Inflation

[mullokintyre]

View attachment 159538

Markets barely moved in response. Gut instinct says the fed will stick to forward guidance of one more hike and then pause (give it the old "wait and see").

As usual, the BLS get to those figures using "adjustments".
From Zero Hedge

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week fell to 237k last week (from 249k the prior week) on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Without the 'seasonal adjustment', initial jobless claims rose to its highest since January...

 

[over9k]

True, but, the authorities work on/with/respond to the official numbers so it's the official stats that de facto move rates/markets/etc.

 

[Smurf1976]

If central banks are going on pause, time to look for a major top in the stock market.

 

[over9k]

If central banks are going on pause, time to look for a major top in the stock market.

Yeah but it was all of what, a couple of months ago where everyone were fretting over GFC #2 with the bank carryon and growth plays actually INCREASED in response to the anticipated rate cuts another GFC would result in.

I think the fed's going to hold them pretty steady TBH. There's a lot of really strong tailwinds for the U.S economy that most of the rest of the world simply is not going to enjoy.

 

[farmerge]

Just been reading a bit about the beloved/be leaguered leader of the RBA.
Apparaently it is the workers who are at fault causing inflation.
Not the banks , businesses and multi nationals upping there prices to record record profits.
Apparaently he has a different view on these things than some of the more enlightened board members.

 

[over9k]

Got a link to that farmerge?

We all know the RBA is hardly independent.

 

[farmerge]

Got a link to that farmerge?

We all know the RBA is hardly independent.

Got it off the Crickey news on the PC
Crickey News Australia

 

[farmerge]

I often wonder how these well polished backsides would fare in the real world of juggling expenses to make ends meet. Would they be able to survive on the reteriet that they have served up to the Australian public this year

 

[mullokintyre]

True, but, the authorities work on/with/respond to the official numbers so it's the official stats that de facto move rates/markets/etc.

perhaps it says the markets are just as dumb as the rest of us,
mick

 

[Belli]

I often wonder how these well polished backsides would fare in the real world of juggling expenses to make ends meet. Would they be able to survive on the reteriet that they have served up to the Australian public this year

We now have someone else to blame as Michele Bullock, Deputy Governor of the RBA, has now been appointed as Governor.

Frankly, their focus is not on individuals doing it tough. If the economy consists of 1m people and 2,000 go to the wall, that's a poor outcome for those individuals but as long as overall the economy is sound the job is done. They are not going to appoint a courier driver struggling to make ends meet as Governor.

 

[mullokintyre]

China MoM inflation -0.2%, PPI YoY of -4.6%.... Deflation?

China PPI now below COVID2020 levels

View attachment 158008

Things not looking any more rosy for China this month either.
From Bloombergs
China is facing pressure on trade as foreign shipments drop off and domestic demand remains weak, with a darkening global growth outlook and geopolitical tensions making a reprieve unlikely anytime soon.

In year-over-year terms, China's exports declined more than expected in June (-12.4% yoy vs. Bloomberg consensus: -10% yoy), and imports fell 6.8% yoy in June (vs. -4.5% in May; Exhibit 1). In sequential terms, exports declined by 6.3% sa non-annualized in June (vs. -2.7% in May) and imports decreased by 2.8% sa non-annualized in June (vs. +3.5% in May).
Exports have now fallen for four of the six months so far in 2023.

Interestingly - given China's history of shall-we-say 'managing' its data for external communication - Goldman notes that there appears to be some statistical discrepancy between the official year-to-date vs. official single-month exports data: the official year-to-date export value implied a 19.8% yoy decline for June, which is close to Goldman's estimate of -17.5% in the first take, whereas the official June export value declined 12.4% yoy.

That pushed China's trade surplus rose to US$70.6bn in June (not seasonally adjusted) from US$65.8bn in May - the surplus in the first six months at a record for that period in data back through the late 1990s.

 

[over9k]

Things not looking any more rosy for China this month

And aren't going to be again.

 

[waterbottle]

And aren't going to be again.

Hmmmm can the world live without China though?

 

[over9k]

Hmmmm can the world live without China though?

It's certainly planning to.

I'd emphasise a question mark around who you think "the world" is though - some countries have become extremely dependent on trade with china, others not so much.

 

[farmerge]

Hmmmm can the world live without China though?

More than possibly, There is India, South Korea who are probably more akin to favourable trade conditions than scantions.

 

[Telamelo]

More than possibly, There is India, South Korea who are probably more akin to favourable trade conditions than scantions.

Along with other emerging markets like Mexico & Brazil

 

[over9k]

 

[divs4ever]

Just been reading a bit about the beloved/be leaguered leader of the RBA.
Apparaently it is the workers who are at fault causing inflation.
Not the banks , businesses and multi nationals upping there prices to record record profits.
Apparaently he has a different view on these things than some of the more enlightened board members.

yep , the workers are the usual scapegoats , never the government with reckless spending/debt selling

nothing new here yet

i remember one time we had to argue for a 20 cents an hour rise despite distributing a free community newspaper , needless to say the union caved into the corporate mind-set , that section decided to 'leave the union ' ( and get out pay rise that way ) forcing corporate to 'relocate us away from a 'closed shop '

educational times indeed ( corporate tried to re-enlist us in the union once again , i left , that section become defunct a few years later )

 

[divs4ever]

yep , buy/rent an over-priced box in a homeless encampment ( workless capital city )

 

[waterbottle]

China getting flogged... GDP miss and even higher youth unemployment