Imminent and severe market correction

[bean]

Bean, I think your problem is that you don't post a chart or similar explaining things for the technical analysts here to give them comfort. At the same time it's a bold move to say the market will tank because 'of my indicators'. I can actually see a valid point in your advance decline ratios too; the markets are up but the a/d is usually telling another story.

The fact is, nobody knows with certaintly if it will tank massivly or when, so be prepared and take it as it comes. Who's going to blink first - the US Fed (Goldman Sachs) or the Chinese Fed (the Commies) - both have unlimited financial armour at their disposal. Protectionist wars still percolating!

Edit - actually some things starting to move now - copper & gold are getting hammered, oil up $2, and the Dow has just hit 'a big number' - 13500 (Nasdaq & SP500 down & flat). I wouldn't be surprised to see a 'Black Friday' correction day tomorrow?

Chinese copper inventories announced today I think.

I just posted and lost everything I said.
I do not do charts. I cannot I use numbers, I use them incorporated in different time frames into one program but give them different values.
I do look at charts of other people/analysis as guide

Last night action I new if my top I called on US markets was to stay in place they could not rise I had no leeway in price and time action.
I did not know what sort of action but I new it would not be up.

And I now have my price/time technical analysis etc etc
That if tonight is down and drops and has weakness, yes you are look at falls (get my two days in a row) Nasdaq should be approx 2% or more.

But if the DOW has strength it may pull market higher and my TOP is wrong.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

10 day a/d less than 1.00 since 26 th april
New highs / lows since then
adv vol/declne vol
all been decreasing and on number of occassion bwlow 1.00
a dow day of signifiance bring thenm down to 0.75 or less

Bean are we talking about the same Naz?

Did you look at the chart do u look at any charts? It made new highs in may! so how was it making lower lows in April!

Good trading to you mate.

 

[bean]

I called first top 26th April
So weakness would have had to have started before
From the 17th of April to date 23 trading days

Dow has risen on 18

Lets look at say advance declining stock for example
Dow only has 30 easy to manipulate and have every seeing the market is going great new whoopie!!

Of those 23 trading days advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks
NYSE on 10 days do we have a problem here

surely the NASDAQ must be better
Only 8

Technically wise just on that it sure looks like a declining market to me
without doing any figures or charts

You are looking at the Dow making new highs so you are thinking everything is rosey

Look inside and you might see something different
Thats why I don't use charts
I look at WHY

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Perhapes if we keep this thread going for another 12 months we will see this so called "severe and IMMINENT market correction"

All I've seen since Feb is huge gains and alot of comments from well respected people saying the economic environment looks positive for the future.

I keep hearing people say this resembles the 87 build up before correction but since 87 there have been so many changes to world economics and world development.

Hedge funds, private equity the growth in China and India coupled with 6-7 % growth in africa and there is still plenty of opportunity out there.

Whos to say past trends are exact indicator for future trends. My point is there have been milestones in history where the fundamentals of economics change and nobody can predict the future outcomes. eg. Adam Smith wealth of nations etc. perhapes we are seeing one of these evolutions now?

 

[greggy]

When the market fell to around the 5450 mark or so back in Mar 07 all the panicking pessimists were headed for the exits. At that time I saw it as an opportunity and predicted that our market will go to 7000 points at some time this year. Those who've sold out have missed out on some reassonable profits out there. Yes, there is sure to be a major correction at some point down the track, but IMO I can't see it happening just yet. I would, however, be a tad cautious around Oct 07 this year. Taking profits along the way is often a sound strategy, selling in panic mode isn't. These are just my thoughts anyway.
DYOR

 

[>Apocalypto<]

KIWIKARLOS, greggy

very good posts guys very realistic.

 

[professor_frink]

I called first top 26th April
So weakness would have had to have started before
From the 17th of April to date 23 trading days

Dow has risen on 18

Lets look at say advance declining stock for example
Dow only has 30 easy to manipulate and have every seeing the market is going great new whoopie!!

Of those 23 trading days advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks
NYSE on 10 days do we have a problem here

surely the NASDAQ must be better
Only 8

Technically wise just on that it sure looks like a declining market to me
without doing any figures or charts

You are looking at the Dow making new highs so you are thinking everything is rosey

Look inside and you might see something different
Thats why I don't use charts
I look at WHY

That post makes absolutely no sense to me. Am I missing something here? anyone?

 

[CanOz]

Its bloody obvious to me that we'll have a correction...its a no brainer...when is the only question...its liquidity thats keeping markets pumping, not fundementals.

Whats so annoying about Bean's comments is the fragmented ramblings..."the Dow is being manipulated"...duh! Gold up, Dow up, Gold down, Dow up...who cares.

The markets are choppy, churning, no clear turn yet though.

Life goes on, trade your plan's man!

