Imminent and severe market correction

[Kauri]

Actually I just thought something for fun lets see who can produced the movements on the US markets for 10 days in advance
After all you are now saying wave five of five
Not that I want to say where are you coming from

Trade what you see in the present, not what you want or expect to see in the future.

 

[Boyou]

When the market fell to around the 5450 mark or so back in Mar 07 all the panicking pessimists were headed for the exits. At that time I saw it as an opportunity and predicted that our market will go to 7000 points at some time this year. Those who've sold out have missed out on some reassonable profits out there. Yes, there is sure to be a major correction at some point down the track, but IMO I can't see it happening just yet. I would, however, be a tad cautious around Oct 07 this year. Taking profits along the way is often a sound strategy, selling in panic mode isn't. These are just my thoughts anyway.
DYOR

Hi greggy, Just wondering why Oct is so signifigant... please elaborate on that.

Cheers Ya'll

 

[nomore4s]

O/K I proved my thoughts being an elliott waver give me your thoughts on down waves
Just for my Curiosity after all when I called the top or decision time you now come out and say its wave five of five and long term is you say it after ME now you prove it why elliot wave says this or do I see the same things they do
Or like all elliot wavers you have an alternative count

um, Bean I'm pretty sure Tech and other EW practioners have said this for awhile. May have even been posted previously on this thread but I know it has been posted before on this site.

 

[greggy]

Hi greggy, Just wondering why Oct is so signifigant... please elaborate on that.

Cheers Ya'll

Hi Boyou,

With the 20th anniversary of the Oct 87 crash coming up this year I feel that there may well be a lot of scared people around who will use the anniversary as an excuse to take some profits off the table. No doubt with the market going on to new highs, the media will be out and about scaring people off the table. I also feel that up until this time that the market will continue to be very strong. My father who began trading in the 1960s and is speculating to this very day always told me to be careful about May and Oct (especially Oct) of each year as he felt that they were volatile months for the sharemarket. In 87 he predicted that the sharemarket would collapse and indeed it did in Oct just like it did in Oct 29. He reckons history repeats itself. Now having traded for 28 yrs I reckon this theory is pretty accurate. However, as I've said before, we're pretty safe for this month as we had a correction back in Mar 07. But I wouldn't be surprised should the market continue its strong upward run (7,000 this year I predicted back during the darkest days of the Mar 07 correction), thats it has a significant correction around Oct time. Its more psychology rather than anything else.
If want a very scary parallel, back in 1929 the Stanley Bruce Govt, a conservative govt, was brought down over IR lawas. At the following election, just before the crash, Stanley Bruce become the first PM to lose his seat. Shortly after the sharemarket crashed in Oct 1929. With a swing of around 4% or so needed to unseat Howard and a possible election defeat with IR laws being a central issue, could history be possibly repeated?
I'm still bullish, but am taking profits off the table as I go along. I currently have a financial interest in only BYR, ERL (via the option issue) and PXR (options).
DYOR

 

[nizar]

Greg i think if you look at historical data september is generally a worse month than october.

S&P500 only 5pts off alltime high.

Just like any stock, i expect the S&P will rally once the previous high and 6-years of resistance is taken out, probably next week.

 

[greggy]

Greg i think if you look at historical data september is generally a worse month than october.

S&P500 only 5pts off alltime high.

Just like any stock, i expect the S&P will rally once the previous high and 6-years of resistance is taken out, probably next week.

Hi Nizar,

I agree that the S&P will continue to rally. In relation to market performance I think that there's been more volatility over the years in Oct and that's when a number of crashes have occurred. Its partly explained by what I call the fear factor.

 

[CanOz]

Greg i think if you look at historical data september is generally a worse month than october.

S&P500 only 5pts off alltime high.

Just like any stock, i expect the S&P will rally once the previous high and 6-years of resistance is taken out, probably next week.

OR

It could double top.



Cheers,





S&P 500 futures

 

[nizar]

OR

It could double top.

