Inflation

[over9k]

Bought FNGD, chickened out of SOXS

I torched mine a few days back and degen'd some FNGU at 401 but never made a bet against tech. You'll be nicely into the green

 

[SirRumpole]

Reserve Bank 'gaslighting' consumers over inflation say economists as real wages fall by a record amount.

Reserve Bank accused of 'economic gaslighting' as wages growth misses forecasts, again

Wages growth again misses Reserve Bank and economist forecasts, as workers experience their biggest decline in real purchasing power on record.

www.abc.net.au

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 153428

demand side going

Possibly going the same way as Lithium.

 

[waterbottle]

German inflation at 8.7% y.oy in Feb, up from 8.6% in Jan...

Meanwhile, short term bonds cracking higher, US 6 months at 5.14%, long-dated bonds cracking lower....

 

[waterbottle]

This must be what peak inflation is meant to look like

Domino’s Plunges Most on Record as Customers Shun Price Hikes

(Bloomberg) -- Shares of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd. plummeted the most on record in Sydney after the pizza chain operator said its first-half earnings fell as customers spurned price increases meant to offset inflationary pressures.Most Read from BloombergHow Much Do Investors Say They Need...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[divs4ever]

Energy prices have peaked, because of a mild European winter, contingency plans for electricity production seem to be working, consumers have reduced energy consumption, other sources of energy have come on board, and natural gas prices have dropped in Europe.

we will see about that ( peaked energy prices )

Europe ( and UK ) still have to replenish energy reserves for the coming year and emergencies

fairly hard to make extra armaments for the Ukraine conflict when you have basically de-industrialized yourself

remember the EU are the same clowns that were happy with negative yielding bonds a while back ( too WOKE to know they are broke )

 

[divs4ever]

This must be what peak inflation is meant to look like

Domino’s Plunges Most on Record as Customers Shun Price Hikes

(Bloomberg) -- Shares of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd. plummeted the most on record in Sydney after the pizza chain operator said its first-half earnings fell as customers spurned price increases meant to offset inflationary pressures.Most Read from BloombergHow Much Do Investors Say They Need...

finance.yahoo.com

i don't know what current 'inflation' is meant to look like , but in the '70s it bit HARD ( on real people ) remember all those hippies that saved money on haircuts and new clothes and it was often cheaper NOT to work ( or rent a house/flat ) just commune around in a rural setting smoking herbs ( and avoiding tobacco and alcohol taxes )

 

[waterbottle]

Data from UMich survey of consumers. Are we there yet?

 

[divs4ever]

Data from UMich survey of consumers. Are we there yet?

View attachment 153441
View attachment 153442

would they tell us the truth ( within two years ) if we were ( there ) ??

 

[Knobby22]

Another good article by Steven Bartholomew in Australia's last independent newspaper network.
Good news? USA, Europe, growth close to or in the positive in many areas.
Result? More interest rate rises than we think to come.
Bad for the markets.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-is-bad-news-for-markets-20230222-p5cmh0.html

 

[moXJO]

I'm expecting another dip. Inflation isn't going away and interest rises are going to hit hard. I'm looking at taking some profits and will sit out for a while.

 

[Jeda]

i don't know what current 'inflation' is meant to look like , but in the '70s it bit HARD ( on real people ) remember all those hippies that saved money on haircuts and new clothes and it was often cheaper NOT to work ( or rent a house/flat ) just commune around in a rural setting smoking herbs ( and avoiding tobacco and alcohol taxes )

Nothing wrong with a good hippie or two

a mate involved in wholesale just put the finishing touches on her price list all going up significantly ?

 

[over9k]

I'm expecting another dip. Inflation isn't going away and interest rises are going to hit hard. I'm looking at taking some profits and will sit out for a while.

Bit late moxy :/

Neither. I was all ready to go 50% into FNGU until the tech earnings last night flipped everything. Now, now I agree with a headline I just saw about how things are now "extremely uncertain".

It might be a hold cash and pucker for a while now.

Nvidia just posted far better than expected numbers and was +9% in aftermarket trading last night. Futures are deep into the green at the moment too.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm expecting another dip. Inflation isn't going away and interest rises are going to hit hard. I'm looking at taking some profits and will sit out for a while.

I'm not sure it is done with yet, waiting for one more step up and locking in the term deposit for 3-5years, not sure which yet.

 

[moXJO]

Bit late moxy :/

All my stuff is holding up, Just starting to get hit this week ( I haven't been paying attention lately to the market though). I let trailing stops do their job.

I'm expecting a dip to lows at some stage. But honestly I'm not sure when that's going to hit.
I'll have to shorten my trading time frame as well. Been holding some of these longs for a few months.

 

[moXJO]

I'm not sure it is done with yet, waiting for one more step up and locking in the term deposit for 3-5years, not sure which yet.

Yeah I was listening to a bear the other day and his arguments were plausible.
I also saw a bunch of gyms go out of business which is my leading indicator to hard recession.
So I'm in a bearish mood. I'll let the stops take me out as it will probably run.

 

[waterbottle]

I'm expecting another dip. Inflation isn't going away and interest rises are going to hit hard. I'm looking at taking some profits and will sit out for a while.

I'm interested: why do you think there'll be another dip?

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm interested: why do you think there'll be another dip?

So far as the indices are concerned, they've held up but a lot of individual stocks are already well past their peak for this recent rally.

The big names quite likely will follow.

 

[sptrawler]

So far as the indices are concerned, they've held up but a lot of individual stocks are already well past their peak for this recent rally.

The big names quite likely will follow.

Yes I think a lot of the stocks have peaked, I'm only into dividends and renewable linked shares, that are going to get Govt injections as they chase the holy grail.
As far as inflation goes, I'm seeing a drop of in consumer activity, but I'm also seeing price increases in cost of staples at the two major supermarkets and consumers can't avoid a lot of those rises.
Just my two cents worth.

 

[over9k]

I'm interested: why do you think there'll be another dip?

This is my reason for AU, USA's a different kettle of fish.