Cheers,

 

[bean]

Edit - actually some things starting to move now - copper & gold are getting hammered, oil up $2, and the Dow has just hit 'a big number' - 13500 (Nasdaq & SP500 down & flat). I wouldn't be surprised to see a 'Black Friday' correction day tomorrow?

Chinese copper inventories announced today I think.

Now If I was a BEAR and looking at attacking the US Markets.
It would play out like this

Yes tonight I would look at hitting the markets
Hopefully 200 points down on the Dow would be good
Nasdaq and a few other US Indexes down 2% or more that would turn some bearish

On Monday follow up with another attack on the Dow
Get it to break 13200
Could take Tuesday to finally put 13200 and 13000 to rest and turning the Dow bearish (under 13200) to join the other markets and hopefully taking out 13000 on the way
And putting a gap between closing price and 13000
Monday may be all it takes but Tuesday for good measure


Of course we all know no one can say what the markets will do.
They will do what they want.

 

[hacheln_mice]

Bean, what you stated above is unlikely given that Friday is options expirations in the US. Insto's will be trying to pin the strikes, and over the past few years, this has meant flat to positive movements on the markets. Moreover, shorts will probably to tempted to exit the week flat in anticipation of 'merger Monday'.

Anyway, the yen crosses aren't acting bearishly yet.

It's okay to be cautious now, but I don't think it's ever wise to try and time a crash. (Hope what I said does not actually break the market: )

 

[tech/a]

I called first top 26th April
So weakness would have had to have started before
From the 17th of April to date 23 trading days

Dow has risen on 18

Lets look at say advance declining stock for example
Dow only has 30 easy to manipulate and have every seeing the market is going great new whoopie!!

Of those 23 trading days advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks
NYSE on 10 days do we have a problem here

surely the NASDAQ must be better
Only 8

Technically wise just on that it sure looks like a declining market to me
without doing any figures or charts

You are looking at the Dow making new highs so you are thinking everything is rosey

Look inside and you might see something different
Thats why I don't use charts
I look at WHY

Thanks for clearing that up.

For those interested in elliot.

On the Daily's this is a wave 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 making it a major top (when it is confirmed).
Its also a wave 5 on the Weekly's.
It will be a Wave 3 completion on Larger timeframe. (I'm not near my Computer so cant post charts (actually 3000k away).

See Panic thread if interested in some E/W charts I posted a week or so ago.

 

[noirua]

All eyes on China as the balloon grows bigger and bigger! Will the giant pin prick the baloon?

Will the subsequent draft blow down the surrounding packs of cards in Asia?

Will Australasia wobble and crash?

Will the Americas glide into recession?

Will Europe stall?

But maybe, the boom will go on and on?

Maybe, it's all different now and we are in a new world lead by China, India and Emerging Markets?

Maybe, Japan is about to come completely out of its shell and drive on up?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

All eyes on China as the balloon grows bigger and bigger! Will the giant pin prick the baloon? Will the subsequent draft blow down the surrounding packs of cards in Asia?

China China China

First its the US housing market now china wonder what the next bogey man will be!

Tech/a

Your info on Elliot

Are you talking about Naz or question I asked you about All ords?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Interesting times indeed. The next issue to face could be the effects of rising interest rates in the Euro zone showing up in various property markets coming off the boil, eg Spain is in a bit of trouble.

 

[tech/a]

Trade it.

The Ords.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Trade it.

The Ords.

Cheers Tech,

Was reading YTA (your trading edge) last night and Tom Schoulen was saying that wave 5 would be the next major wave after a bigger correction larger time frame. That's If i am on the right path in seeing what his chart said as i have a very basic understanding of wave. just wanted to check with other wave users.

what r u up 2, out in the sticks?

 

[tech/a]

what r u up 2, out in the sticks?

In Perth for a Mates 50th.
Which after Lunch on Wednesday seems it will morph into an engagement party for him and his partner--(She proposed at lunch!!) on Saturday night.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

In Perth for a Mates 50th.
Which after Lunch on Wednesday seems it will morph into an engagement party for him and his partner--(She proposed at lunch!!) on Saturday night.

She proposed! That is not common, he must be quite a catch.

 

[bean]

This is tongue in cheek---isnt it.



Technically speaking---perhaps you could expand on your definition of a technical confirmation that a market (any market) has turned bearish.
Particularly after a 2 day move.



Perhaps you could also expand on technical bullish qualifications.



The only thing we will know for certain are the closing prices.

O/K I proved my thoughts being an elliott waver give me your thoughts on down waves
Just for my Curiosity after all when I called the top or decision time you now come out and say its wave five of five and long term is you say it after ME now you prove it why elliot wave says this or do I see the same things they do
Or like all elliot wavers you have an alternative count

 

[bean]

Actually I just thought something for fun lets see who can produced the movements on the US markets for 10 days in advance
After all you are now saying wave five of five
Not that I want to say where are you coming from