Inflation

[over9k]

And the data finally turns!



Pause at the next meeting now being priced in, yields all dumped, growth plays all bounced, at what point will recession expectations counteract p/e ratio adjustments?

Probably only when earnings start reporting below expectations. Seems the train's going to continue until something like that derails it and I can't think what else will do it.

 

[over9k]

View attachment 157994

Australia Household Saving Ratio

Household Saving Rate in Australia remained unchanged at 0.60 percent in the second quarter of 2024 from 0.60 percent in the first quarter of 2024. This page provides - Australia Households Savings - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

So at what point is this money:



Going to run out?

Or are we going to continue to just import money via migration?

 

[over9k]

Nasdaq now absolutely flat premarket. This might actually be the turning point. Very important night (and few days) coming up. News headlines now saying that futures are "wavering".

In this context, wavering means nervous. Markets might have finally lost their nerve. Tonight/tomorrow/monday are going to be very telling.

 

[waterbottle]

I don't think the Fed is going to pause based off of 1 jobs report whilst unemployment is still so low....

 

[over9k]

I don't think the Fed is going to pause based off of 1 jobs report whilst unemployment is still so low....

It's been about 50/50 on pause and bonds then moved quite a bit in response. Reading between the lines a bit it's almost as if they've been looking for an excuse to pause (even if just once).

Meanwhile, after a shaky/nervous start, growth plays have bounced tonight (so far).

 

[farmerge]

I am a bit of the opposite, cash in my wallet seems like lazy money just there to be spent guilt free, so it’s easy to give it away.

But cash in the bank is in my offset account earning interest working for me, spending that seems like giving away real money that sh ok I’d be working for me.

With the ease of checking your balance through phone apps, right on the phone you are using to pay with, I am not sure the new generation sees much difference between cash and digital payments.

I have a "thing" about using mobile phones for anything but making and receiving calls. For us definitely not to any form of banking with. That's just us, though.

 

[farmerge]

True story....

I often meet my missus midweek for a date. I'm in threadbare work clothes, smelling of hoof smoke, hair one step away from being in dreadlocks.

Missus is in best clothes and wearing a $70,000 ring (inherited and safest place for it).

The looks we get are priceless.

Ah Wayne as you well know it's not the looks, but what comes from the heart.
Though the looks can be an attribute of course.

 

[Telamelo]

just read the following on Google

‘Fabulous dinner’: Reserve Bank (RBA) spent $25,000 on exclusive Perth function after raising rates in May '23​

P.S. Seems to me RBA are the cause of 'fuelling inflation'

 

[farmerge]

just read the following on Google

‘Fabulous dinner’: Reserve Bank (RBA) spent $25,000 on exclusive Perth function after raising rates in May '23​

Good evening Mr Telamelo.
This was a post a couple of days ago, but not sure, but think it was WayneL who posted it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Its probably worth noting that now that the debt ceiling crisis has passed, there will be an absolute flood of bonds onto the market as the US govt starts filling its coffers again to pay for its spending plans.
The question is, who will buy them, and what price will they be willing to pay for them?
Mick

 

[farmerge]

Good evening Mr Telamelo.
This was a post a couple of days ago, but not sure, but think it was WayneL who posted it.

Just been scouring Wayne's posts Perhaps it was sptrawler or Sir Rumpole.
Perhaps a more informed less tired mortal than me will remember.
Time for me to hit the Slumber King
If the God's are willing, I shall return tomorrow.

 

[Value Collector]

I have a "thing" about using mobile phones for anything but making and receiving calls. For us definitely not to any form of banking with. That's just us, though.

It’s personal thing I guess, but my phone is basically my mobile office, I just about everything on my phone. Banking, trading, reading, research etc etc

 

[againsthegrain]

It’s personal thing I guess, but my phone is basically my mobile office, I just about everything on my phone. Banking, trading, reading, research etc etc

your much more likely to catch malware on your pc then your phone

 

[waterbottle]

It's been about 50/50 on pause and bonds then moved quite a bit in response. Reading between the lines a bit it's almost as if they've been looking for an excuse to pause (even if just once).

Meanwhile, after a shaky/nervous start, growth plays have bounced tonight (so far).

Pre Fed volatility IMO.
They could go either way, but I think we're going to keep hiking. Canada and Aus surprised with a hike, both citing rebounds in asset prices as part of their statements. I can't see how the Fed ignores that.
Larry Summers called for rates at 6% at the start of all this and I thought he was a nutter. Look at where we are now....

Germany was first to announce recession.
Now Euro zone, as expected.
China's exports are rumbling, so it's only a matter of time until they're next and we'll follow. May not get to official recession but probably a growth slow down.

No point relying on bonds in the short term

 

[divs4ever]

Bludger we work 25 hours a day and 8 days week.

depends on when i acquired the heart damage .. one professor theorizes it may have been near birth , since the surgical traces are very well healed , and the 'aneurysm/lesion' didn't cause the damage only triggered the search for the high blood reassure ( and other anomalies )

 

[divs4ever]

Or are we going to continue to just import money via migration?

that looks to be the plan ( i am not saying it is a good plan , but an explanation that makes some logic )

 

[waterbottle]

China MoM inflation -0.2%, PPI YoY of -4.6%.... Deflation?

China PPI now below COVID2020 levels

 

[farmerge]

China MoM inflation -0.2%, PPI YoY of -4.6%.... Deflation?

China PPI now below COVID2020 levels

View attachment 158008

Will this be a case of China sneezes and we all catch a deadly flu bug.

 

[mullokintyre]

China MoM inflation -0.2%, PPI YoY of -4.6%.... Deflation?

China PPI now below COVID2020 levels

View attachment 158008

deflation kinda surprising given that the Yuan has deteriorated fairly constantly this year, and is approaching the lows of 2022.
Normally when a currency deflates, everything else inflates.
Must be because China is a net exporter.
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

deflation kinda surprising given that the Yuan has deteriorated fairly constantly this year, and is approaching the lows of 2022.
Normally when a currency deflates, everything else inflates.
Must be because China is a net exporter.
Mick
View attachment 158009

I think its a sign of chinas recovery from covid, in the past 18 months China has seen significant inflationary cost pressures due to supply chain restrictions.

Now that people can move and factories can operate more optimally, a lot of cost pressures are easing off, also western demand for goods has dropped of the covid peaks now that we can spend on experiences again, rather than just goods.

I think all this is taking pressure of Chinas cost pressures.