Plenty of work for most. The mining boom was just about to get going and property went 6x not long after. Tech wrecked for a bit, gold was super cheap. I was in Brisbane about 2000-2001 and Australia was on the cusp of exploding into opportunities.
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Two peaks to inflation?
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NORMALLY , yes
you have the original cost impact , say, fuel price rises , or commodity price spikes , and as consumer prices rises , the workers demand wage rises , further impacting production/manufacturing costs which businesses mostly needing to pass on the increased costs , followed by extra wage demands risking a CPI/wage spiral .
unfortunately once the spiral gets going the usual tool is massive interest rises which smashes demand among the masses , triggering public unrest , and that is normally distracted by triggering a MAJOR war , getting the fit young males killed somewhere else ( not on the steps of parliament )
( yes i follow the theory , inflation is the consequence of extra currency injection , but most don't see it that way )
HOWEVER it MIGHT be different this time ( and we have French-style regime changes )
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if Trump was US President a major war was possible , but since he isn't a civil war ( or revolution ) is more likely
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I would disagree, as Ukraine has demonstrated:
again and again, the US goes to serious war when under Democrats, not Republicans and we are already witnessing a major hardly proxy war there.
I doubt the US can afford, militarily speaking, starting a new one now: just depleted stocks of everything.
over9k
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A little bit of History from Reuters might be required here.
Carter was a democrat, Ford a republican.
World War 2 , Democrat Harry Truman in charge.
Korean War, Democrat Harry tTuman again.
Vietnam - Eisenhower, republican, sent first aid to South Vietnam, also ordered the coups in Iran and Guatamalea.
Vietnam - Big time, democrat JF Kennedy upped the ante in Vietnam and started the Bay of Pigs confrontation with USSR.
Vietnam Upped the ante again , democrat Lyndon Johnson, also got involved in Laos and Cambodia
Vietnam end, republican, Richard Nixon, also got involved in Yom Kippur between Israel , Egypt and Syria. Nixon also started the "War on drugs".
Invasion of Grenada - Republican Ronald Reagan , also upped the anti with the bombing of Libya, involved in Iran Iraq war, plus sending troops to Lebanon.
First Persian Gulf War - George H.W. Bush plus invasion of panama.
Afghanistan -Republican George W Bush started it, he also started the war on Iraq
Haiti uprising - Democrat Bill Clinton sent troops to Haiti and also to the balkans war
Barak Obama democrat did not order any invasions, the United States and U.S. allies conducted months-long air strikes in Libya and military operations against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria .
Mick
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I like when you add facts to my points?
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it is mostly about the morale of the military look at Italy's successful campaign ( sarcasm ) against Ethiopia , or when the French were evicted from Vietnam ,
they might enter a war under a Democrat leader , but would they fight hard for Biden's White House
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Maybe why they fight to the last Ukrainian and have limited US citizens on the ground
JohnDe
La dolce vita
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has hints of WW1 , when the US happily sold weapons for the first half of it
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wasn't all that unprovoked
the US had put sanctions on Japan earlier and sent some fighter pilots to help China resist , now sure Japan had occupied Korea , Manchuria and parts of China , but there was plenty of activity before Pearl Harbour
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Risk back on? Have we got a bear market rally here until the next Fed meeting thanks to the China re-opening?
US 10 year down
DXY down
Equities rallying
Crypto up
US CPI numbers likely to show continued down trend, so unless there's a surprise to the upside, I can't see what would interrupt a rally.
US 10 year down
DXY down
Equities rallying
Crypto up
US CPI numbers likely to show continued down trend, so unless there's a surprise to the upside, I can't see what would interrupt a rally.
over9k
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China reopening narrative.
Panic buys at open, flog at open, buy at close, groundhog day.
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I saw that too.
Lends credence to a double spike in inflation as per Burry. What was oil doing when China was open?
over9k
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It's even all over the news that they (chinese government) are mulling more stimulus now too.
AUD's pulled hard the last few days in response but you've got to think about the big picture here and look at china as a whole, it's approaching demographic winter and its economy is the most... precarious in the world. And that's before we even think about all the sanctions that keep getting put on them.
Any bump we see will not be long lived.
AUD's pulled hard the last few days in response but you've got to think about the big picture here and look at china as a whole, it's approaching demographic winter and its economy is the most... precarious in the world. And that's before we even think about all the sanctions that keep getting put on them.
Any bump we see will not be long lived.
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This is one of those classic "how long can the market remain irrational before I become insolvent" moments.
Bonds behaving differently to equities...
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