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IIN - iiNet Limited

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Re: IIN - iinet

maybe IIN could take over telstra and transfer their systems and take the whole network up a notch? OK, sorry.

IS there a chance that Optus could float and take over IIN to make a very competitive alternative to TLS in 2 years time when the labour government has begun implementing the NBN strategy?

Yes I know this is a smart alec email (with 5 massive assumptions above), but with all these assumptions comes some possibilities that may need to be considered one day - (open to being called names at this point).

What I'm getting at is that IIN seems to have the best service and the edge on the competition when it comes to product development. Note the T-box for an example...
I hold IIN, TLS.
 
Re: IIN - iinet

The movie studios' appeal against the trial judge's decision finding against them in their claim against IIN commenced this past week. It will probably be a good six months before the full bench of the Federal Court hands down its decision.
 
Re: IIN - iinet

Anyone following Iinet? Recent price moves have been down - sale at $2.45 yesterday. Has been bouncing between 2.50 and 3.00 for a while now - so interesting to see if it has another bounce. Haven't seen any news that explains the recent fall - is this because of the court case?
 
Need advice on IIN

Hi,

Being new, I have recently invested a significant amount of my personal savings into a single stock (the more I read, the more I see this as a mistake).

I need some advice on if I should cut my losses and sell before the downward trend continues, or if anyone believes this stock could correct back up to (at least) above $2.62.

I am willing to hold on to these stocks for another 4-6 weeks max and would really like to know if anyone thinks the stock could hit $2.62

the stock is IIN. Chart below. I bought at $2.57... Unfortunately on the day I purchased, the stocks dropped and have settled at the $2.50 mark.


Any help would be greatly appreciated.

iin2.jpg
 
Re: Need advice on IIN

talonsmail said:
Hi,

Being new, I have recently invested a significant amount of my personal savings into a single stock (the more I read, the more I see this as a mistake).

I need some advice on if I should cut my losses and sell before the downward trend continues, or if anyone believes this stock could correct back up to (at least) above $2.62.

I am willing to hold on to these stocks for another 4-6 weeks max and would really like to know if anyone thinks the stock could hit $2.62

the stock is IIN. Chart below. I bought at $2.57... Unfortunately on the day I purchased, the stocks dropped and have settled at the $2.50 mark.


Any help would be greatly appreciated.

View attachment 41553
Click to expand...

No one can give you advise here on specific stocks or what to do with your money.

From a trading/investing point of view, my personal approach is always that - if I made a mistake I correct it straight away, regardless of whether I am in a loss or not.

The daily chart is looking weak but the weekly chart is still somewhat respectible.

IIN is halted now so I guess you just have to keep your fingers crossed. Good luck.
 
Re: Need advice on IIN

talonsmail said:
Hi,

Being new, I have recently invested a significant amount of my personal savings into a single stock (the more I read, the more I see this as a mistake).

I need some advice on if I should cut my losses and sell before the downward trend continues, or if anyone believes this stock could correct back up to (at least) above $2.62.

I am willing to hold on to these stocks for another 4-6 weeks max and would really like to know if anyone thinks the stock could hit $2.62

the stock is IIN. Chart below. I bought at $2.57... Unfortunately on the day I purchased, the stocks dropped and have settled at the $2.50 mark.


Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Click to expand...

Hey, I'm fairly new to stock market investing too. I've taken over the management of the family SMSF recently. Steep learning curve.

I bought some IIN in November 2010 for $5.35. I almost sold when it kept hitting resistance at 2.90 in Jan but wanting to be a long term investor I jut put my stop loss in at my buy price and waited to see what happened. I got stopped out this week at $5.35 exactly which was nice because often I get lower than my trigger price on conditional stop loss orders.

Unfortunately there is too much uncertainty in the telco/ISP industry at the moment with no one knowing what the structure of the industry is going to be with the NBN, when it's going to happen (if ever). Also, IIN has been on the acquisition path and this has dented its return on assets for the moment. Also, the guerrilla in the room is a potentially resurgent Telstra with it's war chest booty from the sale of its copper network to the NBN which is in the pipeline.

It's not a good time in the cycle for telcos.

