Imminent and severe market correction

[Nyden]

Ok, have your day in the sun lads, but we may still have the last laugh yet. You may yet have to buy those razor blades for yourselves and use them just prior to jumping out of a 20 story building.

And its far too early to tell if KRudd has done anything positive for the economy apart from sh*tn in his own nest.

Cheers

What is wrong with you? You speak as though there are teams, the bull team, and the bear team. Why be either? Judge your investments based on their own individual merit, nothing else.

I'm sorry, but the world isn't ending

 

[nomore4s]

Ok, have your day in the sun lads, but we may still have the last laugh yet.

Maybe it's the bears who have already had their day in the sun and are yet to realise it's over? The longer this rally lasts & the economy stabilises the more likely the bottom is in imo.

The economy in Aust is nowhere near is bad as what the bears were forecasting and the stockmarket is reacting to that realisation imo. I was also in Singapore last week and the amount of development going on over there was amazing. At this stage we have seen no more then a mild recession and unless the economy does start to go downhill in a big way I think we may have seen the bottom, but who knows how the next few years will play out.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

What is wrong with you? You speak as though there are teams, the bull team, and the bear team. Why be either? Judge your investments based on their own individual merit, nothing else.

I'm sorry, but the world isn't ending

Well not yet, but shipping is!

"But now the global financial and economic crisis has stifled the boom in container shipping, and it has happened almost overnight. For the first time in its history, the industry has stopped growing and, in fact, is shrinking. In the first six months of this year alone, the shipping industry declined by close to 16 percent"

We may be doing better thus far than allot of other countrues but I think of it more as a long line of domino's.
We will be hit and it will be ugly! It's just a matter of time.
I can afford to be patient!

Best
G
...

---article continues---

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,641513,00.html

 

[Nyden]

Well not yet, but shipping is!

"But now the global financial and economic crisis has stifled the boom in container shipping, and it has happened almost overnight. For the first time in its history, the industry has stopped growing and, in fact, is shrinking. In the first six months of this year alone, the shipping industry declined by close to 16 percent"

We may be doing better thus far than allot of other countrues but I think of it more as a long line of domino's.
We will be hit and it will be ugly! It's just a matter of time.
I can afford to be patient!

Best
G
...

---article continues---

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,641513,00.html

You cannot state it as fact, sorry. (That Australia is going to be 'hit' - I thought we already had? A 50% drop in market prices ... hmm, nah, that's not a hit! Nutcakes want the XAO at 0, don't they?)

I could go and find an article to counter that, and state that the world is recovering, and how it's just a matter of time. I can afford to wait! Gosh, don't I look like a whiz now?

Not one person I know has felt any effect of this recession here in Australia, not one single person. I haven't seen any distressed house sales, I haven't seen any shops close down, there's simply very little consumer fear out there anymore.

Just remember, the markets are forward thinking; and by the time the 'fundamentals' change, any possible recovery may have already passed by.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Not one person I know has felt any effect of this recession here in Australia, not one single person. I haven't seen any distressed house sales, I haven't seen any shops close down, there's simply very little consumer fear out there anymore.


Sweet! You must live in Canberra.

I'm in the resort/ hotel buisness and average occupancy is running at 15%!
Even major hotels in Melbourne 15%, heavy discounts.
We layed off a 3rd of out staff last X-mas.
Low interest rates are doing well to keep this ponzi going but a few % increase will see large amounts of over debted young and old couple's on struggle street.

And markets are forward looking and at this point with regard to price earnings must be set to soar! But if these better than expected results are a result of one off cost cutting and market to market accounting changes than what happens if the consumer does not return when expected becauce they are broke. Green shoots extending to 2011,2012??
The ice has been getting thiner for months.



Time will tell!

