Imminent and severe market correction

[dhukka]

Yeah tanks rolling over students, oh sorry got my squares mixed up. Whatcha hearing Kauri?

 

[Kauri]

Yeah tanks rolling over students, oh sorry got my squares mixed up. Whatcha hearing Kauri?

possible explosion at a US Army recruitment office in Times Square, NY.

look at some of the crosses in safe haven FX... bit of a jump...

 

[dhukka]

Just came up on marketwatch.com

AP: Cordon around Times Square on 'small explosion'
There was a police cordon around Times Square as police investigated a small explosion at a military recruiting station, the Associated Press reported. The explosive device caused minor damage, and no one was injured, police said, according to the AP report

 

[chops_a_must]

Just came up on marketwatch.com

Don't worry, Captain Bernanke! will save the day!

It will have to be after Captain Bernanke takes on the evil Ron Paul and his economically and fiscally sensible ways though!

 

[Kauri]

Might give the Dow a bit of a shake... for a whiles anyway..

Carlyle Group has failed to meet small margin calls and has received default notices as a result. UBS is also the focus with reports that it has sold up to $24 bln of Alt-A mortgages at heavily-discounted levels, similar to the talk yesterday that it sold $20 bln of such mortgages to Pimco.


Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Judging by the latest state of the credit scene... if the credit markets move before stocks... S+P back to 1260's sooner rather than later... will those lows hold.. depends on MorStan, Lehm, GolSac, and Bears.. due to report in 2 weeks.. :axt:

also still a lotta speculation that the commodities are in a stretched state
(above is all a lotta speculation on my part)

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

WaMu getting the wammo from S+P in a rating downgrade..
Carlyle not meeting margin on mortgage bonds...
Lehman under investigation re London equity derivative trading...
UBS selling anything that isn't in a vault...
Thornburg Mortgage facing possible bankruptcy...
Q4 delinquencies at record 5.82%...
pending home sales -20% over 12 months...
Stories of Treasury backing Fannie + Fred are just that.. stories... and tall ones at that...
$US Index not looking good...

Gold heading for $1000.. ( only sold down today on margin liquidation..I thunk)...

just another day in paradise..
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[sassa]

An excellent article on credit markets in 2008 with opening reference to the troubled mortgage bond fund of the Carlyle group and their margin call problems.

http://money-sage.com/content/are-credit-markets-2008-equivalent-stock-market-1929

 

[ShareIt]

does anyone think the Fed will step in before their meeting?

 

[sassa]

does anyone think the Fed will step in before their meeting?

"Some have lately taken to calling the Treasury market a bubble, because of the frenzied buying of government bonds amid all of the rest of the credit market turmoil. After all, the two-year Treasury note was lately at 1.52%, which hasn’t been seen since the middle of 2003. But to attribute the buying here to a “bubble” psychology seems off the mark, as it isn’t as if anyone is declaring government bonds to be the new new thing, or something. “Bubble is maybe not the right word,” says William Hornbarger, chief fixed income strategist at A.G. Edwards. “There’s so much uncertainty in the world right now that people are looking for any asset that is perceived as the safest…people who are just worried about everything, who would not ordinarily buy Treasurys.” The rush to government debt was particularly prominent in the short-term markets, where the yield on the three-month bill fell as low as 1.30% during the day, putting it about 1.70 percentage points below the federal-funds rate. Lance Lewis, writing on Minyanville.com, says that this type of condition does not occur often ”” and generally only during instances when the Federal Reserve is about to surprise markets with an interest-rate cut. “Could the Fed ease tomorrow morning after the release of the jobs data? It’s a distinct possibility in my view,” he writes."
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/

 

[Kauri]

and then you get this...
The St Louis Fed president has come out via Rooters and said policy makers should not stifle market innovation, and added that current woes are rooted in bad risk management and that valid financial innovation often brings instability. He also says that current problems have a ways to run yet.
This lame apology for subprime investments sounds like something one would hear from those actively selling investments based on subprime mortgages to investors, including some of the major US money center and investment banks, not something voiced by a current regional Fed president.
Ye Gods and little fishes...
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[dhukka]

and then you get this...
The St Louis Fed president has come out via Rooters and said policy makers should not stifle market innovation, and added that current woes are rooted in bad risk management and that valid financial innovation often brings instability. He also says that current problems have a ways to run yet.
This lame apology for subprime investments sounds like something one would hear from those actively selling investments based on subprime mortgages to investors, including some of the major US money center and investment banks, not something voiced by a current regional Fed president.
Ye Gods and little fishes...
Cheers
...........Kauri

Good point, just substitute the word alchemy for innovation. As said before calling **** sugar doesn't make it taste any better.

