Inflation

[over9k]

Context. The government bonds maturing on the 6th (after the debt ceiling is hit) are screaming too.

Ridiculous, all of it.

 

[farmerge]

TBH it's not really the paying of taxes I have an issue with, it's the squandering of them.

it's always so easy when it comes to spending Other People's Money re the Govt especially when rorts and doubling up occurs.

 

[farmerge]

we are in 'uncharted territory ' the impossible suddenly becomes thinkable , sure society might explode into a civil war , or rampant crime ,.. but when 'the carrot ' keeps on being tied the increasingly longer sticks , one must consider the outcome

remember Keating hoped ( compulsory ) super to replace the aged pension for retired workers , sure that seems to have gone pear-shaped , but is the plan absolutely dead , and not going to become some grotesque hybrid ( say super + food stamps/ration books ) , because you can bet defense spending won't be cut ( or parliamentary salaries )

A little bit off the thread.
Received an email today from our Health Insurer saying we are going to receive between $45 and $330 refund due to less money paid out for surgeries and the like during the Covid period.
The level of cover dictates how much will be deposited into accounts.
Nice to see a not for profit giving back to its members.
Well done HBF

 

[over9k]

Fed pumps another 25, 100% as expected.

"FOMC's inflation outlook doesn't support lowering rates".

 

[waterbottle]

Fed pumps another 25, 100% as expected.

"FOMC's inflation outlook doesn't support lowering rates".

We are in watch and wait territory

WSJ hinting at something else?

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile:

 

[waterbottle]

Are we staring into the abyss here?

A few months ago, rate pause was being interpreted as a bullish event.
Now we know that central bankers are planning to hold rates for a few months, if not the entirety of 2023.
So how are businesses expected to survive and retain employees?

 

[divs4ever]

Now we know that central bankers are planning to hold rates for a few months, if not the entirety of 2023

are they ?? ( actually going to do that pause )

now i know consensus is ' don't bet against the Fed ' , but i like to have a back-up strategy as well , for instance they might need emergency cuts , or some other extraordinary measure

if US ( and European ) banks weren't showing signs of stress, a pause or mild rises make sense , but banker stress is there to be seen

 

[over9k]

Are we staring into the abyss here?

A few months ago, rate pause was being interpreted as a bullish event.
Now we know that central bankers are planning to hold rates for a few months, if not the entirety of 2023.
So how are businesses expected to survive and retain employees?

Employment remains strong.

The stock market is not the economy.

 

[divs4ever]

The stock market is not the economy.

it was when Trump was President

haven't times changed ??

 

[moXJO]

Not sure current Labor government understands inflation.

 

[over9k]

Not sure current Labor government understands inflation.

Not sure current Labor government understands anything.

 

[sptrawler]

15% pay rise for aged care workers +flow on, private sector increase wages to hold staff, costs go up.

The federal government will commit a record $11.3bn in next week's budget to fund a 15% pay rise for aged care workers in line with the Fair Work Commission's order for staff in the sector.3 hours ago

Inflation isn't going down IMO, only the value of the dollar. 1970's feel about all this.
People thinking they are going to have a comfortable retirement on super, had better up the salary sacrifice IMO. ?

 

[divs4ever]

Inflation isn't going down IMO, only the value of the dollar. 1970's feel about all this.

that is the instinct i am going with ( but do have alternate strategies just in case )

 

[waterbottle]

Employment remains strong.

The stock market is not the economy.

Employment is always strong before it becomes weak though

 

[over9k]

Employment is always strong before it becomes weak though

True but the fed A: isn't entirely stupid and B: is responsive (mostly).

Their previous comments "inflation outlook doesn't support lower rates" is accurate - the U.S economy is actually in excellent shape, relatively speaking.

 

[Smurf1976]

now i know consensus is ' don't bet against the Fed ' , but i like to have a back-up strategy as well , for instance they might need emergency cuts , or some other extraordinary measure

Track record is they'll keep raising rates until something breaks. The question is what breaks and when, not if it will occur.

 

[waterbottle]

True but the fed A: isn't entirely stupid and B: is responsive (mostly).

Their previous comments "inflation outlook doesn't support lower rates" is accurate - the U.S economy is actually in excellent shape, relatively speaking.

Nah, it's not that the Fed is stupid or unresponsive. It's that they're acting on delayed information. The same happened in the run-up to the GFC, everything looked great until it didn't.

 

[over9k]

I'd hardly call one month a catastrophe causing data delay.

Like I said, the u.s economy can handle much higher rates than everyone else.

Even aus should be much higher but we've been over the corruption, being on the take from the housing lobby etc etc that'll mean far too little actually happens here.

At least NZ is doing the right thing.

 

[JohnDe]

Employment is always strong before it becomes weak though

Crash repair industry is struggling to replace retiring staff, industry average for job starts is getting close to 6 months.