Back in November I rearranged the SMSF portfolio choosing stocks which I perceived to be at a large discount to intrinsic value. Since then, having read Dan Wiesman's 'How to profit in bull and bear markets' and Alan Hulls 'Active Investing', I've added an important criteria to my buy strategy; the stock must be in a sustained upswing. Capital preservation is an important part of our investing strategy. So IIN would not meet my buy criteria today.

I can't give you personal advice, but I reckon there might be better opportunities out there in the short term. There is no doubt from a fundamental analysis perspective that the stock is substantially undervalued in the market. You have to decide whether you are prepared to sit on the stock in the long run and wait for the market to catch up to it's intrinsic value.

I subscribe to Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor for fundamental research of ASX stocks to identify buying opportunities. I also read Roger Montgomery's blog and watch Switzer TV for tips and info.

Good luck investing.
 
Re: IIN - Iinet

Looks like they beat the rap and came out trumps in the court case so may be a better day tomorrow ...
 
Re: IIN - Iinet

Fingers crossed.

It's all about supply and demand though isn't it? iinet may have won the appeal but that was more of a risk than something that would build confidence in the company itself (thus driving prices up) unless Im missing something?
 
Re: IIN - Iinet

I don't like iinet latest report, too much spin and I reckon AAPT purchase will turn out to be a dog ..wait and see ....

This company effective grow market share by buying up other ISP but not from organic growth..history tell you when companies do this eventually they hit a dead end as there are no other business left to buy..

After AAPT there isnt much left for iinet to buy out ...things will look interest from here on...

I give you an example of ABC learning, that effective what it been doing for 5 years...grow revenue by buy up other childcares not saying iinet is ABC learning but follow a very similar pattern...

after few years of crazy acquisition there isn't many child care left to buy....and return on equity slow as they get bigger...

In desperation to boost ROE they turn to cheap debt... then came GFC debt isnt cheap...no more place to buy to boost revenues...a bit of clever accounting and a bit of related party transaction and ABC went out with a boom :)

Beware of companies that grow by nothing but acquisition and watch the grow in goodwills because when earning decline these will turn into a very very bad will :)

just be alert but don't be alarm for now...
 
Re: IIN - iinet

fanger said:
Half yearly report seemed good - revenue up 45%
Click to expand...

This figure means nothing, dont be fooled by it
stuff that really matter is EPS, ROE, Profit Margin etc...

I have 2 business one generate 50% increase in revenue each year but deliver static EPS
another one increase revenue by 10% but deliver EPS increase 10% which business should I buy?

Their employee cost actually rise and their margin is dropping so not so good
if you look at it that way.... Earning is ok but with all these acquisition how come they not growing their EPS hmmm, what a waste of money if you buy business that doesn't deliver increase EPS.

Another weird stuff on page 6 of their consolidated financial statement they compared this half to last 6 months rather than last year half

the way I see it it is more consistence to compare 1H2010 to 1H2009
but not 1H2010 to 2H2009, it maybe nothing
 
Re: IIN - Iinet

ROE said:
I don't like iinet latest report, too much spin and I reckon AAPT purchase will turn out to be a dog ..wait and see ....

This company effective grow market share by buying up other ISP but not from organic growth..history tell you when companies do this eventually they hit a dead end as there are no other business left to buy..

After AAPT there isnt much left for iinet to buy out ...things will look interest from here on...

I give you an example of ABC learning, that effective what it been doing for 5 years...grow revenue by buy up other childcares not saying iinet is ABC learning but follow a very similar pattern...

after few years of crazy acquisition there isn't many child care left to buy....and return on equity slow as they get bigger...

In desperation to boost ROE they turn to cheap debt... then came GFC debt isnt cheap...no more place to buy to boost revenues...a bit of clever accounting and a bit of related party transaction and ABC went out with a boom :)

Beware of companies that grow by nothing but acquisition and watch the grow in goodwills because when earning decline these will turn into a very very bad will :)

just be alert but don't be alarm for now...
Click to expand...

In a recent interview with the CPU CEO that i read, he was talking about the business reaching a point where they had "run out of world" as in organic expansion and expansion thru acquisition had become very limited due to the fact that there was nowhere left to expand into....iinet is realistically in the same boat, in that they ran out of Australia, growth by acquisition became the only real growth strategy.