G

 

[Glen48]

USA is paying $1M a second in interest, 10% of the World's shipping is tied up out side Singapore well out side so they don't have to pay charges, China's power usage is down and any thing which is produced and has left the factory is considered sold to keep the figures up, Chinese bank's are told to lend money to any one the same Ponzi scheme USA has. China is trying to save face and show the rest of the World how clever they are and the green shoots and about to be hit by a lawn mower.

 

[Real1ty]

We will be hit and it will be ugly! It's just a matter of time.
I can afford to be patient!

Best
G
...

When does this call become redundant or is it an open ended call that could be right next month, next year or next decade?

Your patience is costing you money in the biggest rally since the 30's.

Meanwhile money is being made and if it turns around, we can sell out and go short.

This is one of the biggest differences of many on here. The Bears have no doubt in their mind at all and continue to swim against the tide while others, just play what they see while keeping an open mind to possibilities on both sides of the fence.

 

[grace]

Meanwhile money is being made and if it turns around, we can sell out and go short.

Should some major horrific news come through (likely source the US), then gaps down will not allow you to do this. There are quite a few possible catalysts capable of causing such a thing IMO. We are in very fragile times. I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm certainly keeping some cash up my sleeve just in case.

 

[gfresh]

Has China turned a corner?

The downtrend continues .. Looks like something (the talk of credit rationing?) has put some fear into the general punters over there. Not far off 3000 points (presently 3046), a break of that is likely to be significant.

That along with the BDI starting to now look weak, really should be a good advanced warning, especially for our commodity stocks which have been boosted by the thought that Chinese demand is still strong.

All we'd need is those tipping off first, and then followed by a sell of our own financial sector as the sugar coating of the US financials may wear off when the next quarter results are published... and we would be seeing a significant retracement in our index, and a sap of confidence.

Bit early to say though, all speculation above presently.

 

[knocker]

The downtrend continues .. Looks like something (the talk of credit rationing?) has put some fear into the general punters over there. Not far off 3000 points (presently 3046), a break of that is likely to be significant.

That along with the BDI starting to now look weak, really should be a good advanced warning, especially for our commodity stocks which have been boosted by the thought that Chinese demand is still strong.

All we'd need is those tipping off first, and then followed by a sell of our own financial sector as the sugar coating of the US financials may wear off when the next quarter results are published... and we would be seeing a significant retracement in our index, and a sap of confidence.

Bit early to say though, all speculation above presently.

Yep punters paradise
Enjoy the ride down suckers lol

 

[Buckeroo]

What is wrong with you? You speak as though there are teams, the bull team, and the bear team. Why be either? Judge your investments based on their own individual merit, nothing else.

I'm sorry, but the world isn't ending

Who said anything about not investing? I'm just not exposing too much of my capital to high risk. Heck, in a bull market, you have to be a doofus not to make money and it takes no effort.

So, I'm in the bear team - what can I say, its fun. And I think the world just might end

Cheers

 

[Edwood]

Shanghai closed down 5.8%

 

[gfresh]

Chinese market leads again..

 

[Aussiejeff]

Shanghai closed down 5.8%

Down around 18% since start of August.

Yet all other world markets continued popping champagne corks? China will save us all?

What happened? Where have the media prophets & market gurus been hiding in the last week? All I have seen is MegaPositive Spin. Oh, of course. They were all at the Big Bwanker's Champagne Party? Hardly any experts "foresaw" a collapse in the Shanghai market, which was happening before their very eyes???

Hmmm.

Funnily enough, Ken Henry's warning yesterday (before last night's market rout) to hold back the euphoria, since there was "the possibility of a second shockwave" coming, might yet prove prophetic??

Time to put the helmet back on???

 

[CamKawa]

The media have forgotten about China now, apparently Japan will save us.

 

[Aussiejeff]

The media have forgotten about China now, apparently Japan will save us.

*Phew*

Thank gawd for that!!

Anyway, I'm sure ObamSan will flash his toothy grin sometime soon and assure us all that Michelle, the kidz and Bozo are doin' just fine.

