doubt it, this will become a favourite pass time IMO.
Sacking the worker is interesting, what happens when most people just walk out without paying?

Woolworths worker sacked for pushing shoplifter highlights disturbing trend

As Australian supermarket workers continue to fear for their safety, retail unions say the supermarkets are refusing to include a safety clause in enterprise agreements.

au.news.yahoo.com

 

[sptrawler]

It's getting stupid, they can't even afford to pay the dolphins anymore.

Popular WA tourist spot enters voluntary administration

A popular tourist spot has hit rough water in recent years and has had to go into voluntary administration to stay afloat.

www.swtimes.com.au

 

[farmerge]

It's getting stupid, they can't even afford to pay the dolphins anymore.

Popular WA tourist spot enters voluntary administration

A popular tourist spot has hit rough water in recent years and has had to go into voluntary administration to stay afloat.

www.swtimes.com.au

Just curious. What's a dolphins salary these days, two or three fish of choice !!!!

 

[over9k]

Deep down management know full well anyone asking for a CPI increase does have a point - they might not like that point, but they know there's a real basis to it.

Which is even more reason to fudge it.

Imagine if we started negotiating based on house price increases...

 

[sptrawler]

Well in my humble opinion we are fast coming to the pointy end, where someone pays the piper.

The Govt has inflated away its deficit problem and now making surpluses, which is great.

So the wreckage left behind, runaway property prices, high cost of living, high wages and high prices for doing business in Australia.
Where form her? Again in only my humble opinion, a recession we have to have, or a readjustment of the value of our money, which makes us competitive again, or our productivity has to go onto afterburners.

Interesting times, the virtue signalling time of us telling everyone how wonderful and how clean our dirt is compared to everyone else's, doesn't seem to be getting the traction we expected.

Then again the collapse of our car industry should have shown politicians, when it comes to money the majority go for the cheapest that will do the job, they don't care whether it is made here, Japan, Korea, or China, so why would our dirt be treated any differently? As our nickel producers are finding out.

Hopefully we can get a premium for our "clean" dirt and our exceptionally nice personalities, if not it doesn't bode well for the clean green narrative and indeed our current trajectory.
I certainly can't see our biggest customer (China) paying a premium for our nickel, when they have the Indonesian supply, maybe Madeleine can get the U.S to pay us a premium so that they can make expensive batteries.
It certainly is a great balancing act to watch.
Hopefully it isn't another case of reality catching up with ideology.

King heads to the US, Canada in nickel mercy dash

Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King will make for North America to get her counterparts on board with a green surcharge for Australia’s priced-out critical minerals.

thewest.com.au

Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King will make for North America to get global counterparts on board with a green surcharge that’s hoped to give Australia’s priced-out critical minerals offering a competitive edge.

Ms King will use a raft of high-level talks in Washington DC and two summits in Toronto next week to spruik the Australian mining industry’s squeaky clean environmental, social and governance credentials and strong safety record.

 

[waterbottle]

I'm sure I mentioned this month's ago. Not exactly rocket science.
Once those wages go up its darn hard to make them go down again.

Nah it's easy, you just make it harder for businesses to keep employees by increasing costs.
Beggars can't be choosers.