IMO it shows how much trouble the US is in when leading officals come out with crap like this. When it;s all said and done, the costs of this so-called financial innovation will far outweigh benefits.

 

[Kauri]

"Some have lately taken to calling the Treasury market a bubble, because of the frenzied buying of government bonds amid all of the rest of the credit market turmoil. After all, the two-year Treasury note was lately at 1.52%, which hasn’t been seen since the middle of 2003. But to attribute the buying here to a “bubble” psychology seems off the mark, as it isn’t as if anyone is declaring government bonds to be the new new thing, or something. “Bubble is maybe not the right word,” says William Hornbarger, chief fixed income strategist at A.G. Edwards. “There’s so much uncertainty in the world right now that people are looking for any asset that is perceived as the safest…people who are just worried about everything, who would not ordinarily buy Treasurys.” The rush to government debt was particularly prominent in the short-term markets, where the yield on the three-month bill fell as low as 1.30% during the day, putting it about 1.70 percentage points below the federal-funds rate. Lance Lewis, writing on Minyanville.com, says that this type of condition does not occur often ”” and generally only during instances when the Federal Reserve is about to surprise markets with an interest-rate cut. “Could the Fed ease tomorrow morning after the release of the jobs data? It’s a distinct possibility in my view,” he writes."
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/

Rumours started up at the end of the US session last night of an emergency meeting/cut, and are circulating around Asia now, but are based only, in my onion, on the fact that the scene looks similar to the last time they rushed in and then found out the French had suckered them... if they have an emergency cut everytime the market drops on credit worries they will soon be giving money away, like dropping lollies for a kids lollie scramble from a helicopter... come to think of it... nahh..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Whiskers]

Rumours started up at the end of the US session last night of an emergency meeting/cut, and are circulating around Asia now, but are based only, in my onion, on the fact that the scene looks similar to the last time they rushed in and then found out the French had suckered them... if they have an emergency cut everytime the market drops on credit worries they will soon be giving money away, like dropping lollies for a kids lollie scramble from a helicopter... come to think of it... nahh..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Exactly.

Some speculation of a 75bp cut.

My estimate is they will wait for the normal meeting and not go so severe prob 50 maybe 25... since Ben has pretty much told the Bush admin to pull there socks up and do more.

 

[sam76]

Just came up on marketwatch.com

a video of the explosion for those who are interested

http://www.nypost.com/video/?vxSite...el=NY Post&vxClipId=1458_249625&vxBitrate=700

 

[Kauri]

a few interesting reads... if you have time..
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[chops_a_must]

Censorship dodging hey Kauri?

 

[ithatheekret]

Just off topic , sorry .

But I must state that I think the RBA did the right thing as always , whilst the data coming in shows it has started to work , it now has the swing in inflation to contend with . They have to use the lagging data and take into account international events and will more than likely ( IMO ) raise another 25 at the next meeting . They are well within their rights too , inflation must be pushed down in other sectors than where it has started to swing away from first , this will usually lower the cost push swing , whilst only a temp solution , it will contain any further build up . The ECB should be raising rates , just like the US should be , but they won't , I'd be surprised if they went .75 bsp and think they suffice with .25 . rather than stoke the inflations at hand and send them into hyper mode , which is definitely on the cards . They will cut again , the numbers say they have to drop at least .75 before the end of the year . Then hold them there as long as they can until a bottom evolves . March the 18th , if they waited till then most indexes would have tested the lows or be very close to ( having done so would be better ) , before they act .

 

[numbercruncher]

US Jobs post biggest drop in five years.

Futures down accordingly

 

[dhukka]

US Jobs post biggest drop in five years.

Futures down accordingly

Yep, no positives here, take out government jobs and Feb payrolls would have been down more then -100k. Also 46k worth of downward revisions to previous months. Look out below.