Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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over9k said:
Believe me, it's the only thing they respond to. The scum know the legal system ridiculously well. Most of them are already semi-trained paralegals.

The last problem ones we had were with dogs. Bit of context here: Our neighbours (lovely people) own a place about two doors up from us. Shithole of a place but was bought for the land to subdivide it. Just renting it out in the meantime. But being a shithole, it's not the type of place a normal person would rent (or rent willingly).

Anyways, typical bogan scum dogs, they all look the same, they got out one day and attacked my father (on our property no less). After he fought them off I went over to attempt (attempt) a very polite chat to basically just say look, I've got two disabled parents and a toddler here, this can't happen again (they would have killed the toddler and possibly my mother too on the spot), this can't happen again. Made a very deliberate point of coming in from the front driveway, called out as I did it (politely), sleeves rolled up and hands out so I'm clearly not carrying a weapon, a game I know all too well.

I didn't even make it to the front door. The bitch (the woman, not the dog) comes out of the place storming. Screaming her head off, had grabbed a knife out of the block on the way out, came and got right in my face to let me know she had it, sprayed/half spat in my face, screaming to "get off her property", the works. Saying and doing the kinds of things that a normal person just doesn't say (or even know to say). CLEARLY not her first time, she knew exactly what she could and couldn't do and knew exactly what I could and couldn't do either.

However, this not being my first time either, I knew full well what was going on and what I was dealing with - I just stood my ground knowing full well she knew she'd never be able to argue that I was some kind of threat and the whole thing was just some absolute scum being absolute scum but once she'd given me the "get off my property" line I also did in fact have to leave, she couldn't argue it was a threat but legally speaking it does become trespassing. I gave her "I just want to talk, so you don't want to listen?", still got the same almost spit in the face/get off my property line, said "ok then", walked back home.

Reported the dogs to the council and the incident to the police, dog rangers showed up with a police escort no less, cops charged her with threatening with a deadly weapon (she denied everything but as the cops said, a magistrate would never believe her as this is a pretty ******* strange thing to make up and wouldn't you know it she already had a record, because of course she did), dogs got classified as dangerous, legally speaking it was a complete shitshow.

I head over to the neighbours and ask if they've had any problems, wouldn't you know it these dogs have been out before and my neighbour's daughter and her friend had had to climb on top of a rainwater tank to get away from them or god knows what would have happened, I mean gee, there's a history here and they're a real problem, how surprising.

I get chatting to the neighbour and we devise a plan because he was fed up with the scum as well.

The next day: Everyone stays indoors, we wait for the scum to leave their house, the neighbour goes over and undoes their gate and then legs it back to his place. The waiting game then begins.

All of about five minutes later the dogs were out and had made their way onto our property, which, with the history they had, meant they were now total fair game and so I was within my rights to (and I did) shoot the pair of them on the spot.

I call the cops, let them know what's happened, cops come over and see the animals and take a report from me but they let me know that legally speaking I'm completely in the clear, the bodies of the animals are taken over to the neighbour, she reacts in the exact way you'd expect, they let her know she doesn't have a leg to stand on (she wanted me charged, because of course she did), see you later.

This was all a couple of months ago and hilariously, they were evicted less than a week later (take one look at the state of the place and you'll be able to see why) and there's no forwarding address so they can't even find her to serve her for the court date.

Anyone that's dealt with these types (cops will tell you this) will tell you that it's actually the women that are the most aggressive. They think they're untouchable because they're female and so act accordingly. They'll try to claim intimidation if you inspect the property, they'll claim "Hurr he is big man and I was tiny scared woman" after they pull a knife on you like she did to me, they'll try to claim harassment, they'll play the damsel in distress card as casually as you make a coffee. You HAVE to deal with them in a particular way (make sure you get the legal paper trail started immediately before doing anything else) or you'll have problems like you cannot imagine.
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Billiant stuff. A man of my ilk. Obviously 2 direct hits.
Had the same sort of thing on the legal side. These types know the law inside out and usually better than the lawyers.

9k not trying to upstage you but this I have to tell you.
The scum we had unfortunately, had been living up north of us a bit. The Bailiff knew the family well. Were squating in an old house, strange that, on a few acres and the owner couldn't get them out.
Now this gengtleman owned a very large excavtor, and wanted to demolish this house to progress forward.
He thought around 2am in the morning would be a good time to do the demolishion work.
Out the scum scurred like rats from a sinking ship.
Apparaently the local boys in blue were all suffering eye sight and hearing problems when the scum fronted the cop shop that morning.
Then unfortunately for me they became my tenants from hell.
 
farmerge said:
Billiant stuff. A man of my ilk. Obviously 2 direct hits.
Had the same sort of thing on the legal side. These types know the law inside out and usually better than the lawyers.

