over9k
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Looks like the beginning of the taper is still going to be december.
Looks like the beginning of the taper is still going to be december.
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i guess it depends on if you believe the Fed speakers .. this time
are they completely politically deaf , or are they trying to walk the fine edge between financial collapse and political expediency
2020 proved the US is most likely to 'cherry-pick ' who gets a bail-out , and who gets thrown to the wolves
if the Saudis/OPEC+ cling to their national sovereignty aspirations the Fed ( and other CBs ) are going to have to pull more magical creatures out of the tool-kit
watch out for a gobbledygook avalanche
are they completely politically deaf , or are they trying to walk the fine edge between financial collapse and political expediency
2020 proved the US is most likely to 'cherry-pick ' who gets a bail-out , and who gets thrown to the wolves
if the Saudis/OPEC+ cling to their national sovereignty aspirations the Fed ( and other CBs ) are going to have to pull more magical creatures out of the tool-kit
watch out for a gobbledygook avalanche
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At the moment, it seems like every time the market starts to get excited about the possibility of the tightening cycle slowing, something new comes in to knock it back down.
Traders have been speculating, or hoping rather, that a pivot is on the horizon for months now, yet commentary from Fed members remains hawkish, and has so far been supported by US economic data. Focus is now on this week's CPI, which will likely be another big opportunity to swing sentiment one way or another.
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The pivot will come if we wait long enough... The surprise will be if CPI continues to March higher (I'm not of aware of anything to support that though) and the Fed is forced to hike well past 4.6%.
How many times has the Fed altered there hiking plan in previous cycles?
How many times has the Fed altered there hiking plan in previous cycles?
The question is how far markets pump?
The bubble distorted prices to such a degree that it's hard to see how we hit highs from here. Or even where everything's going to land in the new "normal".
Well unless we get another wave of stimulus, in which case its carry on.
Not to say I'm not a buyer right now. Just looking at the reality.
The bubble distorted prices to such a degree that it's hard to see how we hit highs from here. Or even where everything's going to land in the new "normal".
Well unless we get another wave of stimulus, in which case its carry on.
Not to say I'm not a buyer right now. Just looking at the reality.
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Your guess is as good as mine.
I thought the bottom (for NDX) would be 10000, that looks like it may breach this quarter.
Meanwhile we have BoE doubling it's gilt purchases, but failing to make an impact. Market doesn't like this. I'm sure governments will soon start leaning on CBers once they realise they're not going to be able to take on debt cheaply to facilitate their pork barrelling.
over9k
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To be fair, there was that one batch of inflation data that came in below estimates that markets went nuts for. It didn't last, but that's kind of the point - there really hasn't been a trend to even follow. It's just been a sh!tshow for months.
This, however:
Continues.
Last edited:
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Maybe until the Fed is done hiking?
over9k
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Doubt
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Phil Lowe plz hike
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USD the strongest major overnight, while AUD was the weakest, sliding against all of its FX peers thanks to the situation/outlook in China adding to pressure on sentiment.
AUD/USD has broken out of a bearish flag pattern and closed at 2.5-year lows yesterday. All trading carries risk, but given the current fundamental and technical backdrop, where can the pair look to hold support and attempt to bottom?
over9k
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AUD will bounce when china lockdowns lift. That could be quite some time.
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You could be right. In the meantime, this pair may have to rely on pullbacks in USD for bearish pressure to ease.
US 10-year yields currently retesting its record high just above 4%. It should be interesting to see whether we get a rejection from this level or some sort of break higher.
over9k
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Fair bit of seasonality to contend with too. Hence the energy play for heating etc
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BoE Alarm Bells, Brainard's Caution, PC Woes - What's Moving Markets
seems the inflation isn't so much of a risk , but the leverage taken out despite inflation appearing on the horizon is turning into a real monster ( shame Keynesians don't learn quickly )
BoE Alarm Bells, Brainard's Caution, PC Woes - What's Moving Markets By Investing.com
BoE Alarm Bells, Brainard's Caution, PC Woes - What's Moving Markets
www.investing.com
seems the inflation isn't so much of a risk , but the leverage taken out despite inflation appearing on the horizon is turning into a real monster ( shame Keynesians don't learn quickly )
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BoE governed tells funds they have 3 days left to sort themselves out....
over9k
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Yeeeeep. Only the first domino
Inflation was always just one factor. I think central banks have decided to pop the bubble before it really gets out of control.BoE Alarm Bells, Brainard's Caution, PC Woes - What's Moving Markets
BoE Alarm Bells, Brainard's Caution, PC Woes - What's Moving Markets By Investing.com
BoE Alarm Bells, Brainard's Caution, PC Woes - What's Moving Marketswww.investing.com
seems the inflation isn't so much of a risk , but the leverage taken out despite inflation appearing on the horizon is turning into a real monster ( shame Keynesians don't learn quickly )
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So what's it going to look like 'post-bubble'?
over9k
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Worse.
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