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Imminent and severe market correction

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Of course. A perception is maintained that it is a Government instrument working for the interests of the people. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is private enterprise at its zenith taking everything they can for the profit of a few. That is why feel good crap stories come out of Wall Street every day so that the '"system"' can continue to suck out every last drop from the sheeple before they enter the knackery.

Are you long gold?
 
Getting harder to tell the 2 apart these days - which one is the bastion of capitalism?


Thursday afternoon, Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson detailed the administration's plan, made with input from mortgage lenders and banks, to freeze interest rates for as long as five years to help some subprime borrowers.
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Don't you love the free market economy - privatise the profits, socialise the losses.
 


Yes all true , but why was it constructed ?

Well there use to be a swathe of State Banks that issued their own bank notes , quite a few got carried away with the process , causing many problems across America . Friction was a forerunner to many Senate debates so they came across the musing of a Federal Reserve Bank . Which has taken over the state bank roles into a centralized institution . Which has carried on the tradition of over printing bank notes ......... unfortunately the effects of the over printing has caused inflation , just as it did in the early days , it's just been centralized now .

Which brings out a recollection of pallets of US bank notes found in Iraq , all of which should not have been in circulation yet according to the Fed records . Of course the story was nailed closed .................
 
Fact or opinion?
Quote:
Lest there are any doubts, here is the Richard Russell position on the stock market. We are in a primary bear market. The bear market was signalled when, on November 21, the D-J Industrials Average closed below its August 16 low of 12845.78, thereby confirming the prior breakdown of the Transports.
The bear signal arrived with the stock market already deeply oversold. Moreover, at the time, the bonds and the Utilities were both in rising trends. These two conditions set off a violent bounce in the market. But this most recent advance should not be confused with a "rebirth" or continuation of the bull market. No, the bear market is established -- it is fated to run its course.
Rallies in bear markets can arrive suddenly and they can be violent. In fact, bear market rallies often look better than the real thing. Bear rallies often recover in a few days what it took the bear weeks or even months to accomplish on the downside.
The primary trend of the stock market is now bearish and in its early stages. I would use any forthcoming strength to pare back on stocks that you are not willing to hold through a bear market
 

I see a nastier scenario than that though .

The money placed in banks gets a rate of return , the money loaned by banks gets a rate of return . Usually this is a prestated percentage or it is written into a contract . What I see George doing is voiding contracts and renigging on agreed rates of return .

It's gone from defaulting homeowners , to defaulting on investors .

When it gets down to that , the money votes and walks .
 
I am looking at an ultimate peak of 7100pts before this bull ends based on EWT.Currently long and went long between 15-20 November with call options.

I am expecting this rally to persist till Feb/March 2008. ATM looking at approximately 21-24 March but it might be earlier, need to look further into this. Have much more faith in the time and pattern of trend (as they are more important) than the price level.

At that time all my bets will be to the downside, as the patterns in the DJI and SP500 look like they are completing a huge Ending Diagonal patterns. These patterns offer probably the best contrarian probabilities anybody can trade. However the significance of the move is what will be important:

1/ Ending Diagonal Pattern
2/ Metonic(19 year) Cycle Completion
3/ Complacency amongst market players
4/ 3 Time Cycle highs in a row since April 2005( 5 waves in an impulse= 3 cycle highs)


We(Magdoran and myself) have been able to call every major high and low consistantly in this market(XAO, SP500) since Feb 2008 within 1-8 trading days(currently looking to try and improve this with-it's the hard part!!) .
The only area we have failed in, is determining the significance of the move i.e. has the bearmarket started?? This has not been an issue for us though because we only swing trade the market move by move!! I believe we have now taken a big step forward with this, and the Ending Diagonal coming up could stop this bull dead in it's tracks in 2008.

