Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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Oil not so good at the moment but i am a bull myself .overall market down after initial jump up.might catch up before close but i do not expect much gain if any...and not much indication on monday for the ASX
 
waterbottle said:
Oil has now been consistently under $100/bl or the past few weeks.
Should mean a lower CPI print come September 13.
US jobs growth has also slowed.
Fed watch tool now points to a smaller chance of a 75bps hike come Sept 21.

Might see the end of this down leg soon and another bear rally?
Click to expand...
75bps will not change and is a given in my opinion
 
waterbottle said:
Oil has now been consistently under $100/bl or the past few weeks.
Should mean a lower CPI print come September 13.
US jobs growth has also slowed.
Fed watch tool now points to a smaller chance of a 75bps hike come Sept 21.

Might see the end of this down leg soon and another bear rally?
Click to expand...
Powell said at Jackson hole to expect een higher rate hikes. FED might go 1%. Especially if the next inflation print stays above 8%
Oil has been kept artificially low by US releasing their oil reserves, the moment something goes wrong in middle east its gonna spike.

OpEC meets on monday, althought they said they wont cut output but they may end up deciding to cut output to pump up prices above $100 again, as they have started being suspicious about comex futures prices, claiming price manipulation.

3rd quarter GDP figures will only come end OCtober, another 2 months to go before FED admits a recession is in the works (not a slowdown lol) and then may/may not hint at a pivot. Any bear market rally will make FED more Hawkish.

QT though, only really started in July and on track to ramp up to 95billion a month in September, that will have a bigger immediate direct impact on financial asset prices IMHO, much more than rate rises which usually have a lag period of effect of maybe 6-12months.
 
Last edited:
bluekelah said:
Powell said at Jackson hole to expect een higher rate hikes. FED might go 1%. Especially if the next inflation print stays above 8%
Oil has been kept artificially low by US releasing their oil reserves, the moment something goes wrong in middle east its gonna spike.

OpEC meets on monday, althought they said they wont cut output but they may end up deciding to cut output to pump up prices above $100 again, as they have started being suspicious about comex futures prices, claiming price manipulation.

3rd quarter GDP figures will only come end OCtober, another 2 months to go before FED admits a recession is in the works (not a slowdown lol) and then may/may not hint at a pivot. Any bear market rally will make FED more Hawkish.

QT though, only really started in July and on track to ramp up to 95billion a month in September, that will have a bigger immediate direct impact on financial asset prices IMHO, much more than rate rises which usually have a lag period of effect of maybe 6-12months.
Click to expand...
All very true and I agree with you, although these facts were known in July when we had a massive 20%+ rally.
Unlikely for the markets to head straight down. More likely for them to have rallies along the way. The question is what will kick off the rallies. From what we've seen so far, it just takes a small amount of positive news
 
bluekelah said:
Powell said at Jackson hole to expect een higher rate hikes. FED might go 1%. Especially if the next inflation print stays above 8%
Oil has been kept artificially low by US releasing their oil reserves, the moment something goes wrong in middle east its gonna spike.

OpEC meets on monday, althought they said they wont cut output but they may end up deciding to cut output to pump up prices above $100 again, as they have started being suspicious about comex futures prices, claiming price manipulation.

3rd quarter GDP figures will only come end OCtober, another 2 months to go before FED admits a recession is in the works (not a slowdown lol) and then may/may not hint at a pivot. Any bear market rally will make FED more Hawkish.

QT though, only really started in July and on track to ramp up to 95billion a month in September, that will have a bigger immediate direct impact on financial asset prices IMHO, much more than rate rises which usually have a lag period of effect of maybe 6-12months.
Click to expand...
one percent ( rise ) only months away from the mid-term elections , i am not so sure ( i am NOT saying impossible though )

i would go for 0.75% , with a tiny chance of 0.5% ( which in my opinion would be politically motivated )

let's see if they start with meaningful QT ( not just let existing holdings mature )

i totally lost trust ( i haven't had much for a decade ) when they 'redefined ' recession after so many years of fudging the figures ( it is a total mess when you fudge the figures and still have to change the definitions)

oil is likely go the same way a total disconnect to commodity market prices ( because a huge amount of oil is no longer traded in US dollars )

i would expect OPEC to trim oil production ( not much maybe 1 or 2 percent lift-off ) , many have been maxxed out for a while and i suspect maintenance and repairs are needed ( not just Russia and Norway ) , besides oil prices are liable to be healthy all the northern winter ( and costs are rising as well )
 
divs4ever said:
not this bear !! i HOPE it is a 1970's style inflation ( l navigated that one )

i suspect it could be much worse
Click to expand...
Haha just had to buy gold you would have been fine in the 1990s. gold did like a 10x or something that decade.

For Fed rate predictions, Powell did say this in his speech at JH.
"Another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting," Powell said. "Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook."
So I believe " unusually large" points to maybe 1%. BUT will be data dependent once again and 3rd Q recession may give them excuse to pivot.

At any rate, I think the FED has no credibility left, especially after their transitory inflation nonsense. And its probably no use to read to much into Powells ramblings/speeches.

Actions always speak louder and at this stage I only see rate rises/ start of QT proper/global recession, market may be forward looking but i dont think it has priced in the pain yet to come.
 
maybe they consider the remaining Democrat voters ( those who haven't fled the country ) hooked by the Government funding

www.webmd.com

Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy

WebMD explains the symptoms and causes of Munchausen syndrome by proxy, where someone exaggerates a child's symptoms or even causes the child's illness.
www.webmd.com www.webmd.com

anyone who believes Powell does so at their own financial risk
 

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