Inflation

[Telamelo]

Same here in Qld above $2 in most places around

and with the Brisbane Olympic's only 8 year's away - inflation is here to stay imo

 

[Dona Ferentes]

as I seem to have stumbled into another FMG thread, with added benefit of being blocked by erstwhile resident genius over90kg , so things make even less sense (or, possibly, more), here's another snippet:
.

Bill Ackman of Pershing Square tweeted last week that he’s shorting long-term US government bonds, partly because he expects “persistent” inflation of around 3 per cent.

This, he argues, would imply a 5.5 per cent yield on US 30-year bonds (they yield 4.2 per cent at present). In turn, this higher yield suggests further steep declines in bond prices.

What’s more, Ackman warns, this repricing “can happen soon”. “There are many times in history where the bond market reprices the long end of the curve in a matter of weeks, and this seems like one of those times.”

 

[over9k]

Saudi's now unilaterally cutting oil output whether the rest of opec goes along with it or not. Big deal.

 

[over9k]

Hi

Hiking rates doesn't curb inflation whatsoever - it only impacts those struggling to make ends meet. If RBA was serious about getting inflation under control then they'd pressure Federal Government to control prices - "freeze prices" simple as that (not allowing anyone to price gouge etc.)

Only partially true. Rate rises make credit more expensive/difficult to attain. This reduces demand. It also reduces supply (as producers don't invest in the supply side as much) but not as much. So the more debt you're in the more they effect you personally (that's the demand side).

Price fixes would only create shortages.

But there's a lot more going on/causing problems with inflation than interest rates being too low. There's a lot (like a lot) of supply side and structural problems that rate rises can not/will not do a damn thing to fix.

Those things are almost entirely outside the control of central banks however. Central banks control monetary policy so they use the tools they have.

If they aren't the right tools for the job (and they're mostly not) then you need to start looking at/pointing the finger at those who do have the necessary tools to fix it (government).

Hence my endless posts about how A: interest rates are an extremely blunt instrument and B: that the problems go much deeper than just the supply of credit and to focus on interest rates is to fall for a classic misdirect.

If you want to start pointing fingers, point them at 20+ years of economic mismanagement.

I made the post about canada reflecting the problems (and causes of the problems) of australia for a reason.

Same as I keep making endless posts about the problems being much more ingrained/structural than markets are pricing in (realising) and to focus on the long end of the yield curve because of this for a reason

 

[waterbottle]

Moooooore

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bowman-says-more-us-rate-hikes-likely-will-be-needed-2023-08-05/QUOTE

 

[over9k]

On Friday, the Ukrainians used a naval drone (a motorboat loaded with a crap ton of explosives) to hit a Russian vessel in the port of Novorossiysk. These naval drones have been successful so far; just look at the Kerch Strait Bridge. However, a naval drone hitting Novorossiysk would signal a considerable range increase OR that a third party is involved.

So how does this play into commercial shipping? On Saturday, the Ukrainians hit a Russian tanker with one of these drones. And if that marks the beginning of a trend, this will be a big problem for many people. As the Black Sea becomes a no-go zone, Russia's global position will suffer because everything they do is dependent on free movement...if that goes up in smoke, everything does.

I've been surprised up to this point that not everything has gone up in smoke, but it's looking like those days might be over. The "restraint" that we've seen from both sides has practically gone away overnight, and there will be huge whiplash effects. The oil industry, in particular, will face significant disruptions; most of that falling on China and the rest of East Asia.

A lot still needs to happen, but the Russians could be losing their strategic position in the water, their ability to penetrate global economies, and their ability to project power across the wider world...not to mention a complete reordering of international energy. So yeah, things are heating up.

 

[over9k]

U.S CPI drops on thursday.

 

[divs4ever]

Hi

Hiking rates doesn't curb inflation whatsoever - it only impacts those struggling to make ends meet. If RBA was serious about getting inflation under control then they'd pressure Federal Government to control prices - "freeze prices" simple as that (not allowing anyone to price gouge etc.)

since ( sovereign ) money creation causes inflation logic dictates that government ceasing to create extra money will take the impetus out of inflation , by limiting the currency in circulation

... but then if that were to happen a freezing of credit is liable to occur as businesses worry who can actually pay outstanding bills

 

[divs4ever]

Saudi's now unilaterally cutting oil output whether the rest of opec goes along with it or not. Big deal.

as best as i could understand it, Saudi Arabia was at near maximum production not so long back so easing back on production looks rational in a world where oil demand looks like it will contract in the near term

i think the Saudis will be content just keeping market-share intact , might be a wise time to do any needed maintenance and plant upgrades

 

[waterbottle]

China YoY exports down 14.5%



Deflation?

 

[waterbottle]

Maybe the government should tax the banks, Italian style

Italy shocks banks with 40% windfall tax for 2023

Italy dealt a surprise blow to its banks and sent shockwaves across the sector in Europe by setting a one-off 40% tax on profits reaped from higher interest rates, after reprimanding lenders for failing to reward deposits.

www.reuters.com

 

[over9k]

China YoY exports down 14.5%

View attachment 160705

Deflation?

You beat me to it!




AUD dumps 1.1% in response. It's still not too late!

 

[wayneL]

AUD dumps 1.1% in response. It's still not too late!

Fuurrrrkkk. Escape from Auscatraz is getting more exy

 

[over9k]

Fuurrrrkkk. Escape from Auscatraz is getting more exy

Remember all those posts I made months ago about parking your cash in USD?

I'm not quite as silly as I look

 

[over9k]

AUD just cracked below 65 U.S cents

 

[StockyGuy]

Ahhh but it is nice to see how it pumps up the (originally) half of my super in International Shares Index Fund - Unhedged.

 

[over9k]

Ahhh but it is nice to see how it pumps up the (originally) half of my super in International Shares Index Fund - Unhedged.

If only I could have convinced my parents of it months back

 

[wayneL]

Remember all those posts I made months ago about parking your cash in USD?

I'm not quite as silly as I look

I actually wanted to go over to GBP... Kicking myself

 

[over9k]

I actually wanted to go over to GBP... Kicking myself

I don't actually think you've missed all of the opportunity even now. Kind of like how I keep saying there's time left to get your money out of china if you have any there.

You've missed some of the opportunity yes, but not all of it.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile:



And they even have several others staring down the barrel likely added to the list soon:



Remember that recessions are just like nature - the weakest perish first and then down the line we go.

A few months back it was the small banks, now these ones are mid size banks.

Next will be the bigger ones.