Inflation

[over9k]

The inflationary pressures were there long before the Ukraine Invasion started.
Mick

Rubbish. Oil/energy demand had absolutely plummeted. Oil prices even went negative at one point.

I posted a graph before showing how everything soared back at the start of the year/in january when the invasion fears first started. Unless your argument is that that is a coincidence...

 

[3 hound]

The lack of truck drivers etc is not unlike the situation in Europe after the plague that killed many farm workers. It basically destroyed the old lords and ladies of the land because the few workers left could for the first time demand whatever prices they wanted for their labour or the farms would not be farmed. The entire historical system collapsed in favour of the peasants who profited immensely.

The difference now is we haven't lost the workers to disease we lost them for refusing mask mandates and receiving hand outs to not work. Some will return to work, many will move on.

 

[mullokintyre]

Rubbish. Oil/energy demand had absolutely plummeted. Oil prices even went negative at one point.

I posted a graph before showing how everything soared back at the start of the year/in january when the invasion fears first started. Unless your argument is that that is a coincidence...

WTC oil hit a 20 year low of sub $20 in March 2020 which coincided with the big dumps of shares due to Covid fears.


Since that time it rose to to $92.81 on the days prior to Russia invading Ukraine, on February 24th
This is an increase of an increase of around 73 bucks or 320 + %.
SInce the invasion, the WTI crude high was $123.70.
Thats around a $31 increase, or a 34% increase if you like.
Its since fallen back of those highs, but we will stick with the low to high scenario.
So, to me, the charts were telling me that crude increased significantly before the invasion, with suggests that inflationary pressures were building long before the invasion.
You are perfectly entitled to take a different interpretation.
Mick

 

[over9k]

The russian invasion didn't just happen out of nowhere - there was weeks of buildup of troops, vehicles etc beforehand that everyone were quite rightly carrying on about.

You need to go back to when markets first started getting worried about the invasion, aka at the start of the year. This isn't to say that energy consumption hadn't increased before then, but supply had not been nearly as cut off. The USD has actually increased dramatically since then too and is now at its strongest since the start of the pandemic:




This is a SUPPLY problem.

 

[Smurf1976]

The debate RE: interest rates is the perfect example of this. Calls for interest rates to start increasing to what they were in the 80s make no sense and are a knee-jerk, disastrous solution to a problem (inflation) that is still evolving, particularly when viewed in the historical context (declining interest rates being the norm).

Declining interest rates might be the norm, a case of going up the elevator and down the stairs, but rates at present levels clearly are not normal and are at an extreme low point.

 

[over9k]

Declining interest rates might be the norm, a case of going up the elevator and down the stairs, but rates at present levels clearly are not normal and are at an extreme low point.

Interest rates are far more of a demand lever than a supply though.

As I keep trying to point out, the fed can't control the sanctions on russian oil/gas.

 

[moXJO]

tell me how this isn't a product of unusual times. Shortage of truck drivers in USA:

Drive-In Opportunity: Walmart Raises Driver Pay and Launches Private Fleet Development Program

Throughout Walmart’s history, we’ve been committed to turning ambition into opportunity. In the last several years, we’ve cast a wide net, inviting associates from across the business to learn more, see more and do more.Now, we’re taking that same approach to the very foundation of our supply...

corporate.walmart.com

It's retention of truck drivers from my understanding. No one wants to drive for days on end and not see there family.

They were having trouble keeping people. Same with factory work.

 

[3 hound]

It's retention of truck drivers from my understanding. No one wants to drive for days on end and not see there family.

They were having trouble keeping people. Same with factory work.

This is not new for trucking, the question is why now - did they get rich or "earn to code" as per Obama's epic advice.

 

[moXJO]

This is not new for trucking, the question is why now - did they get rich or "earn to code" as per Obama's epic advice.

Online shopping went ballistic during covid.
Younger people don't want jack of these shtty jobs. You can just walk into another job right now. The older reliable truck drivers are all retiring.

 

[divs4ever]

Rubbish. Oil/energy demand had absolutely plummeted. Oil prices even went negative at one point.

I posted a graph before showing how everything soared back at the start of the year/in january when the invasion fears first started. Unless your argument is that that is a coincidence...

yes demand had plummeted , but so had supply BEFORE the virus , Venezuela , Nigeria , Libya , Syria , Iraq ( and sanctioned Iran ) the global economy had destroyed a lot of redundancy even before Trump was elected in 2016

and many folks get very nervous about things going wrong without a safety net , did they over-react probably , everyone is busy lying about the figures ( national security , you know ) , most can only make educated guesses

have we an oil shortage now , or is the oil in inconvenient places ( like South America , Africa and undeveloped deposits )

 

[divs4ever]

Online shopping went ballistic during covid.
Younger people don't want jack of these shtty jobs. You can just walk into another job right now. The older reliable truck drivers are all retiring.

yes , but several ex-truckies i know were retiring early from health issues , as well

 

[3 hound]

Online shopping went ballistic during covid.
Younger people don't want jack of these shtty jobs. You can just walk into another job right now. The older reliable truck drivers are all retiring.

