Inflation

[divs4ever]

I cringe every time I hear how clever Australia is in mining.

The call has been forever to add value to our mining operations and yet I have never seen the education / culture developed to even think about it.

+ 1

however Indonesia worked out value adding is good for them ( sourcing local coal , iron , nickel to get a better export price )

and so i hold ATM ( extremely illiquid ) and NIC

makes you wonder what they teach in schools in Indonesia , doesn't it

 

[sptrawler]

I cringe every time I hear how clever Australia is in mining.

The call has been forever to add value to our mining operations and yet I have never seen the education / culture developed to even think about it.

We have recently built lithium hydroxide processing plants in Kemerton and Kwinana, we have the battery grade nickel plant, we have a State Government who keep saying we could be the lithium valley of the battery world and yet nothing moves on.
Most car manufacturing countries are looking to build battery manufacturing facilities, it seems strange we aren't actively encouraging them to build here, we as a country are going to need huge amounts of battery storage for the grids that would give an ongoing demand on production also.
Meanwhile Tesla announces a new giga factory in Indonesia and we talk about everything but manufacturing, there just seems to be a huge complacency going on and chase the easy money, immigration and overseas students.

2018

Could the Pilbara become Australia's ‘Lithium Valley’? - Stockhead

West Australia has been pushing to become a battery metals hub — and while all the buzz appears to be around Perth, one minister thinks the Pilbara could be a strong contender. WA’s regional development minister Alannah MacTiernan says the Pilbara has an abundance of lithium, and while it would...

stockhead.com.au

West Australia has been pushing to become a battery metals hub — and while all the buzz appears to be around Perth, one minister thinks the Pilbara could be a strong contender.

WA’s regional development minister Alannah MacTiernan says the Pilbara has an abundance of lithium, and while it would be a challenge to establish a processing hub in the region, she wants to “keep alive the dream”.

“There’s some people that would argue that that is possibly too difficult,” Ms MacTiernan told an industry event in Perth on Tuesday.

“We certainly know as a State we are absolutely determined to go through the refining, the electrochemical process and battery cell production.

“We believe that there is no reason why as a State that we cannot move through that given we’ve got absolutely every element of that supply chain.

“The question is where do we do it? Is there going to be the capability of doing this in the Pilbara, will it all be in Kwinana [a city just south of Perth] or Kemerton? We still want to keep alive the dream that in fact we may be able to do that also in the Pilbara.”

August 2022

Australia needs to boost domestic manufacturing, says PM Anthony Albanese - Australian Manufacturing

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has highlighted the need for more investments in domestic manufacturing in order to future-proof the country

www.australianmanufacturing.com.au

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has highlighted the need for more investments in domestic manufacturing in order to future-proof the country against potential global chain crises.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Trouble with Australia is that culturally, depending on the employer that's a good way to identify yourself as a target to be outsourced.

Contrary to many people's misunderstanding, the idea that Australia needs to boost productivity mostly isn't about "work harder" but rather, it's about "work smarter" and that's not just about the person doing the physical task, it's about the design and specification of it in the first place.

Most top line academics in Australia are snapped up by large overseas conglomerates, and it's been like this for years. They give them an offer they can't refuse, a house, health insurance for them and their family, and fill their bank accounts up.

 

[over9k]

Despite the magnificent seven accounting for the most concentrated rally ever this year, it was off massive lows, and earnings keep coming in far below expectations.

A lot of tech is really cheap at the moment precisely because nobody needs anything - we all bought a new tv, laptop etc a couple of years ago.

 

[over9k]

RBA raises another 25 points.

And here's my post from a month ago after PMI numbers came in hot:

Australian PMI ticks back upwards. Considering the oil price rise recently, and how trailing the data is, this is probably the data's inflection point now.

Which will also mean that interest rates will come under fresh pressure shortly.

Called it.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile:



Might be a good point to short long duration treasuries again. TMV is a good way to do it

 

[sptrawler]

My guess is, we still have at least .5% interest rate rise to go in Australia.

 

[wayneL]

My guess is, we still have at least 50% interest rate rise to go in Australia.

Equal probability imo... and only half joking.

 

[mullokintyre]

RBA raises another 25 points.

And here's my post from a month ago after PMI numbers came in hot:

Called it.

Can't believe you don't get more accolades given your predictive accuracy.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

My guess is, we still have at least .5% interest rate rise to go in Australia.

Nah, that is it.
The markets will turn belly up over the next few weeks, the public will turn nasty, media will turn against the government, loan delinquincies will rise, bankruptcies will quadruple, and thats only the good bits.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Nah, that is it.
The markets will turn belly up over the next few weeks, the public will turn nasty, media will turn against the government, loan delinquincies will rise, bankruptcies will quadruple, and thats only the good bits.
Mick

Considering nearly 50% of the population live between Melbourne and Sydney, I guess they are bleeding from the ears, so you might be right.