Yeh, it could also plummet to 1,000.
Or was that beans target? LOL.

LIke iv said before, it doesnt pay to be a bear in a bullmarket.
We will know next week if its a blue sky break or a double top.

THanks for your thoughts, Can.

 

[Boyou]

Hi greggy, Thanks for the fullsome response to my question...lots of food for thought there.I am a newbie to the market ,have some small parcels in (mostly) gold explorers ..soon to be producers, I hope.
I will be keeping Oct in my mind,but one thing hits me about your ideas ...how bloody irrational it all is! (The market that is ..not your ideas)

Cheers Ya'll

 

[tech/a]

O/K I proved my thoughts being an elliott waver give me your thoughts on down waves
Just for my Curiosity after all when I called the top or decision time you now come out and say its wave five of five and long term is you say it after ME now you prove it why elliot wave says this or do I see the same things they do
Or like all elliot wavers you have an alternative count

I'm currently in Perth
3000kms from my computer and charting software.
Happy to run through the exercise when Im back (Monday) and have time.

On E/W counts.
As I explained in the thread on "Maybe this isnt the top" there are often alternate counts. All analysis---even yours is there to be proven OR disproven. Markets are dynamic and so should analysis.
Price action hasnt yet proven the top is in yet---in my view.

 

[tech/a]

Beens.

My E/W analysis on the XJO is here and has been for ages.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6211&page=7

This will be a wave 5 completion when the market proves that its been completed.
So far it hasnt.

Now is there anything else I can help you with?

 

[bean]

Beens.

My E/W analysis on the XJO is here and has been for ages.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6211&page=7

This will be a wave 5 completion when the market proves that its been completed.
So far it hasnt.

Now is there anything else I can help you with?

But I have this thing that if US Markets move up this week I may turn Bullish because the US Indexes that are still below May 9 th high (which are few) will breakout from that and that include the US gold indexes (I invest in gold and silver). If they do that then DOW will be 14000 plus over the next 10 days. Which will move all workd markets up?

Elliot wavers who have Gold bouncing would become right and if gold and gold stocks move higher then commodities would join the advance and your top would be wrong.

But I also have this thing that if they falter and decline early this week then most of the next ten days will be down and so will world markets.

But I only have a two three day max window left for the Dow (US Markets) to start its decline and if it does US gold indexes will move down with it and gold as well.

 

[CanOz]

But I have this thing that if US Markets move up this week I may turn Bullish because the US Indexes that are still below May 9 th high (which are few) will breakout from that and that include the US gold indexes (I invest in gold and silver). If they do that then DOW will be 14000 plus over the next 10 days. Which will move all workd markets up?

Elliot wavers who have Gold bouncing would become right and if gold and gold stocks move higher then commodities would join the advance and your top would be wrong.

But I also have this thing that if they falter and decline early this week then most of the next ten days will be down and so will world markets.

But I only have a two three day max window left for the Dow (US Markets) to start its decline and if it does US gold indexes will move down with it and gold as well.

With all due respect Bean, your starting to sound a bit silly. Perhaps you should get someone else to review your posts and let you know what they think.....its getting difficult to follow you.

I would hate to see you lose too much credibility, but someone here is really going to give you a serve unless you get 'your ducks in a row', if you know what i mean.

All the best,

 

[CanOz]

Seeing how gold is said to be a manipulated market i thought it would be interesting to look at other indicators that could mean a change is coming:

In no particular order (currency futures):

1.) The ozzie dollar is sitting just above the 10 year high and in a bullish pattern IMO.
2.) The British pound is just a wisker below its '92 high, same thing bullish.
3.) The loony (CDN) is at all time highs, or at least as far as my data goes back (25 yrs), as bullish as you can get having just broken out.
4.) The US dollar index is nearly as low as its ever been and in a serious decending wedge.
5.) The Euro is very close to all time highs and looks like breaking out.
6.) The Yen has just hit the bottom trendline of an ascending triangle.