"Shitty jobs" is a bit condescending and snobby mate, what does that say about the guys that do it.

Do you understand many people love trucks and the truck driving lifestyle. They are not all people desperate and out of options. In fact through the lock downs truckers worldwide were deemed essential workers - they weren't deemed shitty job guys.

 

[divs4ever]

"Shitty jobs" is a bit condescending and snobby mate, what does that say about the guys that do it.

Do you understand many people love trucks and the truck driving lifestyle. They are not all people desperate and out of options. In fact through the lock downs truckers worldwide were deemed essential workers - they weren't deemed shitty job guys.

as a person who has done some of those low-paying jobs ..sh*tty can be rather accurate , in some places there is no pride , no morale , no sense of accomplishment , now i have never driven a truck ( professionally ) but have worked on a few loading docks , and packed/unpacked a few containers , so have mixed with a few truckers .. and the key word for their skill is RESPONSIBILITY , when things go wrong they can go VERY wrong , and not only their own lives are at risk , but sometimes others as well ( not to mention the value of the rig and any cargo )

BTW i have seen management ( and customers) of a delivery treat the drivers like sh*t as well ( and have been surprised when a knuckle sandwich didn't come free with the delivery )

it's a rough game and i am not surprised when many retire early ( whether from health reasons or not ) ( BTW i have known at least one that drove through a house whilst dying from a heart attack , so stressing them out is not so great an idea )

 

[over9k]

"Shitty jobs" is a bit condescending and snobby mate, what does that say about the guys that do it.

Do you understand many people love trucks and the truck driving lifestyle. They are not all people desperate and out of options. In fact through the lock downs truckers worldwide were deemed essential workers - they weren't deemed shitty job guys.

I think he's more referring to how the companies treat their people. A grad job at a big 4 is considered shitty by anyone except idiots now too.

There's no shortage of jobs that are just fcuking awful, I'd go and get an apprenticeship as (whatever) long before I did warehouse work for example.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, on a surprisingly green day, there's a lot of talk about whether we've now found a support level:

 

[over9k]

The lack of truck drivers etc is not unlike the situation in Europe after the plague that killed many farm workers. It basically destroyed the old lords and ladies of the land because the few workers left could for the first time demand whatever prices they wanted for their labour or the farms would not be farmed. The entire historical system collapsed in favour of the peasants who profited immensely.

The difference now is we haven't lost the workers to disease we lost them for refusing mask mandates and receiving hand outs to not work. Some will return to work, many will move on.

QFT.

 

[divs4ever]

I think he's more referring to how the companies treat their people. A grad job at a big 4 is considered shitty by anyone except idiots now too.

There's no shortage of jobs that are just fcuking awful, I'd go and get an apprenticeship as (whatever) long before I did warehouse work for example.

i hope so , but some companies are absolutely lacking in team spirit

BTW the three months i was apprentice ( i left because of health issues ) was one of the best places i have worked ( safely in the top 3 )

but it was a small family run business ( doomed to be taken-over later ) sadly it was a time when apprenticeships were rare , so the next job was a LARGE warehouse ( with an equally rapid turnover of staff ) that corporation is still an ASX top 20 company ( so karma doesn't always work )

 

[divs4ever]

well unless truckers get paid more than i think they do , they have a big responsibility on their backs and sometimes given some crazy situations ( you should have seen some of the containers i have unpacked , feels like i have seen everything bar a live crocodile or a dead migrant .. those international ones can be a real surprise package )

mind you i did have a driver rock up with the diesel tied on with a rope !! and when he turned using full lock the tank fell off ( round ones back then ) and rolled about 10 metres across the lot , awesome fun getting it back on so the truck could be backed into the dock ( lucky it was diesel or we might have lit up some lurkers smoking around the corner ) .. and had a distinctive aroma for the last half of the day

but thank goodness it was way back then , nowdays there would be an hour's paperwork over the incident , and questionnaire about potential solutions ( and i would still stink of diesel )

 

[moXJO]

"Shitty jobs" is a bit condescending and snobby mate, what does that say about the guys that do it.

Do you understand many people love trucks and the truck driving lifestyle. They are not all people desperate and out of options. In fact through the lock downs truckers worldwide were deemed essential workers - they weren't deemed shitty job guys.

It's a shitty job. All my mates that are truck drivers say the same. Always on the road, a heap of broken families, Long hours, unhealthy and the list goes on.

Not shitty as in "status to other jobs".
Pays well if you put in the hours.

I was a tradie ffs. That was a shitty job for a lot of reasons.

 

[over9k]

Anyways, point in all of this is that it's simple market forces at work: Want people to do things, need to pay them to do them.