Inflation

[divs4ever]

but watch where you put the inverter they have a tendency to die well before the 10 year extended warranty runs out ( wink )

 

[over9k]

Buy a good one and have it installed by an old friend you went to school with

 

[waterbottle]

Ah yes the China lockdown.

St. Jerome's prophecy was right - inflation is transitory, covid is forever.

We've hit peak inflation. Next few months worth of data should trend down. The Fed has jawboned the markets, now down almost 20% from ATHs.

 

[divs4ever]

LOL he was a millionaire at 25 and went on to be a retired millionaire ( when a million was something impressive )

last i heard he had a few unit blocks that he had wired up himself ( and kept for income )

so much for the 'dunce ' of the class ( grade ten )

if you are still out there George i hope you are rolling in it ( money )

 

[divs4ever]

Ah yes the China lockdown.

St. Jerome's prophecy was right - inflation is transitory, covid is forever.

We've hit peak inflation. Next few months worth of data should trend down. The Fed has jawboned the markets, now down almost 20% from ATHs.

i disagree on the inflation , i think that was just the warm-up lap , but a dead-cat bounce , yep that is big possibility , especially if you think the recovery in the US last night was the plunge protection team , to lure in the dip-buyers

i see one bond guru guesstimating the market is factoring negative rates for the US long term bonds in the not so distant future ( rates up to 3.5% before the chaos begins )

 

[3 hound]

We've hit peak inflation. Next few months worth of data should trend down. The Fed has jawboned the markets, now down almost 20% from ATHs

How did you reach this conclusion, have the supply issues that drove up inflation all been fixed??

 

[3 hound]

Is this an example of inflation at work in a strict academic, economic sense (please jump in if I got the details wrong about the gov program);

When I bought my house some time ago it was around the same time the government offered a $7000 incentive to purchase your first home and they did not apply the standard and considerable gov fees on buying a house. It sounded great and the timing was right for me personally.

Houses for sale in the area went up in value when the announcement was made by several thousand.

In effect the first time home buyer had an extra $7000+ in their pocket bit it made no difference.

Is this an example of inflation at play in the real economy and how could government not know this would result.

An economic explanation appreciated.

 

[over9k]

Is this an example of inflation at work in a strict academic, economic sense (please jump in if I got the details wrong about the gov program);

When I bought my house some time ago it was around the same time the government offered a $7000 incentive to purchase your first home and they did not apply the standard and considerable gov fees on buying a house. It sounded great and the timing was right for me personally.

Houses for sale in the area went up in value when the announcement was made by several thousand.

In effect the first time home buyer had an extra $7000+ in their pocket bit it made no difference.

Is this an example of inflation at play in the real economy and how could government not know this would result.

An economic explanation appreciated.

Not an accident at all, it's the exact desired effect. Go to an auction and offer to pay 10k to the winning bid and watch the winning bid go up by 10k.

The politicians all own investment properties dude.

 

[over9k]

We're on our way to backwardation at this rate.

 

[Smurf1976]

have the supply issues that drove up inflation all been fixed??

Not as far as I'm aware.

But for purely math reasons we should see a drop in the year on year rate in the near future due to baseline effects.

For the US, the march 2022 figure is 8.5% from a March 21 baseline that was 2.6% above March 2020.

The April 2022 figure will be from an April 21 baseline that's 4.2% above April 2020.

Assuming the sudden jump in April 2021 isn't repeated in April 2022, that should temporarily lower the headline rate for April 2022.

That's a math thing, it's not about any change in the underlying situation just how it shows up in the data.

 

[3 hound]

Not as far as I'm aware.

But for purely math reasons we should see a drop in the year on year rate in the near future due to baseline effects.

For the US, the march 2022 figure is 8.5% from a March 21 baseline that was 2.6% above March 2020.

The April 2022 figure will be from an April 21 baseline that's 4.2% above April 2020.

Assuming the sudden jump in April 2021 isn't repeated in April 2022, that should temporarily lower the headline rate for April 2022.

That's a math thing, it's not about any change in the underlying situation just how it shows up in the data.

So why are so many people worried about food shortages, inflation has peaked etc.

 

[Smurf1976]

So why are so many people worried about food shortages, inflation has peaked etc.

Because nothing has changed in the real world.

My point's purely a mathematical one that a sudden jump occurred in April 2021 and, unless that is repeated in the exact same month in 2022, there'll be a temporary drop in the figure which no doubt leads to great excitement that it's all fixed and so on.

That said, well if actual inflation did surge in April 2022 then it's a moot point. The effect would still be there but would be obscured and of no relevance in that case.

We'll soon find out!

 

[3 hound]

Because nothing has changed in the real world.

My point's purely a mathematical one that a sudden jump occurred in April 2021 and, unless that is repeated in the exact same month in 2022, there'll be a temporary drop in the figure which no doubt leads to great excitement that it's all fixed and so on.

That said, well if actual inflation did surge in April 2022 then it's a moot point. The effect would still be there but would be obscured and of no relevance in that case.

We'll soon find out!

The US fuel prices were more than a mathematical exercise, it was a very real cost that hurt people.

Anyhoo, maybe it was just "transitory"

 

[over9k]

WILD gyrations now:



Looks like yesterday was a pretty good call if I do say so myself. Probably plenty of swing plays to be had over the next week or two for those brave enough.

 

[over9k]

Notice how the definition of a transitory period just keeps getting longer and longer?

 

[over9k]

There's now no brakes on this train. Or at least, none that don't murder p/e and therefore most of the market.

In an inflationary environment, energy is pretty much your only growth play.

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 140902View attachment 140903

There's now no brakes on this train. Or at least, none that don't murder p/e and therefore most of the market.

In an inflationary environment, energy is pretty much your only growth play.

Nah, oil has been lacklustre and too volatile. Particularly with Beijing looking at possible shut down.

Meanwhile tech stocks are approaching covid 2020 levels. Lots of talk of the system 'coming down'.

Nothing for me to do now but put my faith in St Jerome.

 

[over9k]

NRGU up 7% on a day where TQQQ is down 9%.

A dip buy yesterday would have you 20% in the green by today already.

 

[divs4ever]

The US fuel prices were more than a mathematical exercise, it was a very real cost that hurt people.

Anyhoo, maybe it was just "transitory"

yep , transitory to runaway or hyper-inflation , how can i tell the Fed is starting to move nearly 8% behind official CPI rises and probably 12% to 15% behind REAL inflation give me 12% start over one mile and i still might beat most my age ( heart disease and all )

and those fuel prices they are a COMPOUNDING factor ( a bit like GST ) every time the produce moves the cost goes UP ( the same bit of merch. ) if it was 10% once per item folks could adjust in a while

 

[over9k]

Problem is, so much of it is supply side driven with the sanctions on russian oil. To be fair to the fed, that's well & truly beyond their control.

A supply side inflation spike means stagflation, this is a fact.