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assuming , of course , we aren't currently chest-deep in a recession ( wearing another name tag )
assuming , of course , we aren't currently chest-deep in a recession ( wearing another name tag )
i disagree , China is in the middle of a restructure ( that it has needed to have for at least 5 years ) ugly and bumpy , sure , but China is BIGThere's much more to it than this. You need to look at demographics and then how the U.S (by almost any metric) compares to the rest of the world.
China, for example, is in the middle of civilisational collapse.
Take a look at china's demographics first and then military capabilities and geography second. Then its total inability to be self-reliant in basically anything.i disagree , China is in the middle of a restructure ( that it has needed to have for at least 5 years ) ugly and bumpy , sure , but China is BIG
and remember all the CDBC and social engineering stuff , is all been tested on the Chinese FIRST
if it fails so does the WEF agenda ( the resisters will find all the flaws to exploit fully )
maybe , the first be hint would be the annexation of MongoliaTake a look at china's demographics first and then military capabilities and geography second. Then its total inability to be self-reliant in basically anything.
Not sure if Yellen has any plans, there is certainly pressure from others for her to do so.Just to add, there are already talks of redefining target inflation to 3%. Shifting he goalposts makes the job easier....
Janet Yellen is aware of the treasury liquidity issue. They had plans to buy short term bonds. Not sure what's happened to that.
US government bond investors are urging the Treasury department to intervene in the market, hoping for signals this week of possible buybacks after months of wild prices swings and poor liquidity. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive increases in interest rates and quantitative tightening programme this year have amplified the drama in the normally staid $24tn Treasury market. Investors want the Treasury to provide clues of its plans when it makes its fourth-quarter funding announcement in the coming days.
Treasury yields, which determine the US government’s borrowing costs and are used as benchmarks for prices across asset classes, have gyrated wildly in 2022. The volatility has made it harder and more expensive for investors to buy or sell Treasury bonds in a market that is ostensibly the most liquid in the world. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has said she is watching the situation closely. The Treasury department also asked primary dealers — banks that buy bonds directly from the Treasury — in a mid-October survey whether it should buy back older Treasury bonds, which are traded less frequently. The prospect of buybacks was first raised by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in an August report that highlighted the declining depth of the Treasury market, one measure of liquidity.
I think there was a study done on amount of lights in China and how this correlates to actual growth. Apparently it was magnitudes less than what everyone thought.Take a look at china's demographics first and then military capabilities and geography second. Then its total inability to be self-reliant in basically anything.
Called it:If/when china just give up on covid zero like the rest of us did we'll see energy demand soar again, as will the supply of a lot of the world's stuff, which will bring inflation of everything except energy back down.
Pure guesswork but something tells me they're going to just throw in the towel at some point as the expense of lockdowns just becomes utterly unbearable/the rest of their economy goes to hell so much that they have no choice.
India's geography is so so so so SO much better than china's too.I think there was a study done on amount of lights in China and how this correlates to actual growth. Apparently it was magnitudes less than what everyone thought.
India (if it can get its sht together) has the age demographics in its favour. Either way, the next decade will be all about the east.
i am thinking India is the rising power ( but don't neglect other smaller Asian nations . like Vietnam ) India has plenty of bottle-necks to fix and the demographics , and therefore the potential growthI think there was a study done on amount of lights in China and how this correlates to actual growth. Apparently it was magnitudes less than what everyone thought.
India (if it can get its sht together) has the age demographics in its favour. Either way, the next decade will be all about the east.
JPowell coming down with the hike hammer.75bps from the Fed as expected
Translation = emergency services on the ground have been advised to expect a serious crash landing but the Captain has decided it's best not to tell the passengers.JPowell: likelihood of soft landing has narrowed.
Translation = emergency services on the ground have been advised to expect a serious crash landing but the Captain has decided it's best not to tell the passengers.
I suppose nothing's actually impossible but a soft landing looks incredibly unlikely to me at this stage.
Having read their statement it was something like ‘2 year recession based on Government policies enacted by Liz Truss’BOE hikes by 75, says 2 year recession if rates follow current market implied trajectory, U.K already in recession, recession to peak at 11% at the end of this year.
GOOD TIMES.
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