Inflation

[againsthegrain]

Do you really believe the standard of living in France is high.
This was true 40y ago but no way true anymore.
Only retirees are having it good
Unemployment above 9%, real jobs impossible to get
min wages at 11 euro per hour or 17 aud, in Australia it is $21...
And french minimal wage only applies to adult, full time employees etc etc
Moreover it is the actual income of from memory a third of workers
Crime and housing crisis for the last 30y
Compare that to Australia.
Even to a French, we are a nation of spoiled brats absolutely unaware of their luck, and that was a big worry for my son who is born and bred here, so we did intensive travel to put things in perspective.
Long gone is the time of the Aussie battler, ingenuity,free spirit and independence i so liked 3 decades ago when i came.
Look around you.. Victoria elections coming, etc
i do not expect much when sxxt will hit the fan.

That was roughly my argument, comparing a West European country that still has a appeal to most of the world vs Aus. Most Aussies will not have the same reasons and motivation to get pissed off with our standard of living to give up like the French do. What is a few blips of rates up in a nation of 'spoilt brats' as said by you.


Anyway the rest of the argument can be twisted both ways France has taken a beating by all the slums and the maslim ghettos which are turning chunks of Paris into sharia zones.
Of course if you do have the money you can ignore those problems and enjoy the cultural centre of Europe and the world. Get in your Italian or German automobile or catch a plane and be a stone throw away from Italy Austria etc etc galleries, beaches, 500 year old architecture (if that appeals to you)
As for Australia we are a calm country, with the quiet and peace or your suberbia or leafy inner burbs you can relax and drink your instant coffee each morning knowing that tingling feeling is there watching the value of your house appreciate. This safety zone appeals to alot of people and they will happily work 80 hours a week to keep it.
Of course you can also catch a flight to Bali and enjoy very cheap alcohol too.

The face of Australia is changing much like of any country, nothing stands still. The 90s Aussie is slowly replaced with a new more obedient citizen

 

[divs4ever]

That was roughly my argument, comparing a West European country that still has a appeal to most of the world vs Aus. Most Aussies will not have the same reasons and motivation to get pissed off with our standard of living to give up like the French do. What is a few blips of rates up in a nation of 'spoilt brats' as said by you.


Anyway the rest of the argument can be twisted both ways France has taken a beating by all the slums and the maslim ghettos which are turning chunks of Paris into sharia zones.
Of course if you do have the money you can ignore those problems and enjoy the cultural centre of Europe and the world. Get in your Italian or German automobile or catch a plane and be a stone throw away from Italy Austria etc etc galleries, beaches, 500 year old architecture (if that appeals to you)
As for Australia we are a calm country, with the quiet and peace or your suberbia or leafy inner burbs you can relax and drink your instant coffee each morning knowing that tingling feeling is there watching the value of your house appreciate. This safety zone appeals to alot of people and they will happily work 80 hours a week to keep it.
Of course you can also catch a flight to Bali and enjoy very cheap alcohol too.

The face of Australia is changing much like of any country, nothing stands still. The 90s Aussie is slowly replaced with a new more obedient citizen

but we important plenty of migrants to help with the skill shortage

and every job in a union workplace went to crap as soon as you made a pommie the union delegate , now that MIGHT not be exclusively a British unionist trait now we have plenty of nationalities to choose from now

and don't worry the slums are coming here as well they are called housing commission one suburb about two miles away has at LEAST one gang per street ( and they ain't all kids )

 

[waterbottle]

Dutch inflation rate continuing to climb... Sorta calls into question the Peak inflation theory.....

 

[over9k]

Peter Zeihan on OPEC.

 

[waterbottle]

Samsung, AMD, and Intel reporting large profit declines. All citing a slow-down in PC sales. Samsung had the biggest decline at 30% yoy.

Live news updates from October 7: Putin ‘not joking’ about nuclear threat, US hits China’s tech exports

www.ft.com

Either a sign of the times with PC sales no longer required for WFH set ups, or IR hikes are starting to truly make a dent in consumption. (or maybe it's a combination of both).

I'll also mention that retailers (Target & Nike) have reported large inventory build ups that they're now trying to discount, and that FedEx has reported significantly fewer parcel deliveries, particularly in Europe & Asia, within the last quarter.

Seems like the hikes are working. Question is will this show up on the upcoming CPI print?

 

[divs4ever]

Peter Zeihan on OPEC.

i was only expecting a 1 million barrel ( a day ) cut but the G7 pushed forward with price caps , so am not shocked

 

[moXJO]

Samsung, AMD, and Intel reporting large profit declines. All citing a slow-down in PC sales. Samsung had the biggest decline at 30% yoy.