Recently the AUDUSD may have completed a Metonic Cycle high since early 1989. If this is the case there is a good probability the larger trend is now down for the next 4+ years based on our work. If it has not topped then it should do so within the next 2-3 months as our method is accurate up to 4-5 bars(looking at monthly bars on the AUDUSD), but the pattern is the KEY

Cheers
 
Wavepicker,
I am new to this.Is my understanding to look to get out of the stock market w/in 2-3 months. Please explain alittle more .......
 

Wavepicker, thanks so much for your views. I really enjoy reading your insights and I for one know that your last couple of calls have been pretty awesome.

I cannot remember this guys name, heard him on CNBC yesterday, telling his clients to exit @ 14300 for the DJIA. He expects next year to be a repeat of the past few months without much opportunity for long-term investors to make money b/c of volitality. He said, he has never been wrong on his calls and his mathetical formula has helped him get there - he lost the journalists at that point.

I assume he means that we will become bearish come 14300 in the new year - assuming that the February reporting period for the US will be a bad time to be in the market.

I have noticed that the DJ Utilities peaked last night. I also noticed that the DJ Transportation Average is on its way to peaking next. This means that January will be a good time for the DJIA to reach 14300.

Look forward to testing your next call
 
There's still the SIVs to come out yet , they've just started freezing withdrawls on them to try to stem the flows leaving stateside .

The SIV's rely on credit , which has just taken a long needed vacation , no credit means they have to sell to pay instalments and withdrawls .

But what happens if there are no buyer at the price they need ?

It's simple , those sophisticated investments with their too good to be true returns , become CHEAP as CHIPs .
 
brodion said:
Wavepicker,
I am new to this.Is my understanding to look to get out of the stock market w/in 2-3 months. Please explain alittle more .......
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What I am saying is that the next correction which is due to start in Feb/March(the actual turn window actually starts mid Jan and extends to 21-24th March- SP500).

This will most likely be bigger than the correction in mid June as 5 degrees of trend(cycles) are terminating in that time window. The correction in June had 4 degrees of trend coming together.

Cheers
 


Hello Nikki,

Would certainly agree with the guy from CNBC!!

I should have mentioned as I did in the last post, that the actual turn window starts 15th Jan 2008 and extends to 21-24th March, as such Feb/March is my stab at it at this stage. Will get a better idea as the time approaches and more information comes to hand.

At this stage not sure if SP500/DJIA will end up in a trunacation(retest failure) or a throweover to new highs.

I guess the volatility has had a few investors pulling their hair out, but for short term swing traders using derivatives it's been a godsend and at last some action!!

Cheers
 
Wavepicker, listening and reading may agree with timing, but to get it
This week depending on a few things a .50 % rate cut by the US Fed will/may see the markets carry through to February March next year. Anything less this market will fall like a brick in water?

But if we do see that rate cut the DOW may make a new high?
Just listening to a market tech who said possibly 15200 on DOW Feb-Mar
However S&P500 next year having a 30% drop next year?
 

The rate cut is on. The US Republican Admin is beside themselves with concern that thier market appears good going into the new year and to the Presidential elections.

A further rate cut of this size will send the US$ to lows that will force investors and governments everywhere to seek safehavens away from debt-laden currencies. Gold will be one of the prime beneficiaries, it will then break the US$850 quicky which will bring it into the general news and then to its inflation adjusted true value of US$2,000 plus.
 
Hello wavepicker,


I finally remembered my ASF password! I'm now settled in my new house in the states (it's #$%&@ freezing here - it actually snowed... looks like a white xmas for me).

Good to see your posts continued while I was off line until I remembered my password!


Kind regards


Magdoran
 
Hello Soso,

Sorry, the international move disrupted a lot of things, and I decided to return to a management role and head up a sales and marketing division for a US IT company for a while, such fun!...

I'd forgotten my ASF password, and my PC was out of action for a while. Just haven't had time to do anything much of late...

But I'm almost operational again.

I'll be in contact soon.


regards


Mag
 
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