over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
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- 12 June 2020
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I'm going to go with no more rate hikes or at least much smaller ones. Once we see 50's and/or 25's we should be past the bottom.
I'm going to go with no more rate hikes or at least much smaller ones. Once we see 50's and/or 25's we should be past the bottom.Broken windscreen and glass everwhere, car on it's roof, branches and leaves everywhere, airbags deployed and all partially submerged in a swamp.
Just to reuse the car analogy.
At least some level of mainstream awareness of the decline and reporting on it at a minimum.What do you think those signs will look like?
And o thought denile Biden dropping dead would see the market jump ?At least some level of mainstream awareness of the decline and reporting on it at a minimum.
Plus some "end of the world" type thinking and actions. Central banks at least acknowledging the stock market decline would be one but preferably at least pausing rates if not outright cutting.
Investors visibly throwing in the towel with some sharp "just get me out" declines would be another.
Another is the old "It's time in the market, not timing the market....". When that statement looks to be correct then the next thing to look for is a top. When it can be shown to be incorrect we're nearer a bottom.
No measure is perfect in itself but I'm really not seeing any of them yet although, in terms of timing, I do think we could be getting fairly close.
A trigger event for a sharp plunge is another possibility. The market's ripe for one in my view, just needs a good enough excuse to come along.
Regarding that latter point and possibilities - anything involving oil, gas and Russia and its allies and/or the war with Ukraine are the most obvious but not the only ones. If Joe Biden drops dead, and given age that's at least plausible, that could well be enough if some chaos follows.
Or even the 87-89 crash. A bloodbath for property investors. If inflation stays strong, rates may need to go to 7-8%.Might also start seeing a replay with a 2008-esque housing crash given the news about mortgage rates being at all time highs
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If/when china just give up on covid zero like the rest of us did we'll see energy demand soar again, as will the supply of a lot of the world's stuff, which will bring inflation of everything except energy back down.
Pure guesswork but something tells me they're going to just throw in the towel at some point as the expense of lockdowns just becomes utterly unbearable/the rest of their economy goes to hell so much that they have no choice.
So yeah, still holding my energy plays. China lockdowns lifting monday, fed meeting the next day, there's some positive signs for this week.
All major index futures are down but brent & wti are up as of this post.Ethereum broke through 1400 USD. Risk assets looking shaky....
Don't know about this one. If the market is now (finally) pricing in a recession, we could see a new trading range being established for crude. RE: COVID in China, I think we'll have to wait until the 16th Oct for the CCCP plenary meeting. Either Xi gets another term and does whatever he wants, or he gets support from the rest of the party in case **** hits the fan.
Aye, ethereum pushing past 1300...All major index futures are down but brent & wti are up as of this post.
oil is easy to explain , a big 'blow' in Puerto Rico ( maybe heading into the Gulf of Mexico , but predicted to go up the US East Coast ) AND a super-storm in Alaska .. can't guarantee it will affect US oil production/refining , but to me that looks the way to betAll major index futures are down but brent & wti are up as of this post.
now i know these things are seasonal and only the intensity ( and damage ) varies , BUT somebody decided to dig deep into their Strategic Oil Reserves this year .. before these stormsoil is easy to explain , a big 'blow' in Puerto Rico ( maybe heading into the Gulf of Mexico , but predicted to go up the US East Coast ) AND a super-storm in Alaska .. can't guarantee it will affect US oil production/refining , but to me that looks the way to bet
Yup, decent bounce in the US after last week’s heavy sell-off. Although it is worth noting that volume on the S&P500 was down nearly 50% compared to trading on Friday.So, wasn't such a bad night hey? Futures are all in the green too
Let's see if the meeting sends things soaring again.
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