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Inflation

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Last night was all over the place, ended up but was down when i woke up mid night..not an up trend that is for sure.
Good opportunity to buy shorts if you are game enough
 
Energy plays all screaming premarket, fed decision out 2hrs before the close, looking good.
 
"What about Russian nukes?"


It's a question I hear in some form or another almost daily while I'm travelling to speak and meet with clients, or in response to my newsletters. My attitude most days is "well, what about them?"


Let's consider Russia's strategic aims in Ukraine. Ukraine, as a buffer state, only continues to perform as such if it's under Russian control. If not, well... your enemies, perceived or in reality, can flood the space with arms and combatants and use it as a launching pad to strike at the heart of the Russian state. More important, Russia needs to regain control of Ukraine so that if (read: when) it's deemed necessary, Russian forces can move into places like Poland and Romania and occupy the critical geographies used to move troops and materiel overland to invade Russia.


So called "tactical," or small-scale nuclear weapons aren't great for holding territory. Nuked territory isn't great for stationing troops. And long-range ICBMs lobbed at the US or London or Paris are even worse for holding territory, or keeping Russian Presidents and a socio-politico-economic mafia elite alive. This is especially true if we consider the state of Russia's nuclear arsenal. There are some arguments that even if Russian troops and armored transports and planes and tanks and fuel trucks and MREs and intelligence and cyber and logistical capabilities are at levels far below what the world was expecting, they're still keeping the crown jewels of Russian defense--the nuclear arsenal--is top operating condition.


I'm less than convinced. The only thing more foolhardy and full of risk than a cornered, losing Russian president trying to fire nukes willy-nilly? The same-such president pushing the red button and having the world witness a failure to launch.


 
over9k said:
To further this post, last time it was a debate between 75 and 100 they delivered with 100 and markets absolutely screamed on the day/got exactly what they wanted. Food for thought.
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I've made worse calls.

SOXL absolutely screaming
 


Look at that graph after 2pm. Dude's comments are just absolutely whipsawing things.

He isn't wrong about housing though. Much stormier seas going to occur here
 
qldfrog said:
All that does not inspire confidence in obviously the market nor the Fed strategy.
What do you think?
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Just my two cents but gut feel is we're a lot closer to the end of this rate raising cycle than the mainstream expectation.

I can't prove that with data (and I always prefer data....) but we've already had significant inflation and we've already had a rise in interest rates - that's got to be sapping consumers' spending power and the sustainable demand for physical volumes of goods and services surely?

Just my perception but I think ultimately the Fed's and other central banks with ongoing tightening will bring about a proper hard landing economically simply due to the pace at which rates have been tightened. As with anything, a rapid rate of change tends to bring about overshoot. Once that happens, once there's an undeniable recession, that's the end of pricing power for practically anything other than bona fide scarce things eg gas.

Associated with that I see unbridled blue sky optimism at the moment. News media and government are both proclaiming permanently low unemployment and so on - that will be wrong is my expectation. Very wrong.

A bit of crystal ball gazing there, not backed with hard evidence, so take it for what it is. Time will tell.
 
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