Inflation

[over9k]

Having read their statement it was something like ‘2 year recession based on Government policies enacted by Liz Truss’
The BOE GDP modelling is based on the ‘current Government Fiscal policies’. Modelling was done 2 weeks ago. Unusually they have also made an updated model based on ‘expected’ Givernment policies. So the 2 year recession model was already in the BOE’s statement release but has changed. As has the markets IR expectations compared to 2 weeks ago. It was 6.5% but now is 4.75%.
Still a recession but unlikely to be 2 years and ‘as bad as the 1930’s.
Clickbate in the morning papers I fear.
Gunnerguy

I think we're still likely to see what they say but for entirely different reasons to why they've said it, but that's just my two cents.

 

[mullokintyre]

I think we're still likely to see what they say but for entirely different reasons to why they've said it, but that's just my two cents.

Given the level of inflation I can see two problems here.
Firstly, your moniker of over9k may no longer be enough. Have you thought of indexing it to the CPI?
Secondly, your two cents worth may also need to be upped because of inflation.
I mean a two cent piece now is not even legal tender!
Just trying to help.
Mick

 

[over9k]

More rumblings about china reopening now. Everything screaming, especially oil.

 

[over9k]

U.S jobs numbers are in, payrolls increased but unemployment rate increased also, so, more people are now looking for work.

How much this has to do with *having* to do so to cover the bills I don't know but it means more demand either way

 

[waterbottle]

U.S jobs numbers are in, payrolls increased but unemployment rate increased also, so, more people are now looking for work.

How much this has to do with *having* to do so to cover the bills I don't know but it means more demand either way

I thought payrolls increased more than expected but overall trend remains down

 

[over9k]

I thought payrolls increased more than expected but overall trend remains down

Month-on-month increase but I'm just watching the headlines running now as it's a busy evening.

Edit: 260k vs 190 estimated. So above estimates.

 

[over9k]

And it looks like trump's going to run again!

 

[divs4ever]

And it looks like trump's going to run again!

even if he wasn't ( but laying down the carpet for Don jr. ) he would give that impression to keep the ' old guard ' confused , distracted and busy plotting

if Hunter's activities couldn't stop Joe being elected , it is going to be hard to sell the 'sins of the father ' on Don Jr

maybe De Santis and Don Jr as V.P. for two terms and Jr. try for the top job for the next two terms ( and completely wreck the two-party paradigm )

 

[over9k]

I don't think I've ever had lowest buy of the day before

Been a beautiful week of degens though:



I suppose I should go & buy sapphire something nice now?

 

[mullokintyre]

even if he wasn't ( but laying down the carpet for Don jr. ) he would give that impression to keep the ' old guard ' confused , distracted and busy plotting

if Hunter's activities couldn't stop Joe being elected , it is going to be hard to sell the 'sins of the father ' on Don Jr

maybe De Santis and Don Jr as V.P. for two terms and Jr. try for the top job for the next two terms ( and completely wreck the two-party paradigm )

I think you have hit the nail on the head.
As US presidents are limited to two terms, Trump would only get one more should he win, firstly the race to be the GOP candidate, and then the presidency itself.
Desantis for sure, an maybe having Don jnr as a sop to the trump supporters to attempt to bring em on side.
I would think that Desantis and Abbott from Texas would also be a good choice, as it would line up two out of three of the biggest states (and hence large numbers of electoral college votes.
But then I don't live in the US, and i don't get to vote.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

there was at one time , a dread by the Democrats that Barron ( the fairly young son of Trump) would rise to be President after Trump ( assuming Trump had won in 2020 ) which sort of puzzled me .. i thought an elected President had to be over 35 ( years old ) , and unlike Don Jr , Barron has a very low public profile in the press i read

 

[over9k]

there was at one time , a dread by the Democrats that Barron ( the fairly young son of Trump) would rise to be President after Trump ( assuming Trump had won in 2020 ) which sort of puzzled me .. i thought an elected President had to be over 35 ( years old ) , and unlike Don Jr , Barron has a very low public profile in the press i read

Trump junior was the concern. It's still very possible.

 

[divs4ever]

for some reason some fixated on the younger one , now i can see why they may dislike Jr. he seems smart enough to learn from dad ( the good bits and how to avoid some mistakes dad made )

time will tell whether he tries for a political career , or grows into a new king-maker ( anoints new players using the Trump legacy as leverage ) , he will certainly have learned much from his father's first term

personally i would like to see Rand Paul strike out on his own ( see if he can be half the statesman his father was/is ) but where is his support-base , is there any thinking middle-ground left

the Republicans stranded his father , i would expect they would do the same to Rand ( you can't have politicians who fail to pander to the big donors )

 

[over9k]

And china changes its mind:

 

[waterbottle]

And china changes its mind:

View attachment 148942

China, the true heroes we don't deserve, combating inflation by locking down their population.

 

[waterbottle]

Economy continuing to combat inflation. Wells Fargo reporting residential mortgages down 90%. Meta joining Twitter in cutting jobs. Apple planning to slow production of latest iPhone.

 

[Knobby22]

Economy continuing to combat inflation. Wells Fargo reporting residential mortgages down 90%.

And in Australia, many of the houses on The Block get passed in.

What The Block auctions tell us about Australia's housing market

After months of production, five houses on The Block went under the hammer... or tried to. Here's how their wildly different auction results represent Australia's current housing market.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

And in Australia, many of the houses on The Block get passed in.

I've always seen that program, the very existence of it, as symptomatic of Australia's misallocation of resources and the housing bubble.

The basic concept of "building" type programs on TV is as old as TV itself but historically they were aimed firmly at those keen to DIY and were showing how to do it, that is they were education of a sort, whereas The Block is firmly in the category of entertainment.

That one of the most successful and now long running programs on Australian TV is about renovating houses speaks volumes in my view.

 

[divs4ever]

I've always seen that program, the very existence of it, as symptomatic of Australia's misallocation of resources and the housing bubble.

The basic concept of "building" type programs on TV is as old as TV itself but historically they were aimed firmly at those keen to DIY and were showing how to do it, that is they were education of a sort, whereas The Block is firmly in the category of entertainment.

That one of the most successful and now long running programs on Australian TV is about renovating houses speaks volumes in my view.

volumes on what ??

the IQ of the average Aussie ( TV ) viewer, perhaps , volumes about the advertisers that want to be linked to such shows , maybe volumes about the desperation of the housing industry to flip homes .

 

[waterbottle]

ETH and BTC down double digits... What's going on....