Inflation

[divs4ever]

View attachment 148707

Oh no, if we keep jacking rates we'll cause a recession...

assuming , of course , we aren't currently chest-deep in a recession ( wearing another name tag )

 

[divs4ever]

There's much more to it than this. You need to look at demographics and then how the U.S (by almost any metric) compares to the rest of the world.

China, for example, is in the middle of civilisational collapse.

i disagree , China is in the middle of a restructure ( that it has needed to have for at least 5 years ) ugly and bumpy , sure , but China is BIG

and remember all the CDBC and social engineering stuff , is all been tested on the Chinese FIRST

if it fails so does the WEF agenda ( the resisters will find all the flaws to exploit fully )

 

[over9k]

i disagree , China is in the middle of a restructure ( that it has needed to have for at least 5 years ) ugly and bumpy , sure , but China is BIG

and remember all the CDBC and social engineering stuff , is all been tested on the Chinese FIRST

if it fails so does the WEF agenda ( the resisters will find all the flaws to exploit fully )

Take a look at china's demographics first and then military capabilities and geography second. Then its total inability to be self-reliant in basically anything.

 

[divs4ever]

Take a look at china's demographics first and then military capabilities and geography second. Then its total inability to be self-reliant in basically anything.

maybe , the first be hint would be the annexation of Mongolia

ALSO China has a solid chance of a stable trading relationship with Afghanistan

resources are nearby ( no navy needed )

 

[mullokintyre]

Just to add, there are already talks of redefining target inflation to 3%. Shifting he goalposts makes the job easier....



Janet Yellen is aware of the treasury liquidity issue. They had plans to buy short term bonds. Not sure what's happened to that.

Not sure if Yellen has any plans, there is certainly pressure from others for her to do so.
From Financial Times

US government bond investors are urging the Treasury department to intervene in the market, hoping for signals this week of possible buybacks after months of wild prices swings and poor liquidity. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive increases in interest rates and quantitative tightening programme this year have amplified the drama in the normally staid $24tn Treasury market. Investors want the Treasury to provide clues of its plans when it makes its fourth-quarter funding announcement in the coming days.

Treasury yields, which determine the US government’s borrowing costs and are used as benchmarks for prices across asset classes, have gyrated wildly in 2022. The volatility has made it harder and more expensive for investors to buy or sell Treasury bonds in a market that is ostensibly the most liquid in the world. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has said she is watching the situation closely. The Treasury department also asked primary dealers — banks that buy bonds directly from the Treasury — in a mid-October survey whether it should buy back older Treasury bonds, which are traded less frequently. The prospect of buybacks was first raised by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in an August report that highlighted the declining depth of the Treasury market, one measure of liquidity.

 

[moXJO]

Take a look at china's demographics first and then military capabilities and geography second. Then its total inability to be self-reliant in basically anything.

I think there was a study done on amount of lights in China and how this correlates to actual growth. Apparently it was magnitudes less than what everyone thought.

India (if it can get its sht together) has the age demographics in its favour. Either way, the next decade will be all about the east.

 

[over9k]

If/when china just give up on covid zero like the rest of us did we'll see energy demand soar again, as will the supply of a lot of the world's stuff, which will bring inflation of everything except energy back down.

Pure guesswork but something tells me they're going to just throw in the towel at some point as the expense of lockdowns just becomes utterly unbearable/the rest of their economy goes to hell so much that they have no choice.

Called it:

 

[over9k]

I think there was a study done on amount of lights in China and how this correlates to actual growth. Apparently it was magnitudes less than what everyone thought.

India (if it can get its sht together) has the age demographics in its favour. Either way, the next decade will be all about the east.

India's geography is so so so so SO much better than china's too.

India will be to the next 30 years what china has been to the last 30.

 

[divs4ever]

I think there was a study done on amount of lights in China and how this correlates to actual growth. Apparently it was magnitudes less than what everyone thought.

India (if it can get its sht together) has the age demographics in its favour. Either way, the next decade will be all about the east.

i am thinking India is the rising power ( but don't neglect other smaller Asian nations . like Vietnam ) India has plenty of bottle-necks to fix and the demographics , and therefore the potential growth

China is mature now and while it has flaws ( as do all mature nations ) it does not have the percentage growth potential , you will need to keep place with current inflation ( in the near term )

watch to see if Korea keeps moving towards unification , i am guessing it will be extremely financially painful in the short/mid term ( think Germany after the collapse of the Soviet era )

 

[JohnDe]

 

[waterbottle]

75bps from the Fed as expected

 

[waterbottle]

75bps from the Fed as expected

JPowell coming down with the hike hammer.
States its too early to even think about pausing.
Wants real rates positive.
Highlights resilient jobs market as a concern (despite mandate for full employment)

 

[waterbottle]

JPowell: likelihood of soft landing has narrowed. Inflation hasn't come down as much as we've liked.....

 

[Smurf1976]

JPowell: likelihood of soft landing has narrowed.

Translation = emergency services on the ground have been advised to expect a serious crash landing but the Captain has decided it's best not to tell the passengers.

I suppose nothing's actually impossible but a soft landing looks incredibly unlikely to me at this stage.

 

[waterbottle]

Translation = emergency services on the ground have been advised to expect a serious crash landing but the Captain has decided it's best not to tell the passengers.

I suppose nothing's actually impossible but a soft landing looks incredibly unlikely to me at this stage.

Agreed. He also made comments about the September dot plot being revised higher if it were to be released today. Sounds like they may be targeting rates higher than 5%.... Maybe 6%?
My interpretation is that housing and jobs seem to be holding them to higher rates.

 

[qldfrog]

Funny as just after the announcement,the us market market went up..not for long and not long enought for me to buy cheap shorts.....

 

[over9k]

Angling for a buy tomorrow

 

[waterbottle]

Only a 3% drop in the ndx, meh

 

[over9k]

BOE hikes by 75, says 2 year recession if rates follow current market implied trajectory, U.K already in recession, recession to peak at 11% at the end of this year.

GOOD TIMES.

 

[Gunnerguy]

BOE hikes by 75, says 2 year recession if rates follow current market implied trajectory, U.K already in recession, recession to peak at 11% at the end of this year.

GOOD TIMES.

Having read their statement it was something like ‘2 year recession based on Government policies enacted by Liz Truss’
The BOE GDP modelling is based on the ‘current Government Fiscal policies’. Modelling was done 2 weeks ago. Unusually they have also made an updated model based on ‘expected’ Givernment policies. So the 2 year recession model was already in the BOE’s statement release but has changed. As has the markets IR expectations compared to 2 weeks ago. It was 6.5% but now is 4.75%.
Still a recession but unlikely to be 2 years and ‘as bad as the 1930’s.
Clickbate in the morning papers I fear.
Gunnerguy