Yeehaaar!!

 

[Real1ty]

What happened? Where have the media prophets & market gurus been hiding in the last week?

We could say the same about you jeff.

Your posting certainly takes on a new lease of life after down days.

 

[Aussiejeff]

We could say the same about you jeff.

Your posting certainly takes on a new lease of life after down days.

Yep.

Nothing like a bit of cointrarian optimism from an old bear, eh?

 

[trainspotter]

Jump on in the water is fine !

 

[Uncle Festivus]

You cannot state it as fact, sorry. (That Australia is going to be 'hit' - I thought we already had? A 50% drop in market prices ... hmm, nah, that's not a hit! Nutcakes want the XAO at 0, don't they?)

None of the nutcakes I know want the XAO at 0. Some of the Nutcakes are merely pointing out the obvious to the same people who didn't see Correction Part I coming. As long as the gov keeps pouring the cordial into the whisky bottle people will think they are getting drunk, but will get dissapointed when they are told it's just a placebo, but still have to pay whisky prices.

I could go and find an article to counter that, and state that the world is recovering, and how it's just a matter of time. I can afford to wait! Gosh, don't I look like a whiz now?

Please do - post some data that shows that the world is recovering, and it's not just a stimulis bounce? Perhaps global trade, shipping, US house foreclosures, UK unemployment and GDP, global debt to GDP ratios etc etc and not some of these low balled 'better-than-expected' guesstimates put out by discredited economists and analysts, all trying to get some cred back after failing to pick the GFC.

Not one person I know has felt any effect of this recession here in Australia, not one single person. I haven't seen any distressed house sales, I haven't seen any shops close down, there's simply very little consumer fear out there anymore.

Just remember, the markets are forward thinking; and by the time the 'fundamentals' change, any possible recovery may have already passed by.

No, markets are forward 'hoping' at best in this climate - we are supposed to be smack bang in the middle of a 'second half recovery', yet US foreclosures have hit yet another record the last month, and if the beer and skittles mob can recall all of 2 years back, this is what started the whole thing off in the first place.

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Foreclosure filings in the U.S. climbed to a record for the third time in five months in July as falling home prices and the recession left more homeowners unable to keep up payments or refinance.


“We’re in a deep hole,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Inc., said in an interview. “There is a whole new wave of foreclosures tied to the cyclical dynamics of the economy.”

For Oz, 20,000 full time jobs vaporised last month, and was regarded as a good outcome, while part time and casual employment is rising rapidly.

Total personal insolvency activity

Total personal insolvency activity (36,479) increased by 11.00% in 2008-09.

Bankruptcies

New bankruptcies increased by 5.90% during 2008-09 (27,503) and decreased by 0.50% in the June 2009 quarter (7,014) compared to the June 2008 quarter (7,049).

Part IX debt agreements

There was a 29.45% increase in debt agreements (8,567) in 2008-09, an increase of 13.53% in the June 2009 quarter (2,316) compared to the June 2008 quarter (2,040).

Part X arrangements

There was a 47.65% increase in personal insolvency agreements in 2008-09 (409), and an increase of 3.88% in the June 2009 quarter (107) compared to the June 2008 quarter (103).

http://www.itsa.gov.au/dir228/itsaw...l Personal Insolvency Statistics?OpenDocument

THE number of households struggling to make their monthly home loan repayment could double to more than one million by June next year, as higher interest rates and rising unemployment batter working families, according to researcher Fujitsu Consulting.

Mortgage stress was at its worst in August last year when 900,000 families were under pressure to meet repayments.

But the $52 billion in government handouts and interest rate cuts totalling 425 basis points since September eased family budgets and by June this year the situation had reversed, Fujitsu says.

In July, mortgage stress again began creeping up, its first rise in 12 months with the 546,000 households in some degree of stress representing a 1.1 per cent increase on the previous month.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,25926623-25658,00.html