Imminent and severe market correction

stretchie · 27 November 2009

I think you'll find people are a lot more wary of doubling down on margin like they did in October 08. If there's another big fall it might not be as far as you'd think. I'm certainly a LOT less geared up than I was last time, and can pay out my margin loan within a few weeks if absolutely necessary.

I was rather stupid last time and increased my holdings when the stock I owned (ZFX) went down 40% because I didn't think it could fall much further. Had I put a stop loss in place or let it sell when I got my 1st margin call I'd be sitting on a lot more money than I am right now.

lukeaye · 27 November 2009

Donga said:
Don't think buying today would be madness. This morning would have been good. Some folk have been waiting for a major pullback since 3800 and I just don't think it's gonna happen in the short term. Recently had 6% retreat and we'll see if this deteriorates into something worse, but doubt it. Now if China starts choking, I'm outa here!

I hate to say i told you so, but do you still think buying today was a good idea?

Have a look at commodities, gold off $60 in a day, thats unheard of.

The markets are going to tank. Futures on DOW are down 110 already.

skyQuake · 27 November 2009

lukeaye said:
I hate to say i told you so, but do you still think buying today was a good idea?

Have a look at commodities, gold off $60 in a day, thats unheard of.

The markets are going to tank. Futures on DOW are down 110 already.

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched;
Currently pricing in a 270 point fall on the DOW.

If it opens down there imo they'll squeeze it green.

ROE · 27 November 2009

This is just the beginning, more bad times ahead

Once the automatic stop loss come in and traders stop loss lower and lower at some point people going to pull the plug and people without real knowledge of what they are holding start to panic and just want out all together.

some do it because they are force to do so, other do it because they cant face the music any more...some has too much debt....but the end game is human cant take seeing their asset plummet fearing their live will forever change and out they go in large number.

it happen many time before and it shall happen again, that is the only predictable human behavior.

I be waiting at the bottom filter out stuff I want to buy and throw the rest
back to Mr Market.

You only need to this a few times every decade then you just sit back relax
and retire in comfort

The only hard thing is waiting and not getting itchy ..

ROE · 27 November 2009

stretchie said:
I think you'll find people are a lot more wary of doubling down on margin like they did in October 08. If there's another big fall it might not be as far as you'd think. I'm certainly a LOT less geared up than I was last time, and can pay out my margin loan within a few weeks if absolutely necessary.

I was rather stupid last time and increased my holdings when the stock I owned (ZFX) went down 40% because I didn't think it could fall much further. Had I put a stop loss in place or let it sell when I got my 1st margin call I'd be sitting on a lot more money than I am right now.

I have no idea how much people gear up but I do know this stuff happen all the time going back as long as 100 years

every decades we have a heart attack, whether it due to gearing or people too pessimistic or traders going on holiday or some country go into default and play with human emotions and send shock waves around the globe.

That why my uncle Warren told me always have cash ready and never borrow to play in the stock market even when interest is at historic low

It could be historic low today but historic high next year and Mr Market may have a heart attack to go along with it and that is one lethal combination

explod · 27 November 2009

ROE said:
This is just the beginning, more bad times ahead

Once the automatic stop loss come in and traders stop loss lower and lower at some point people going to pull the plug and people without real knowledge of what they are holding start to panic and just want out all together.

it happen many time before and it shall happen again, that is the only predictable human behavior.

..

Yep, the power of sentiment is the greatest driver of market behaviour and it could not have been said better ROE

Gundini · 27 November 2009

So this is really the big one?

I don't think so. Who gives a rats about Dubai.

The real problem is in America, and they will print all sorts of money to stem the tide until they manufacture the correction.

This is just an excuse to profit take IMO.

I am only 30% invested and have been waiting for an opportunity like this to top up while the printing presse are still rolling.

Bring it on!

ROE · 27 November 2009

Gundini said:
So this is really the big one?

I don't think so. Who gives a rats about Dubai.

The real problem is in America, and they will print all sorts of money to stem the tide until they manufacture the correction.

This is just an excuse to profit take IMO.

I am only 30% invested and have been waiting for an opportunity like this to top up while the printing presse are still rolling.

Bring it on!

Who knows if it is a big one or not, as a buyer I rather see the market lower than higher even though 90% of my money in currently in the market

Macquack · 27 November 2009

Gundini, I noticed you have a "ark" on standby if the sh*t really hits the fan. That is what I call being prepared for the worse.