Live news updates from October 7: Putin ‘not joking’ about nuclear threat, US hits China’s tech exports

www.ft.com

Either a sign of the times with PC sales no longer required for WFH set ups, or IR hikes are starting to truly make a dent in consumption. (or maybe it's a combination of both).

I'll also mention that retailers (Target & Nike) have reported large inventory build ups that they're now trying to discount, and that FedEx has reported significantly fewer parcel deliveries, particularly in Europe & Asia, within the last quarter.

Seems like the hikes are working. Question is will this show up on the upcoming CPI print?

Recently bought a laptop. Just the act of opening and starting it is a pain compared to just doing it on my phone.
I do prefer PC's as I find phone apps to be sht quality programs. But phones did indeed make me an impatient mofo.

Given we come out of pandemic, deliveries were always going to drop off a cliff. Once the gouging stops, then you know mindsets have changed.

 

[frugal.rock]

@frugal.rock Bought at 301 & sold at 463 within a week. How'd you do?

I'm out at 498

 

[waterbottle]

Peter Zeihan on OPEC.

c'mon do something

An image tagged c'mon do something

imgflip.com

 

[waterbottle]

Food prices down again for 6th consecutive month.

FAO Food Price Index | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FAO Food Price Index

www.fao.org

If US housing follows and oil stays down we'll have a recipe for lower inflation

 

[divs4ever]

Food prices down again for 6th consecutive month.

FAO Food Price Index | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FAO Food Price Index

www.fao.org

If US housing follows and oil stays down we'll have a recipe for lower inflation

obviously not buying their sugar from the same store i am ( it is starting to creep up ) ( rice as well )

 

[over9k]

Jobs numbers in hot, cold water poured on the idea of fed tapering earlier than expected, everything except energy slaughtered

 

[over9k]

Random musings:



You'd think electric vehicle manufacturers would have some kind of correlation with oil/fuel prices and work as a pretty nice inflation hedge, but apparently not. TSLA getting massacred today/lately just like every other growth play.

 

[waterbottle]

Random musings:

View attachment 147811

You'd think electric vehicle manufacturers would have some kind of correlation with oil/fuel prices and work as a pretty nice inflation hedge, but apparently not. TSLA getting massacred today/lately just like every other growth play.

The lithium miners have held up surprisingly well compared to other spec/growth companies. Market might be putting them in the same category as other energy companies given the push for a green transition.

 

[waterbottle]

AMD dropped 14%, almost at pre covid levels

Looks like that's where companies who don't perform are headed....

 

[divs4ever]

Jobs numbers in hot, cold water poured on the idea of fed tapering earlier than expected, everything except energy slaughtered

were they actually 'hot' we have a LOT of US data adjusted in hindsight ( and a lot of it considered as garbage even after adjustment )

be careful with the energy as the US administration is liable to try another stunt ( or two ) before the mid-term elections ( like maybe promises to build new nuclear power plants or something similar .. long term promise hoping the numb-nuts vote Democrat in the mid-term )

 

[waterbottle]

were they actually 'hot' we have a LOT of US data adjusted in hindsight ( and a lot of it considered as garbage even after adjustment )

be careful with the energy as the US administration is liable to try another stunt ( or two ) before the mid-term elections ( like maybe promises to build new nuclear power plants or something similar .. long term promise hoping the numb-nuts vote Democrat in the mid-term )

Market always overreacts when something misses expectations. Not too sure how the Fed will react though.
The overall trend for NFP jobs growth has been down since the beginning of the year. All of the other data (oil, food prices, company profits) are also down. Mortgage applications are slowing and US real estate expected to head downwards too.

I think there's enough data there to suggest CPI will also start to drop yoy, although MoM nowcasting suggests an increase.

Having said that, today was a moderately sized move for NDX. Historically, they've occurred in isolation at the start of a trend (already seen in late august) or near the end (e.g June 2022)....

 

[moXJO]

Random musings:

View attachment 147811

You'd think electric vehicle manufacturers would have some kind of correlation with oil/fuel prices and work as a pretty nice inflation hedge, but apparently not. TSLA getting massacred today/lately just like every other growth play.

Musk and Twitter what a headache.
Some good news out of Tesla as well. But it's definitely on the woke hitlist.

I'll be dribbling in at these levels (expect it to go a little lower) to build on position.

 

[moXJO]

AMD dropped 14%, almost at pre covid levels

Looks like that's where companies who don't perform are headed....

They also make chips for cars don't they?

 

[divs4ever]

They also make chips for cars don't they?

some chips i suspect , but the pivotal player is Qualcomm , the world would be a different place if Qualcomm stops access to it's patents and licences ( and Qualcomm has an extensive portfolio of patents already registered in China , so China is likely to protect/respect those patents )