Inflation

[IFocus]

An old market saying when markets are chopping their way down is there is usually more than one cockroach.

Its interesting watching to see if each grain of sand that falls is the one to bring down the pile

Or not at all

 

[divs4ever]

An old market saying when markets are chopping their way down is there is usually more than one cockroach.

Its interesting watching to see if each grain of sand that falls is the one to bring down the pile

Or not at all

will it collapse in a relatively normal manner or just fall into a deep hole ( because i think the pile is rotten to the core )

 

[JohnDe]

An old market saying when markets are chopping their way down is there is usually more than one cockroach.

Its interesting watching to see if each grain of sand that falls is the one to bring down the pile

Or not at all

I thought the cockroach theory refers to companies

 

[divs4ever]

I thought the cockroach theory refers to companies

that is where it is mostly used , but i can assure you it applies to corrupt government officials , and in several other areas , where a long festering problem is discovered ( an efficient system detects and rectifies the problem quickly )

 

[over9k]

Euro numbers are in:



10% inflation (by the official numbers) vs <1% gdp growth is effectively a 9% contraction.

Real world inflation numbers and real world GDP numbers, more like a 15% contraction.

 

[waterbottle]

Euro numbers are in:

View attachment 148679View attachment 148678

10% inflation (by the official numbers) vs <1% gdp growth is effectively a 9% contraction.

Real world inflation numbers and real world GDP numbers, more like a 15% contraction.

Euro GDP double expectations. Bullish.

 

[over9k]

Swaps now pricing interest rates (U.S) peaking at march next year. Now pricing in 5% peak rate. All the talking heads saying 75 rise at the next fed meeting now a certainty. After all the carryon last week, futures are now red with NDX/growth leading the charge. Oil's down ~1.5%. Looking for a couple of rebuys this week.

 

[over9k]

Euro GDP double expectations. Bullish.

I know. I had a bit of a snicker at that too.

 

[qldfrog]

Euro GDP double expectations. Bullish.

I believe you made a mistake:
Just released

So cpi higher than expectation, gdp lower than expectation very bearish figures .
But who cares with facts when we can create narrative..
not targetting you BTW @waterbottle

 

[over9k]

BOIL up more than 20% premarket

Kind of considering a topup now. I don't like buying on green days. Hmm.

 

[over9k]

Excellent piece by Patrick Boyle

 

[frugal.rock]

Excellent piece by Patrick Boyle

He's good eh, but with eyes like that, he could be your new goldfish... ?

 

[over9k]

He's good eh, but with eyes like that, he could be your new goldfish... ?

Yeah it's a good thing he got brains because looks and humour are not an option.

Unrelated: Got a small NRGU rebuy in at 591. Now let's see if we get another leg down. Looks like a low volume/"hold your breath" kind of day.

 

[moXJO]

Anyone have a bullish take?

To me it looks like one more good run-inflation-deflation-recession-depression for US. I'm not sure they can pull anymore rabbits out of the hat.
That drought through the Midwest that's supposed to be "dustbowl II" (funnily enough the last one was during the depression) will eat into food supplies.

$USD being the reserve currency looks to be on its last legs as well.

Energy and commodities seem to be the stand outs.

 

[over9k]

USD's at nearly record highs, not sure where you've got the idea that that's toast moxy?

 

[moXJO]

USD's at nearly record highs, not sure where you've got the idea that that's toast moxy?

There's a coalition of commodity heavy countries that want to move away from the usd$. To something that doesn't depreciate as hard.
Saudis chattering about something gold backed. Might be all pie in the sky stuff, but I'm definitely seeing moves.

What's the safest (ie. lazy man's option) of shorting the usd out to 2024 if I were interested. Which I'm not really because I'm in a pretty lazy mood.

 

[divs4ever]

I believe you made a mistake:
Just released
View attachment 148684
So cpi higher than expectation, gdp lower than expectation very bearish figures .
But who cares with facts when we can create narrative..
not targetting you BTW @waterbottle

but is BAD news still GOOD news ( a greater chance of rate hikes slowing ) ??

ah yes , the narrative , how long will the masses believe

 

[divs4ever]

There's a coalition of commodity heavy countries that want to move away from the usd$. To something that doesn't depreciate as hard.
Saudis chattering about something gold backed. Might be all pie in the sky stuff, but I'm definitely seeing moves.

What's the safest (ie. lazy man's option) of shorting the usd out to 2024 if I were interested. Which I'm not really because I'm in a pretty lazy mood.

buy ( physical ) commodities , now ??

now i hear about plenty of folks stacking precious metals , but what else can you stack ( so you can use in the future , or barter later ) ( save you buying stuff in 2024 )

 

[over9k]

There's a coalition of commodity heavy countries that want to move away from the usd$. To something that doesn't depreciate as hard.
Saudis chattering about something gold backed. Might be all pie in the sky stuff, but I'm definitely seeing moves.

What's the safest (ie. lazy man's option) of shorting the usd out to 2024 if I were interested. Which I'm not really because I'm in a pretty lazy mood.

Depends why it's dropping

 

[waterbottle]

The EU economy was always going to be crap because of what's happening in Ukraine and because the ECB was the slowest to hike rates, so I'm not surprised.
As for everyone else, i think it's all down to the Fed speech this week.