over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,290
- Reactions
- 7,500
Might be a good point to time a bet against actually. Hmm. My degen 3LNI is going to/has already run hard, might be a rotation point coming up soon.
Might be a good point to time a bet against actually. Hmm. My degen 3LNI is going to/has already run hard, might be a rotation point coming up soon.This is one of those classic "how long can the market remain irrational before I become insolvent" moments.
Bonds behaving differently to equities...
I think you can make a case for either direction - at least in the short term.
As Yogi Berra said " It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. "I think you can make a case for either direction - at least in the short term.
Bullish = China open, CPI dropping, jobs numbers, no meeting until feb
Bearish = 2/10 yield inversion deepens, unemployment is too low, fed warns on market euphoria.
Long-term depends on what the Fed does but historically, markets don't bottom until the Fed has finished cutting - they haven't even finished hiking yet.
Everyone thinks we will go into a recession. We probably will. Lots of people think this will result in the bear market getting worse. I don’t—it is already priced in. Stocks going down 25% in 2022 were priced in the recession. This has happened countless times throughout history—the stock market drops, and then we get the recession. By the time we get the recession, stocks are going up again.
What really interests me is the yield curve, which is massively inverted at the moment. One of the easiest and most obvious trades seems to be the yield curve steepener, which would result in short-term rates going down relative to long-term rates.
The bull steepener, as it is known, is one of the easiest trades in finance. ....And everyone knows that it’s not the yield curve inversion that coincides with the recession—it’s actually the steepening that follows.
Almost as if it's much harder to make money in a bear market hey?
The graph from ABS says it allAustralian CPI increases to 7.3%.... Time to hike?
CPI up and retail sales up.The graph from ABS says it all
Probably the most benign spin one could put on it is that it has stabilised, but not yet coming down.
How will the RBA interpret it is the big question.
View attachment 151529
Mick
That is a general observation from the street level economy thread. People spending living the good life, unaffected by the current rates as it seems. Perhaps a soft start in Feb with .25 to warm up the table for next .50 raise after? Or perhaps hard and sweet with 2 x .50 to start the year we will seeCPI up and retail sales up.
I don't think you can justify any other move except to hike.
It seems to me that without any overseas influences that Australia can probably truck along quite nicely through this period, with the damage pretty much confined to the fringes ( though it must be said that prices are set at the fringe).That is a general observation from the street level economy thread. People spending living the good life, unaffected by the current rates as it seems. Perhaps a soft start in Feb with .25 to warm up the table for next .50 raise after? Or perhaps hard and sweet with 2 x .50 to start the year we will see
Fixed income has already priced another 50 in by juneAustralian CPI increases to 7.3%.... Time to hike?
This guy is great on a lot of things and also terrible on a lot of things (but sounds great).
Zeihan's latest two cents on europe/winter/energy
This guy is great on a lot of things and also terrible on a lot of things (but sounds great).
No he quotes figures in other videos that are wrong. Is off with what's actually going on in certain areas.Can't really blame him for not being able to predict a hot European winter...
I think periods like 2022 tend to attract alot of bearish insight that feeds into an echo chamber. It's very easy to get wrapped up into it - I've caught myself doing this too. Zeihan produces some great bear soma, that although is logical, is not able to predict the unpredictable, which tends to undo many a bear thesis...
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?