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Inflation

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over9k said:
You're making an argument I never disagreed with, with a link that doesn't say what you think it does, against an argument I never made.

But keep trying to misdirect
Click to expand...

Ok, I'm glad that you finally see it.

"In response to the pandemic the world’s central banks printed a lot of money. Money printing, historically at least, has been inflationary. Close to 30% of the dollars in circulation today in the global financial system were printed in the last two years. It’s no coincidence, we would argue, that many of the 2 year inflation numbers for assets like housing, or even personal consumption goods like cars or eating out, have seen prices rise by about 30%. All of that new money had to find somewhere to go."
 
Oh dear, you truly are just over9.

Your precious "the", that I said, came in post #3663. My first comment in response to your post "It is a major contributing factor", came in post #3636
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I don't know what you're trying to prove by showing me what I know I said and agree with. I agree that the Russian oil sanction is not a major contributor to the current high inflation. Whereas you are trying to prove what you said "Absolute garbage." "It is a major contributing factor, to be fair."​
​
I'm glad you mentioned the "strawman argument" first, pretty much what you have been doing for the past few posts.​
 
How much more plainly can I state this?

I didn't make the argument you thought I did, your link doesn't make the argument that you think it does either, and even if it did, it would still be as wrong as you are.
 
Like I said, if you think the russia-ukraine war is not a major contributing factor to inflation, you're a moron. And if you've found someone else that thinks otherwise (they don't), they're as wrong as you are.
 
over9k said:
How much more plainly can I state this?

I didn't make the argument you thought I did, your link doesn't make the argument that you think it does either, and even if it did, it would still be as wrong as you are.
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I think this is the 3rd customer I witnessed you destroy so far ?
 
over9k said:
How much more plainly can I state this?

I didn't make the argument you thought I did, your link doesn't make the argument that you think it does either, and even if it did, it would still be as wrong as you are.
Click to expand...

Your argument

"Absolute garbage. The idea that you can impose the kind of sanctions that we have on the amount of energy that we have without it creating a significant inflationary effect is absolutely absurd.

That's not to say there aren't other contributors, but the idea that the oil etc sanctions are not a major factor is beyond ridiculous."​

My point of view has always been the same - the war has/is causing cost pressures that contribute to inflation, but the biggest and initial cause of current inflation pressures is Covid/lock-downs/money printing/extremely low interest rates.

Is Inflation Putin’s Fault?​

Large sections of populations in the developed world now face a ‘cost of living crisis’, as their incomes are not keeping up with inflation in energy, food, and other living expenses.
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Cumulative Impact of COVID-19:

COVID-19 is an unprecedented global public health emergency that affected almost every industry, and the long-term impacts are projected to reflect on the growth of various end-use industries during the forecast period. This ongoing research amplifies the research framework to ensure the inclusion of underlying COVID-19 issues and potential paths forward. The report delivers insights on COVID-19, considering the changes in consumer behavior and demand, purchasing patterns, re-routing of the supply chain, dynamics of current market forces, and the significant interventions of governments.

Cumulative Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict:

We continuously monitor and update reports considering unceasing political and economic uncertainty due to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Negative impacts are globally foreseen, especially across Eastern Europe, European Union, Eastern & Central Asia, and the United States.
 
waterbottle said:
Baltic dry index continues to head downwards.... How come China re opening isn't increasing trade?
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And just to reinforce that ...
From Freight Waves
Is that last bit merely wishful thinking?
Mick
 
 
waterbottle said:
Sounds like the Western consumer is slowly dying.

Is this the calm before a recession hits?
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I don't think the Western consumers are dying, but prices are set at the margins.

A minority of folks who can no longer afford inflated prices, May just effect disinflation or even deflation.

... Even possibly a recession or depression
 
JohnDe said:
My point of view has always been the same - the war has/is causing cost pressures that contribute to inflation, but the biggest and initial cause of current inflation pressures is Covid/lock-downs/money printing/extremely low interest rates.
Click to expand...
When have I ever said otherwise?

See what I think you've done john is mistake the phrase "a major contributing factor" to mean "the cause of most of it".
 
waterbottle said:
Baltic dry index continues to head downwards.... How come China re opening isn't increasing trade?
Click to expand...
China's economy is fundamentally fcuked but as I've pointed out many times before, an awful lot of *things* were bought in the pandemic and those things don't need to be bought again - furniture, whitegoods, electronics etc.

If you take a look at the inflation data you'll see that the "stickiest" is in services:



vs



So you lift covid restrictions and you have a massive amount of pent up demand to go and do stuff (movies, ski trips, nightclubs, comedy shows, anything) and about 10 years' worth of in-home goods demand satisfied in all of about 18 months through the pandemic so demand for goods plummets and realisable demand for services skyrockets at the same time and here we are - what we could intuit with a little understanding of human behaviour and spending habits being shown in the exactly expected divergence/bifurcation of the data.

All that money that was being spent on goods is now being spent on services and so the jobs market remains extremely strong because the consumer still has a lot of cash left over and they're dying to spend it on services, which are overwhelmingly performed in person, i.e within the country's borders. So the demand is actually going internally in countries rather than just demanding more of something produced overseas.

In other words, it's an increase in demand for an american or australian's labour, not a chinese factory worker's. So, you get a massive circular-flow effect/demand for labour in your own country, not someone else's. From that perspective, the authorities couldn't have asked for a better outcome.

And considering how inelastic demand for all this stuff is on account of how pent up the demand is/was, until consumers either run out of that money or won't spent it any more (and there's a LOT of pent up demand and a LOT of money was printed) then we will continue to see this surge in demand for services and extremely strong jobs numbers.

So that's the demand side. I'll get to the supply side in a few hours, just gotta hit the gym first.
 
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