Gundini · 27 November 2009

ROE said:
Who knows if it is a big one or not, as a buyer I rather see the market lower than higher even though 90% of my money in currently in the market

But you only have 10% left to go shopping? How many bargain can you buy?

If you had 90% invested, and the market went down by 20%, surely your 10% is not going to save your bacon, and that's IF you pick the bottom?

I'm thinking you want a rally here

GumbyLearner · 27 November 2009

Gundini said:
So this is really the big one?

I don't think so. Who gives a rats about Dubai.

The real problem is in America, and they will print all sorts of money to stem the tide until they manufacture the correction.

This is just an excuse to profit take IMO.

I am only 30% invested and have been waiting for an opportunity like this to top up while the printing presse are still rolling.

Bring it on!

Totally!

Many US & Europe financials remain mired in what I can only proffer as "denial dodgyland". The old schoolyard tactical axiom of Don't look at me, look at him. In other words, don't look at my balance sheets, profit/loss statements, mark-to-market illusions etc... look at theirs! WAJ

Like Buffet has been noted as saying
"You don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out."

About time some more major players have to give up skinny-dipping.

Bring it on!

Yes.

Gundini · 27 November 2009

Macquack said:
Gundini, I noticed you have a "ark" on standby if the sh*t really hits the fan. That is what I call being prepared for the worse.

I have better than that Mac, I have no debt and own a trailer full of baked beans. From the end of the world till the future I am to be known as:

fartusmaximuscolonicgasius....

I am seeking carbon credits as I speak...

CanOz · 27 November 2009

I think its a bit overdone really, I'm betting on buyers coming in, if they haven't already.

Cheers all,

CanOz

Wysiwyg · 28 November 2009

skyQuake said:
Don't count your chickens before they're hatched;
Currently pricing in a 270 point fall on the DOW.

If it opens down there imo they'll squeeze it green.

Yes, as expected the bounce turned green. Say skyQuake, I visualise you as someone with their finger on the pulse so to speak. Not just an ordinary player trying to eke out an existence from stock markets. This lead me to think you may have some corporate connections but at the same time I thought you don't seem to be of that ilk either.

GumbyLearner · 28 November 2009

CanOz said:
I think its a bit overdone really, I'm betting on buyers coming in, if they haven't already.

Cheers all,

CanOz

I'm betting they are ****ed at present.

skyQuake · 28 November 2009

GumbyLearner said:
I'm betting they are ****ed at present.

**** = very happy?

Wysiwyg said:
Yes, as expected the bounce turned green. Say skyQuake, I visualise you as someone with their finger on the pulse so to speak. Not just an ordinary player trying to eke out an existence from stock markets. This lead me to think you may have some corporate connections but at the same time I thought you don't seem to be of that ilk either.

Ehh a bit of both so to speak, but not in the IBs or buy/sell side rat race if thats what you mean.
Think we'll get a decent squeeze on monday right from the open

inenigma · 28 November 2009

ROE said:
I be waiting at the bottom filter out stuff I want to buy and throw the rest
back to Mr Market.

Do let us know when we have hit the bottom....

skyQuake · 30 November 2009

skyQuake said:
Think we'll get a decent squeeze on monday right from the open

Well the squeeze is well and truly underway, godsend this morning when SPI opened at 24!
I reckon we'll have a bit of a followthrough tomorrow
Guess afterwards its all eyes on Dubai..

skc · 30 November 2009

skyQuake said:
Well the squeeze is well and truly underway, godsend this morning when SPI opened at 24!
I reckon we'll have a bit of a followthrough tomorrow
Guess afterwards its all eyes on Dubai..

Great call.

ASX up 3%, Japan 2.7%, HK 3.5%, China H shares 4%+

Dow futures up 0.4%... the big guns are still on holidays.

Arbitrage!!!

Broadway · 3 December 2009

lukeaye said:
I hate to say i told you so, but do you still think buying today was a good idea?

Have a look at commodities, gold off $60 in a day, thats unheard of.

The markets are going to tank. Futures on DOW are down 110 already.

Jumped out today, spi lost momentum. Grabbed 180+ on the spi.

Ive learned skyquake is rarely wrong.

Imminent and severe market correction

stretchie

lukeaye

skyQuake

ROE

ROE

explod

explod

Gundini

ROE

Macquack

Gundini

GumbyLearner

Gundini

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

GumbyLearner

skyQuake

inenigma

Oh Sh*t.... That didn't work.

skyQuake

skc

Goldmember

Broadway

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Imminent and severe market correction

explod

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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Everyone wants money

Oh Sh*t.... That didn't work.

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