But over here in the West things are still cruising along from general observation, a lot will depend on the housing market IMO, if prices keep ponzieing along my guess is they will have to smash it.
If not the banks are going to have a ridiculous amount of exposure to Sydney/Melbourne real estate and people living well beyond their means, it must be getting close to that now IMO. At the least the Govt is going to have to slow the overseas purchasing and the gearing going on, again just my opinion.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

6004-5-6, warning, genius at work. I guess.

 

[over9k]

Can't believe you don't get more accolades given your predictive accuracy.
Mick

Yeah, I wish the girls swooned for this stuff.

Just imagine me in a bar:

"Hey baby, the other guy might be a professional athlete but I can predict interest rate rises like nobody you've ever met..."

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah, I wish the girls swooned for this stuff.

Just imagine me in a bar:

"Hey baby, the other guy might be a professional athlete but I can predict interest rate rises like nobody you've ever met..."

What do you think it will top out at?

 

[over9k]

What do you think it will top out at?

Lot of uncertainty on that. Will and should are two different things unfortunately. It should be damn near twice what it is but the likelihood of that happening is 0.

Are labor going to start the liberal party's tricks of fudging the numbers so they don't look so bad so they don't "have" to raise rates more? Are labor going to stay in power? Are they going to let it run hot and use bracket creep to balance the books? Are immigration numbers/rules going to be tweaked at all? Are the liberal-party-aligned media going to continue crucifying them for inflation (which is actually supply side caused) and they respond by going "fine, we'll just pump rates more then"? And then everyone cry foul about their investment property values getting pummeled so nek minnut the liberals are back in quoting john howard word for word "interest rates will always be lower under a liberal government"?

Even if the next numbers came in abysmal that doesn't mean they'll actually do what they should. They did this time around but they ignored the numbers plenty of other times so even if the next numbers come in terrible that's still no guarantee of them actually doing anything about it.

Welcome to australia.

 

[sptrawler]

Lot of uncertainty on that. Will and should are two different things unfortunately. It should be damn near twice what it is but the likelihood of that happening is 0.

Are labor going to start the liberal party's tricks of fudging the numbers so they don't look so bad so they don't "have" to raise rates more? Are labor going to stay in power? Are they going to let it run hot and use bracket creep to balance the books? Are immigration numbers/rules going to be tweaked at all? Are the liberal-party-aligned media going to continue crucifying them for inflation (which is actually supply side caused) and they respond by going "fine, we'll just pump rates more then"? And then everyone cry foul about their investment property values getting pummeled so nek minnut the liberals are back in quoting john howard word for word "interest rates will always be lower under a liberal government"?

Even if the next numbers came in abysmal that doesn't mean they'll actually do what they should. They did this time around but they ignored the numbers plenty of other times so even if the next numbers come in terrible that's still no guarantee of them actually doing anything about it.

Welcome to australia.

Ok hang your nuts over the fence and put number on it. Lol
What do you think it will settle at?
I said a while ago 5.1 %.

 

[over9k]

Here's a giggle for everyone:

Australian PMI ticks back upwards. Considering the oil price rise recently, and how trailing the data is, this is probably the data's inflection point now.

Which will also mean that interest rates will come under fresh pressure shortly.

OZ inflation just refuses to die!
View attachment 164595
So now the talk is will MS Bullock give us another 25 basis points increase on Cup Day?


Mick

I'd like to say yes, but I'm going to say no.

Right, in that case, I am going to bet she will give us another 25 points.
I mean she said that renters are having it better this year than in 2021, so she is obviously very much in the loop, and has a pulse on what is happening out there in the burbs.
Mick

This series of sarcastic posts would be comical if it wasn't all real. The level of lack of faith in our powers that be that this all betrays is just.. depressing.

 

[over9k]

Ok hang your nuts over the fence and put number on it. Lol

See my previous post about wanting to say yes but having so little faith in the dickheads in charge that I'm going to say no.

 

[over9k]

Nah c'mon trawler she reckons renters are having a better time now than they were a couple of years ago so she clearly knows what's up and takes her role and its responsibility very seriously.

Our authorities have always had our best interests in mind when making any decision.

 

[over9k]

Nah, that is it.
The markets will turn belly up over the next few weeks, the public will turn nasty, media will turn against the government, loan delinquincies will rise, bankruptcies will quadruple, and thats only the good bits.
Mick

Jesus christ mullok you've got me worried about my 15 negatively geared investment properties and $6m worth of franking credits now.

Does anyone happen to have a cousin that lives in the cayman islands?

Asking for a friend >_>