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Inflation

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And the data finally turns!



Pause at the next meeting now being priced in, yields all dumped, growth plays all bounced, at what point will recession expectations counteract p/e ratio adjustments?

Probably only when earnings start reporting below expectations. Seems the train's going to continue until something like that derails it and I can't think what else will do it.
 
So at what point is this money:



Going to run out?

Or are we going to continue to just import money via migration?
 
Nasdaq now absolutely flat premarket. This might actually be the turning point. Very important night (and few days) coming up. News headlines now saying that futures are "wavering".

In this context, wavering means nervous. Markets might have finally lost their nerve. Tonight/tomorrow/monday are going to be very telling.
 
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I don't think the Fed is going to pause based off of 1 jobs report whilst unemployment is still so low....
 
waterbottle said:
I don't think the Fed is going to pause based off of 1 jobs report whilst unemployment is still so low....
Click to expand...
It's been about 50/50 on pause and bonds then moved quite a bit in response. Reading between the lines a bit it's almost as if they've been looking for an excuse to pause (even if just once).

Meanwhile, after a shaky/nervous start, growth plays have bounced tonight (so far).
 
I have a "thing" about using mobile phones for anything but making and receiving calls. For us definitely not to any form of banking with. That's just us, though.
 
Ah Wayne as you well know it's not the looks, but what comes from the heart.
Though the looks can be an attribute of course.
 
just read the following on Google

‘Fabulous dinner’: Reserve Bank (RBA) spent $25,000 on exclusive Perth function after raising rates in May '23​


P.S. Seems to me RBA are the cause of 'fuelling inflation'
 
Telamelo said:
just read the following on Google

‘Fabulous dinner’: Reserve Bank (RBA) spent $25,000 on exclusive Perth function after raising rates in May '23​

Click to expand...
Good evening Mr Telamelo.
This was a post a couple of days ago, but not sure, but think it was WayneL who posted it.
 
Its probably worth noting that now that the debt ceiling crisis has passed, there will be an absolute flood of bonds onto the market as the US govt starts filling its coffers again to pay for its spending plans.
The question is, who will buy them, and what price will they be willing to pay for them?
Mick
 
farmerge said:
Good evening Mr Telamelo.
This was a post a couple of days ago, but not sure, but think it was WayneL who posted it.
Click to expand...
Just been scouring Wayne's posts Perhaps it was sptrawler or Sir Rumpole.
Perhaps a more informed less tired mortal than me will remember.
Time for me to hit the Slumber King
If the God's are willing, I shall return tomorrow.
 
farmerge said:
I have a "thing" about using mobile phones for anything but making and receiving calls. For us definitely not to any form of banking with. That's just us, though.
Click to expand...
It’s personal thing I guess, but my phone is basically my mobile office, I just about everything on my phone. Banking, trading, reading, research etc etc
 

Pre Fed volatility IMO.
They could go either way, but I think we're going to keep hiking. Canada and Aus surprised with a hike, both citing rebounds in asset prices as part of their statements. I can't see how the Fed ignores that.
Larry Summers called for rates at 6% at the start of all this and I thought he was a nutter. Look at where we are now....

Germany was first to announce recession.
Now Euro zone, as expected.
China's exports are rumbling, so it's only a matter of time until they're next and we'll follow. May not get to official recession but probably a growth slow down.

No point relying on bonds in the short term
 
farmerge said:
Bludger we work 25 hours a day and 8 days week.
Click to expand...
depends on when i acquired the heart damage .. one professor theorizes it may have been near birth , since the surgical traces are very well healed , and the 'aneurysm/lesion' didn't cause the damage only triggered the search for the high blood reassure ( and other anomalies )
 
waterbottle said:
China MoM inflation -0.2%, PPI YoY of -4.6%.... Deflation?

China PPI now below COVID2020 levels

View attachment 158008
Click to expand...
deflation kinda surprising given that the Yuan has deteriorated fairly constantly this year, and is approaching the lows of 2022.
Normally when a currency deflates, everything else inflates.
Must be because China is a net exporter.
Mick
 
I think its a sign of chinas recovery from covid, in the past 18 months China has seen significant inflationary cost pressures due to supply chain restrictions.

Now that people can move and factories can operate more optimally, a lot of cost pressures are easing off, also western demand for goods has dropped of the covid peaks now that we can spend on experiences again, rather than just goods.

I think all this is taking pressure of Chinas cost pressures.
 
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