9k not trying to upstage you but this I have to tell you.
The scum we had unfortunately, had been living up north of us a bit. The Bailiff knew the family well. Were squating in an old house, strange that, on a few acres and the owner couldn't get them out.
Now this gengtleman owned a very large excavtor, and wanted to demolish this house to progress forward.
He thought around 2am in the morning would be a good time to do the demolishion work.
Out the scum scurred like rats from a sinking ship.
Apparaently the local boys in blue were all suffering eye sight and hearing problems when the scum fronted the cop shop that morning.
Then unfortunately for me they became my tenants from hell.
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Ooh I like that. Personally, I would have started a fire somewhere plausible for a fire to start (without a traceable accelerant of course) but I'm a complete pyromaniac and don't own a digger so I've gotta work with what I have.

I have heard about trees "accidentally" being felled on houses before too.
 
farmerge said:
Sadly what happend all those yars ago, it was a case of I'll take your money and do little to nothing to earn it.
The only good thing that has come to pass, is that this particular agent is now a worm farm.
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still plenty of second rate agents and (IMO ) too few good ones , lucky me have had the pleasure to meet two ( good ones )
 
Meanwhile:


www.rba.gov.au

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision - March 2023 | Media Releases

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60 per cent.
www.rba.gov.au www.rba.gov.au

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3.50 per cent.

Global inflation remains very high. In headline terms it is moderating, although services price inflation remains elevated in many economies. It will be some time before inflation is back to target rates. The outlook for the global economy remains subdued, with below average growth expected this year and next.

The monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked in Australia. Goods price inflation is expected to moderate over the months ahead due to both global developments and softer demand in Australia. Services price inflation remains high, with strong demand for some services over the summer. Rents are increasing at the fastest rate in some years, with vacancy rates low in many parts of the country. The central forecast is for inflation to decline this year and next, to be around 3 per cent in mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case.

Growth in the Australian economy has slowed, with GDP increasing by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.7 per cent over the year. Growth over the next couple of years is expected to be below trend. Household consumption growth has slowed due to the tighter financial conditions and the outlook for housing construction has softened. In contrast, the outlook for business investment remains positive, with many businesses operating at a very high level of capacity utilisation.

The labour market remains very tight, although conditions have eased a little. The unemployment rate remains at close to a 50-year low. Employment fell in January, but this partly reflects changing seasonal patterns in labour hiring. Many firms continue to experience difficulty hiring workers, although some report a recent easing in labour shortages. As economic growth slows, unemployment is expected to increase.

Wages growth is continuing to pick up in response to the tight labour market and higher inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target and recent data suggest a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another. The Board, however, remains alert to the risk of a prices-wages spiral, given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the historically low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.

The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of the cumulative increase in interest rates is yet to be felt in mortgage payments. There is uncertainty around the timing and extent of the slowdown in household spending. Some households have substantial savings buffers, but others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their budgets due to higher interest rates and the increase in the cost of living. Household balance sheets are also being affected by the decline in housing prices. Another source of uncertainty is how the global economy responds to the large and rapid increase in interest rates around the world. These uncertainties mean that there are a range of potential scenarios for the Australian economy.

The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. The Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent target range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.

The Board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary. In assessing when and how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.



I don't think it's going to be temporary.
 
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"Have we just... died on the idea of any rate cuts in 2023?"

Lol. 107 points over guidance is now being priced in. Question being asked several months too late. Of course they have. They were never going to cut rates this year because the inflation was never going to be transitory.

As I said in a previous post (and have been saying for months), we're going to see rates pump and then best case scenario the higher rates aren't going anywhere because the inflation trends (the structural stuff) aren't going anywhere.

To be honest with everyone, I actually think perhaps another couple of hikes is more likely than even just remaining paused, let alone a few reductions after pausing. So we might get to later in the year end of Q3/start of Q4, they'll pause the hikes "for now", the next batch of data will then come out terrible and then they'll go "you know what, we can't stop here any more, we actually need to raise even more".


So rates will look something like the green line here:

Iyxub.png
 
Smurf1976 said:
Noting that the 10 year is just under 4% at present so there's also the issue of a rather substantial inversion which has been persistent for an extended period now. :2twocents
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Yeah, so how's it going to deinvert?
 
Interestingly, Poland and Canada have now paused their hikes. BoE came out last week to say they were going to pause too. Phil Lowe mentioned yesterday that a pause was close.

Not sure how thats going to work when the CBers are meant to be working together.
 
waterbottle said:
Interestingly, Poland and Canada have now paused their hikes. BoE came out last week to say they were going to pause too. Phil Lowe mentioned yesterday that a pause was close.

Not sure how thats going to work when the CBers are meant to be working together.
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Like in the GFC when they actively lied to try to regain confidence in the markets, they're doing the same thing this time around with inflation.

None of them are going to get up in front of the news and admit that we're all boned because that would cause armageddon/stop the wheel turning. There's also the awkward little issue of admitting a problem being one step from admitting they've f**ked up which is one step from them being held accountable for said fcukup.

"Nobody saw this coming", remember?
 

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