Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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waterbottle said:
I've been watching a few commentators. Their opinion is that we're going to be in for a deflationary shock, particularly given the reducing in M2 money supply.
I think that's supported by the overall downward trend on crude, as well as GDP results coming in worse than expected for parts of the EU and the US.
Let's see what happens in the financial world....
Click to expand...
Cheques and balances???
 
divs4ever said:
we don't refine much currently ( there is one refinery that NHC supplies , don't know how many more refine rather than store or blend )

seems someone did the calculations and thought it was cheaper to refine off-shore
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That would be right. Pay someone else to do what could be done here. Sell the farm off and then buy the product back.
 
farmerge said:
That would be right. Pay someone else to do what could be done here. Sell the farm off and then buy the product back.
Click to expand...
from memory the logic was the existing refineries back then , were getting old , creaky and leaky , and needed serious work/upgrade ( well that was the story ) , maybe they have been scheming this climate thing for longer than imagined ( trying to get rid off fossil fuels by 2030 or earlier )

but yes seen several businesses sell existing property and then lease it back ( it's one thing to sell into a REIT you control , but some don't even do that , i hope they are retiring debt with the proceeds )
 
farmerge said:
Makes no sense to me. If importing why the hell are we exporting!!
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Lack of refining and geography is one.

Properties of the oil versus product demand is the other.

~85% of the Australian oil production is in WA, SA, NT whereas the two remaining refineries are in Qld and Vic, both of which have not zero but certainly quite minor oil production these days.

Second issue is that a large portion of Australian petroleum consumption is diesel, fuel oil, lubricants or bitumen all of which are medium to heavy refinery products, whereas what we produce from the ground is primarily light crude oil, condensate and LPG. So a mismatch there.

So in economic terms, oil is primarily an import from Australia's perspective despite the fact that we export most of the crude, condensate and LPG we take out of the ground. The volume and value of imports is far higher.

For a few facts and figures:

Australian crude and condensate production in 2022 = 18,047 ML

Australian LPG production = 5528 ML

Australian refinery production = 14,878 ML using 27% Australian feedstock

Australian sales of refined products = 57,174 ML

Diesel = 31,427 ML
Petrol = 15,973 ML
Aviation turbine fuel = 6227 ML
LPG = 1558 ML
Fuel oil = 841 ML
Lubricants = 301 ML
Aviation gasoline = 66 ML
Other products = 781 ML

Above figures derived from Australian Government statistics.
 
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frugal.rock said:
Yep, can't use the expression "cheap as chips" anymore.
That saying is now a falsehood and fallacy.

I realised today, that butter is up over 200% in the last few years.

Coles branded frozen meals up 25% in one step very recently (from $3.20 to a rounded $4).
And their still crap ?
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Look, I'm just saying:

3245235234623652435.jpg

>_>
 
sptrawler said:
Well it looks like the RBA is still doing its job, despite the pressure. :xyxthumbs

www.abc.net.au

Reserve Bank hikes cash rate to 3.85 per cent as Qantas announces Alan Joyce's successor — as it happened

The RBA has surprised markets and economists by lifting interest rates to 3.85 per cent, after being widely predicted to stay on hold for a second month. Look back on the day's events as they happened with our blog.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Click to expand...
well there is a school of 'hike until something breaks '

so far as i can tell , nothing has broken in Australia , yet

there are signs of breakages sprinkled elsewhere around the globe , so there is still contagion risk , and things are uncomfortable in many places in Australia to be sure , but banks are restructuring at their pace , the construction industry is hurting but not in collapse .

is the RBA hoping that conditions elsewhere will take the inflation pressure away from Australia
we would have been better situated with a stronger manufacturing base , but here we are
 
divs4ever said:
well there is a school of 'hike until something breaks '

so far as i can tell , nothing has broken in Australia , yet

there are signs of breakages sprinkled elsewhere around the globe , so there is still contagion risk , and things are uncomfortable in many places in Australia to be sure , but banks are restructuring at their pace , the construction industry is hurting but not in collapse .

is the RBA hoping that conditions elsewhere will take the inflation pressure away from Australia
we would have been better situated with a stronger manufacturing base , but here we are
Click to expand...
Add to that the Sydney/Melbourne ponzi is kicking off again, so have the rise in interest rates changed much? Well probably at the bottom of the pecking order it has made life much more difficult, but where the Govt wanted to dampen demand it has just kept on keeping on.

Meanwhile the RBA soldiers on with trying to keep a lid on inflation, when 50% of the population live in the ponzi scheme area and everyone wants to get on board. Sooner or later the bubble has to be popped, the longer it is left the bigger it gets.

This is the main issue, that no one wants to address and the answer is buried deep in the article, where it is lost:

www.abc.net.au

Phasing out property tax breaks could save $74b but it also could create 'significant economic shock'

The Parliamentary Budget Office warns phasing out property tax breaks may "trigger a significant economic shock". That's why next week's budget is more focused on increasing the supply of housing rather than trying to make housing affordable by reducing house prices.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Treasury tax statements in 2019-2020 found three-quarters of the tax deductions claimed using negative gearing went to the top 10 per cent of earners.
While that may be the case, the PBO warns that changing the status quo could see some property owners "pushed into negative equity, making it detrimental to sell the property and, potentially, creating risks for the banking system, possibly leading to more defaults".

"A sudden decline in house prices, and higher rents, may also trigger a significant economic shock, and resulting negative fiscal consequences, partly or fully offsetting the additional revenue. For example, lower-than-anticipated capital gains and corresponding tax," the PBO says.
"If the price of the investment property has grown more than twice as fast as CPI over the period of ownership, as has likely been the case over the past few years, then the investor would have a high incentive to sell."

However, Max Chandler-Mather says "the government keeps tinkering around the edges" on housing policy and, over time, the budgetary impact will be beneficial.

"If we do not tackle the scourge of massive tax concessions for property investors — negative gearing, capital gains tax — then we are going to see another generation of people locked out of buying their first home," he says.

"I think what the government needs to realise is that they're here to represent every Australian, not just those who currently make billions of dollars off the property system."
 
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