On top of this you've got all time highs in many equity markets.

Also, US Treasury notes just hit support on Friday.

What does all this mean? Is this convergence on a massive scale? Or am i reading to much into all of this?

Got to be an interesting week.

Cheers,

 

[bean]

Now If I said the closing High I called on the 9th May in the US Markets is still in place.
Everyone would start laughing.

Lets take a look after friday's close
Nasdaq Conposite 9th May 2572 friday 2558
Nasdaq 100 9th May 1906 friday 1896
Nasdaq financial 100 7th May 3186 friday 3178
S&P 400 Midcap 9th May 899 friday 898
S&P Composite 1500 9th May 343 friday 342
S&P 600 smallcap 9th May 433 ?friday 428
And a few others as well. However some gave way on Friday just.
US Gold index are only a couple of % below there May highs and a few % below ther April Highs.

What I am saying if the DOW continues its advance at the begining of this week it will drag the above indexes with it?
Which would give more strength to its advance.
I also said the Nasdaq above 2550 would be back in bubble territory. On 26th April 2554 as you can see with the high it made on 9th May 2572 and friday's close 2558 it appears as thought it does not want to go higher? but could it be dragged higher

Us Gold indexes could be drag higher as well and will break out and Gold US750 -775 if they do that the DOW will be moving higher (lots 14500+??)

So there is roughly 3 days advance and the Dow maybe able to do the all the above

Basically the Bears have three days to take the Market down.
The above mentioned US indexes can still turn bearish with one or two days in a row down.
The others that just broke above there previous highs on Friday need two down in a row
So the next three days decide the next few weeks or months

As I said I may turn bullish during the week. But until then I am extremely Bearish.

 

[Sean K]

Now If I said the closing High I called on the 9th May in the US Markets is still in place.

Everyone would start laughing.

Bean, I've lost count of the number of predictions you have called which have not eventuated. Didn't the US hit a record on Friday? How could 9 May have been a top? I'm damn confused.

 

[Sean K]

What I am saying if the DOW continues its advance at the begining of this week it will drag the above indexes with it?

Which would give more strength to its advance.......

As I said I may turn bullish during the week. But until then I am extremely Bearish.

This is really damn confusing. Or funny.

 

[bean]

This is really damn confusing. Or funny.

Simple not every US Market is advancing.
Yet we have new records on the DOW most days.
If your not worried you should be.
Because the Dow is the only thing keeping those other Markets from turning Bearish.
So if the DOW does not advance
Well lookout below because these indexes have been partly correcting already.

 

[CanOz]

Simple not every US Market is advancing.
Yet we have new records on the DOW most days.
If your not worried you should be.
Because the Dow is the only thing keeping those other Markets from turning Bearish.
So if the DOW does not advance
Well lookout below because these indexes have been partly correcting already.

It adds more weight to the "someone's buying the index" theory posted by Wayne (i think) on the Int'L index trading thread.

Cheers,

 

[Sean K]

Simple not every US Market is advancing.
Yet we have new records on the DOW most days.
If your not worried you should be.
Because the Dow is the only thing keeping those other Markets from turning Bearish.
So if the DOW does not advance
Well lookout below because these indexes have been partly correcting already.

Been there will, of course, be a top formed sooner or later. The market may correct a few %, and then continue, or not, but I can't see how the indices you mention have partly 'corrected' already. The figures you have already quoted (below) have each index only just off it's highs. Hardly in correction mode. Markets do not just go in a straight line.

Lets take a look after friday's close
Nasdaq Conposite 9th May 2572 friday 2558
Nasdaq 100 9th May 1906 friday 1896
Nasdaq financial 100 7th May 3186 friday 3178
S&P 400 Midcap 9th May 899 friday 898
S&P Composite 1500 9th May 343 friday 342
S&P 600 smallcap 9th May 433 ?friday 428

I just hope you are right and the market goes through a bit of consolidation so we can move on.