Seriously ROE all successful business eventually "run out of world" jezz just look at BHP, its buy stuff or stagnate for them...same as IIN, nothing at all wrong with buying growth as long as its done on terms that facilitate continued growth.

And just look at the ISP competition there was just 5 or 6 years ago

  • Telstra
  • Optus
  • Internode
  • iinet
  • AAPT*
  • Iprimus
  • TPG
  • Exetel
  • Netspace*
  • Westnet*
  • Adam
  • Dodo
  • amnet

* Now owned by iinet...there was a need for consolidation, i mean you cant have a consolidation if there is not enough players to enable it.
 
Re: Need advice on IIN

talonsmail said:
Hi,

Being new, I have recently invested a significant amount of my personal savings into a single stock (the more I read, the more I see this as a mistake).

I need some advice on if I should cut my losses and sell before the downward trend continues, or if anyone believes this stock could correct back up to (at least) above $2.62.

I am willing to hold on to these stocks for another 4-6 weeks max and would really like to know if anyone thinks the stock could hit $2.62

the stock is IIN. Chart below. I bought at $2.57... Unfortunately on the day I purchased, the stocks dropped and have settled at the $2.50 mark.


Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Click to expand...
You need to learn how to gauge the value of companies. Especially if you are committing substantial funds. The simplest gauge is the return-on-equity gauge. If you weight the profit per dollar of equity with the share price vs book value per share, you can get a rough idea of the value of the company. Roger Montgomery (can check him out on youtube) details this fairly simple method.

If there is value there, if you see evidence that iinet is gaining market share over competitors, if you see new things iinet are doing that will give them an edge, these are good things that would indicate you should hold. The price action on the graph only shows the previous market sentiment, there is very little information in the graph as to what next weeks market sentiment will be.

This move it has made is rather tiny, talonsmail. You should see other stocks. For me, if this was an investment rather than a short time speculation, I wouldn't see this move as relevant: I would see it as 'market noise'. Stock prices bounce all over the place, but the value of the business moves smoothly and steadily - slowly dragging the stock price with it. DYOR, value the business, then make your decision. :2twocents
 
Re: IIN - Iinet

Unsurprisingly, AFACT lost the appeal against Cowdroy J's decision. They now have 28 days to apply for special leave to appeal to the High Court. I imagine the film studios will do so (they basically said they would in the run-up to the decision). Again, having read the decision, I can't see how AFACT will win an appeal, but no doubt they will enrich the bank accounts of some already wealthy QCs in the appeal.

I have no opinion on iiNet (though my family has our phone and internet bundled with iiNet and we're reasonably happy with them).
 
Re: IIN - iiNet

A little bit of a plunge (4%) occurred at the end of trading today... any particular reason or just short term market noise?
 
Re: IIN - iiNet

I folded for a loss. It just seems to keep going down and I was only in short. I think most of you are right, it is all about the true value of a business. Sometimes I forget Im investing money into a real business and just see it as a dollar and cent amount for x shares without considering the direction of the company (instead focussing solely on market price).

Glad to be rid of these ones anyways!..
 
Re: IIN - iiNet

I entered iinet today at $2.25 ~ i probably shouldn't of been buying in on an up day but as usual didn't want to see the SP get away from me, and since i was prepared to buy in a few weeks ago at 2.60 buying at today price and yield (6.3% gross approx) seemed like the right thing to do.

I like iinet, its a business that's easy to understand, operating in a growth industry with potential to seemingly grow for maybe another 20 or 30 years....a big online customer base means iinet have easy access to low cost add on sales of all sorts of goods and services.

The NBN will level the communications playing field somewhat allowing the dominant players to dominate and the innovators to innovate....should mention that as an Amcom shareholder i will get some IIN shares due to the in specie distribution of Amcom's shareholding of iinet shares...so seemed like a good idea to increase my holding up to a suitable position size.
 
Re: IIN - iiNet

Today was the first day of trading for the new Amcom shareholders in iinet and on what was a somewhat spectacular down day....not much happened to the iinet SP, a bit of a sell off non event really. :D

A little more volume than usual but the share price certainly didn't tank, actually trading slightly above last weeks low...perhaps in general the small cap Amcon share holders that are now iinet share holders didn't really give a toss about the short term machinations of the market...were well inside their investment comfort zone. :D
 
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