Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

I predict

Interest rates falling by 2-3% would help me finance a new fence to keep the undesirables at bay.

Maybe we should consider a moat!
 
I predict a rise in nationalist movements and socialist and protectionist policies. Countries will move to tighten their borders, electronic and possibly physical.

I predict civil unrest in quite a few countries.
 
I think we will soon be heading for massive inflation, which is really going to destroy retail, especially under a recessionary environment.

First of all our dollar has crashed some 20% in the last 2 months against the USD. I cannot see this having anything less than major effects on pricing on consumer items, as I can't see retailers wearing these sorts of changes in their margins.

As the Chinese currency is pegged to the USD, there is a direct attachment to all "cheap" chinese imports. At a guestimate that makes up some 80% of all the regular items we buy - cheap clothes, furniture, computers, electronics goods. Instantly up by 20% next year?

The Japanese yen has also soared against the AUD with the end of the carry trade, further putting pressures on items from Japan. I am thinking here some electronics, industrial machinery and most importantly new cars. As one of our largest trading partners there are no doubt other imports which will be effected.

Building materials will increase even further, making the cost of building new homes/projects very difficult at prices people can afford.

Soon I also expect credit inflation to really kick in. I think we are in the honeymoon period still, where it has yet to really flow through. There is talk of the credit markets moderating, but that is only a short-term movement.

Overseas banks soon will be really shutting down their lines of credit to the Aussie banks, as their own corporate borrowers default under heavy recession, and they go into major survival mode. Lending to Aus, will be the least of their priorities.

If they see *any signs* of a recession for Australia, increased unemployment, etc their economists will also be telling them of the increased risk of lending money to the Aussies. They will be studying charts of our house prices and go "well we know where that is going" based on the bias of their own market. They will see straight through the things our local economists are hoping will protect our market, or at least choose to ignore them. End result is the same.

While the RBA may push rates down towards 0%, which will help, for long-term funding the overseas lenders are going to require massive risk premiums. The longer the global recession goes on for, the higher odds of this happening as funding has to be rolled over. Will this mean 8/9/10%+ rates?

I can tell you this will absolutely SHATTER our housing market, who thinks they've just passed this part of the cycle. The general belief is that rates are heading back towards 6.5% mortgages.

People are still buying in with this belief. First home buyers are going in with this belief. Investors are going in with 6.5% rates factored in, and x% yields based on this belief. Nobody is out there believing rates will start shooting up again, but it's the sort of black swan that could really destroy things.
 
Just finished watching Galapagos on ABC were every few years El Niño comes along and floods the place with fresh water thereby wiping out all the Sea foods and Moss and killing of a large percentage of the locals so no matter what you do some things are unavoidable just like what we are about to go through, no matter how much you save do things differently to avoid a disaster you will be sunk.
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I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.

:(
Or, even just generally, as the world grows and expands and there are more people fighting for fewer resources, things will turn ugly.

Very ugly.

We can't even get on with our neighbours and have these huge fences up around us and double dead locked doors.

Imaging 3b people in China in 25 years...


World faces growing risk of conflict, says Michael McConnell
By Jim Mannion in Washington | November 01, 2008

THE world faces a growing risk of conflict over the next 20 to 30 years amid an unprecedented transfer of wealth and power from West to East, the US intelligence chief says.

Michael McConnell, the director of national intelligence, predicted rising demand for scarce supplies of food and fuel, strategic competition over new technologies, and the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

By 2025, China was likely to have the world's second largest economy and to have emerged as a major military power,
 
Interest rates down by another 1% next Tuesday.

I think you may be right, I don't have a lot of faith in Glen Stevens, something not right there.

Bank told me yesterday, deposit rate has dropped to 6% from 7.2% I should have asked if their mortgage and credit card rates went down the same amount , bastards, I can hardly wait to draw it all out and invest it somewhere else.
 
Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
It's just lucky we have the room to move.

Savings income will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.

ASX down to early 3000's within 6 months.

Commodity boom bust and financial institutions problems means we have nothing to hold it up.

Property will collapse within 12 months perhaps less, commercial and residential will all go

Recovery ..well cant see that far ahead just yet.

And so I advise............

Another correct call, I'm a ****ing genius !
 
nice work there monty.

now please predict some profits, so we can all make some more money.

jonny

Spoke too soon, it's still above 3500, big bounce soon, but we havent had the perfect storm yes, banks and RIO and BHP all free falling at once.

Make money ? ok here you go -

Compadres, it is imperaitve that we crush the freedom fighters before the start of the rainy season. And remember, a shiny new donkey for whoever brings me the head of Colonel Montoya.
 
i think he won a badge at least

I think his prediction is a very easy one to predict. The deleveraging effect is much greater (i.e the pull on spending) than the amount the governments can throw in. What they are trying to do is restore confidence to stop this slide, and do so with the greatest bang for their buck.

In other words their spending does very little however if people believe it will change something then it will stop the deleveraging or at least slow it down - which I believe it has.
there's always risk factors that can change your prediction making it a risky punt. if you go short and the government announces some stimulus package or two and the market rallies for a little while. ironically governments around the world are the only risk factor to real easy money.
 
if someone last year said to me that they predict XAO will be 3500... i'd book them into a mental asylum and ask that the keys to be thrown away....

what a prediction that would have been...

now what is the latest prediction now? 1500??? surely there's got to be 'value' somewhere?
 
Make money ? ok here you go -

Compadres, it is imperaitve that we crush the freedom fighters before the start of the rainy season. And remember, a shiny new donkey for whoever brings me the head of Colonel Montoya.

And by that I mean, it's time for the worker of the week award!

Not a cent, you dont believe I'd take my own advice when there are perfectly good Financial Advisors out there ? :rolleyes:

Hm... a pack of vicious dogs should be ripping you to pieces. Very well. Come on in. Perhaps I have something I can scald you with.



I was hoping for a different simpson's quote to be thrown at me then:

Lady, he's putting my kids through college:)
 
+14.7% Sept08 for Frinky's waistline

Here's something else I can relate to.

The only way to lose weight is not to eat at all which is a little hard, so today I had a couple of potato cakes and half a chicken, mmmmmmm looking forward to dinner.:mad:
 
Does this means chicks will not be able to affod to get their hair done and fake tans anymore cos that would be funny ****..
I question where the best place to put our money would be?? In a safe under my bed or in a bank?? Gold bullion?? Lol:banghead:
 
I am considering a bottom here @ 3500 or there abouts.

Markets don't need to wait for all the bad news to come out before they factor it in. I think most of the gloom is understood and built into the index at this level.

Also the chart below would suggest a bounce from these levels off a long term rising trendline. Sorry, can't draw on this chart.

The interest rates may also add a little support.

I haven't invested, but may look to if this level holds.

:2twocents
 

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