over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,244
- Reactions
- 7,355
Cam you list a few examples?
- Joined
- 6 September 2016
- Posts
- 1,260
- Reactions
- 1,597
Time for a breather methinks. It could be a retracement, could be a consolidation, but I think it won't be up.
- Joined
- 3 November 2013
- Posts
- 1,568
- Reactions
- 2,771
Whats your take on CPI data tonight? Consensus is for 0% MoM but nowcast says otherwise :/
Attachments
sinaloa cartel assessment was sketch.
Some of the figures he is sprouting in the evs episode is way out.
He said Putin was mid 60s when he is 70.
His assessment on Zhao Lijian was wrong. He got dumped from his minute of silence when asked about the protests. Not because of wolf warrior standing. They still have multiple hard-liners.
- Joined
- 6 September 2016
- Posts
- 1,260
- Reactions
- 1,597
Who knows.
Gun to my head, I would say surprise to the downside vs consensus. Mid 6 on headline and mid 5 on core.
To me, it's irrelevant.
- Joined
- 3 November 2013
- Posts
- 1,568
- Reactions
- 2,771
Interesting, why's it irrelevant? Do you think the rally will halt for some other reason?
- Joined
- 6 September 2016
- Posts
- 1,260
- Reactions
- 1,597
It's a lagging indicator of what happened over the last year. Shouldn't we be interested in what's happening next not what happened last?
Yes.
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,244
- Reactions
- 7,355
I don't think the fed has done a single thing different to exactly what it said it was going to do and they're on record saying the next one will be a 50 so I'd be banking on that.
- Joined
- 3 November 2013
- Posts
- 1,568
- Reactions
- 2,771
I agree, although it does tend to move markets. Admittedly, it might be short-lived.
What is the other factor do you think will halt this rally?
- Joined
- 3 November 2013
- Posts
- 1,568
- Reactions
- 2,771
- Joined
- 6 September 2016
- Posts
- 1,260
- Reactions
- 1,597
I already tried to convince y'all that it doesn't move markets, but *shrug*, believe what you like.
I watch a bunch of things, but one could do worse than taking the other side of consensus on this forum, when people here are saying "I could see this running until the next Fed meeting.", we're probably done, no?
Just think of how bearish everyone here was on GBP right at the bottom on Sep 22 or thinking the world was ending because of Credit Suisse etc etc.
- Joined
- 3 November 2013
- Posts
- 1,568
- Reactions
- 2,771
Fair point
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,244
- Reactions
- 7,355
They did this with several others though, when a couple of data points came in off expectations (and markets went nuts in response) it was all "oh the fed will have to do X, the fed will have to do Y" etc etc and the fed went NOPE we're doing exactly what we said we would and markets then went bonkers back in the other direction as everyone started unwinding everything.
- Joined
- 3 November 2013
- Posts
- 1,568
- Reactions
- 2,771
Yeah, I agree the Fed has stuck to their guns. Just trying to test for deficiencies in my understanding.
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,244
- Reactions
- 7,355
Yeah, markets might be pricing a different fed action but they've been wrong literally EVERY other time so I don't see why they're going to be right this time.
I mean famous last words but I don't foresee why the fed would not stick to its word this time when it has every other time.
The markets strike me as moronic at this point but I can see why you're second guessing yourself as it all appears so dumb that you're thinking they might know something you don't.
I'm betting on a 50.
- Joined
- 3 July 2009
- Posts
- 27,336
- Reactions
- 24,067
Still way too much money sloshing around in consumer land and the welfare/basic wage/covid stimulus still working its way through IMO.
- Joined
- 28 August 2010
- Posts
- 1,154
- Reactions
- 1,720
It won't end, I am thinking sooner or later they will offer either a renter stimulus or landlord stimulus package to offset the raising rents/repayments or perhaps both and a first home buyer grant
- Joined
- 3 July 2009
- Posts
- 27,336
- Reactions
- 24,067
Maybe, but IMO eventually they have to admit that the more you subsidies the poor, they end up giving it to rich in some form or other, be it in increased rent, increased prices to cover the cost of increased wages, which then feeds into the cost of everything from Govt projects, to building, to everything people do to earn a living etc, which is inflation.
They can't keep subsidising housing IMO, the Govt have to bite the bullet and get back into building social housing, in house. They need to re start State housing public works departments and employ people to build them. As with the failure of globalisation, the failure of outsourcing public housing to the private sector is proving a disaster IMO.
Some time or another, there has to be a stop, Hawke and Keating did it with the wages accord, Howard Costello did it by introducing the GST and privatising a lot of Govt services which allowed them to reduce taxation. Eventually the input costs have to be stabilised, so that the output cost can be stabilised.
Unfortunately those at the bottom of the food chain feel it most, money gives people options, those at the bottom of the food chain have a limited supply of money, therefore the options are also limited. That is what drives people to go to work, very few go to work because they just love it.
Of course you have unfortunate people who due to circumstances can't work, that's why there are different forms of welfare.
Just so that I don't have to answer that one next post.
If something isn't done, the costs go up then the wages and prices go up, then the rents go up, then the welfare goes up, that keeps repeating.
What you end up with then, is inflation in the stratosphere, well that's my take on it from my life's experience.
How Albo puts a lid on it will be interesting IMO, he has a lot of fires, on a lot of fronts and most are inflationary.
But there are smarter people that will be able to explain the intricasies of it and there will be others that tell me I'm wrong, that's the fun of discussion..
Last edited:
- Joined
- 28 August 2010
- Posts
- 1,154
- Reactions
- 1,720
totally agree, the first step would be to change those in charge bias of not being vested in re so deep but how can that be done or we are chasing our own tail with yet another stimulus and raiseMaybe, but IMO eventually they have to admit that the more you subsidies the poor, they end up giving it to rich in some form or other, be it in increased rent, increased prices to cover the cost of increased wages, which then feeds into the cost of everything from Govt projects, to building, to everything people do to earn a living etc, which is inflation.
They can't keep subsidising housing IMO, the Govt have to bite the bullet and get back into building social housing, in house. They need to re start State housing public works departments and employ people to build them. As with the failure of globalisation, the failure of outsourcing public housing to the private sector is proving a disaster IMO.
Some time or another, there has to be a stop, Hawke and Keating did it with the wages accord, Howard Costello did it by introducing the GST and privatising a lot of Govt services which allowed them to reduce taxation. Eventually the input costs have to be stabilised, so that the output cost can be stabilised.
Unfortunately those at the bottom of the food chain feel it most, money gives people options, those at the bottom of the food chain have a limited supply of money, therefore the options are also limited. That is what drives people to go to work, very few go to work because they just love it.
Of course you have unfortunate people who due to circumstances can't work, that's why there are different forms of welfare.
Just so that I don't have to answer that one next post.
If something isn't done, the costs go up then the wages and prices go up, then the rents go up, then the welfare goes up, that keeps repeating.
What you end up with then, is inflation in the stratosphere, well that's my take on it from my life's experience.
How Albo puts a lid on it will be interesting IMO, he has a lot of fires, on a lot of fronts and most are inflationary.
But there are smarter people that will be able to explain the intricasies of it and there will be others that tell me I'm wrong, that's the fun of discussion..
- Joined
- 3 November 2013
- Posts
- 1,568
- Reactions
- 2,771
Will High Inflation Persist?
The answer to when inflation will revert to its long-run average likely depends on whether we are still in the “Great Moderation” regime of less volatile inflation.
Nice little article from the Fed about what will happen to inflation in the long run. Interesting that they considered the possibility that we E no longer in the era of great moderation
Similar threads
