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I predict

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Is the First homers $$ to prop up the banks or builders?
Rudd must know houses are going down and the FHO will owe more than what the place is worth before they move in.
 
Glen48 said:
Is the First homers $$ to prop up the banks or builders?
Rudd must know houses are going down and the FHO will owe more than what the place is worth before they move in.
Click to expand...

Both really, if the housing sector falters it drags on the whole economy.

Trouble is Rudd or anyone else cant change whats going to happen but I guess he has to try, but he should not be using new home buyers as canon fodder.
 
MrBurns said:
Are you a psychiatrist or just a patient ?
Click to expand...

They (past connections and their societal puppets) wanted me to play patient.Upon realising this I decided to become the ..... observer.

I often observe, intently sometimes, the functions of human being.At this stage I have found there is much more anger/resentment/revenge/payback/tit for tat/bitterness than ever before in history (apart from the world wars which were of a different reason).

A capitalist society is a competitive one in which someone wins and someone loses.

Money (power, control) versus no money (desperate, prisoner, depressed)

So to answer your question, BOTH.:)
 
People are only nice to each other because simmering below the surface are the suppressed nasty bits which they don`t want to reveal.
 
Wysiwyg said:
They (past connections and their societal puppets) wanted me to play patient.Upon realising this I decided to become the ..... observer.

I often observe, intently sometimes, the functions of human being.At this stage I have found there is much more anger/resentment/revenge/payback/tit for tat/bitterness than ever before in history (apart from the world wars which were of a different reason).

A capitalist society is a competitive one in which someone wins and someone loses.

Money (power, control) versus no money (desperate, prisoner, depressed)

So to answer your question, BOTH.:)
Click to expand...


Yes road rage up everything is anger, competitiveness and rather unpleasant.

The media have to shoulder much of the blame they incite unrest and then report it for their own profit, but that's democracy for you.:(
 
2020hindsight said:
hey burnsy - just a bit of light relief ok? (in between mowing, planting yet more pumpkins and stuff ;)

PS I'm working on a pumpkin lead recovery here. :2two XXX 1onecent

PS I realise it's unkosher to take a swipe at someone's nic - just that you seem to enjoy Mr burn's style :cool:

"they xerox their buttocks
and do it on company time" lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21wjkle8P2A&feature=related
Mr Burns the boss ..
Click to expand...

Excellent, I wasnt aware that I could sing:cool:
 
MrBurns said:
Yes thats right 2020 using first home buyers to try to prop up a doomed property market, they will be the sacrificial lambs because the market will fall anyway taking them with it.
Click to expand...

Mr Burns, where are you getting your data from? BIS Shrapnel? HIA? BSA?

There are still lines of people looking for rental property. Affordable entry level housing will be in very strong demand. Real estate may well retrace, but how can you call a first home buyer a sacrificail lamb if they are in for the long haul? A $300k house in suburbia looks a hell of a lot more attractive with a $21k discount and possible stamp duty exclusions. With a 10% deposit on a standard variable loan you are looking at about $1900 p/m + mortgage insurance.
With a 20% deposit it's even easier breathing.

Townhouses coming in at just on $200k will have first home owners in better shape even when taking into account rates and body corp / sinking funds.

There is a lot being done in the industry with innovative products and new building practices to help lower rising costs. Steel prices will settle ( I bet the steel industry wished they locked in contracts longer than the six months they have been offering to heavyweights) as offshore demand retraces. Expect these new innovations to hit the market in the new year. Patents have been lodged and trials are being completed.

There are great opportunities to buy and have been for the last 3 years. There are still places 90 minutes from Brisbane CBD with great offerings for less than $200k with excellent rental returns.

Yep, we are in for some more shocks, but the sky hasn't fallen and it is unlikely to IMO. I guess we have a differing opinion on these matters.


cheers,
 
Wysiwyg said:
People are only nice to each other because simmering below the surface are the suppressed nasty bits which they don`t want to reveal.
Click to expand...

Really? Perhaps, then, I'm naive but I have found most people to be pretty decent, capable of kindness, and on the whole reasonably likeable.
 
Stan 101 said:
Mr Burns, where are you getting your data from? BIS Shrapnel? HIA? BSA?

Where do I get my data from ? I've been there and done that before, early 90's, whats coming is as plain as the nose on your face.

There are still lines of people looking for rental property. Affordable entry level housing will be in very strong demand. Real estate may well retrace, but how can you call a first home buyer a sacrificial lamb if they are in for the long haul? A $300k house in suburbia looks a hell of a lot more attractive with a $21k discount and possible stamp duty exclusions. With a 10% deposit on a standard variable loan you are looking at about $1900 p/m + mortgage insurance.

There are great opportunities to buy and have been for the last 3 years. There are still places 90 minutes from Brisbane CBD with great offerings for less than $200k with excellent rental returns.

Yep, we are in for some more shocks, but the sky hasn't fallen and it is unlikely to IMO. I guess we have a differing opinion on these matters.


cheers,
Click to expand...


This deal is only available till June next year, there's a reason for this , Rudd needs people to buy into this market NOW, you're average Joe isn't that stupid so he bribes first home buyers.

Sacrificial lambs because even though they are in for the long haul many wont make it because of whats to come it wont be just the price drop it will be job losses which Rudd has already admitted will happen in a big way, how can that p**ck tell people jobs will go then entice them into the housing market ? It's incredible.

The extra 10-15 or 20 K they get wont be worth a crumpet when the prices fall and there are job losses.

I was talking Melbourne but it will happen all over even in sunny Qld.
 
MrBurns said:
This deal is only available till June next year, there's a reason for this , Rudd needs people to buy into this market NOW, you're average Joe isn't that stupid so he bribes first home buyers.

Sacrificial lambs because even though they are in for the long haul many wont make it because of whats to come it wont be just the price drop it will be job losses which Rudd has already admitted will happen in a big way, how can that p**ck tell people jobs will go then entice them into the housing market ? It's incredible.

The extra 10-15 or 20 K they get wont be worth a crumpet when the prices fall and there are job losses.

I was talking Melbourne but it will happen all over even in sunny Qld.
Click to expand...


mr Burns, I don't want to sound like I'm singling you out. But I must ask where your insights are coming from? I do understand this is a "prediction" thread, but unless you are in our mate Yogi's realm, it seems you just have a total disregard for one Mr Rudd and all your predictions are based in contempt for him and him alone.

Cheers,
 
Stan 101 said:
mr Burns, I don't want to sound like I'm singling you out. But I must ask where your insights are coming from? I do understand this is a "prediction" thread, but unless you are in our mate Yogi's realm, it seems you just have a total disregard for one Mr Rudd and all your predictions are based in contempt for him and him alone.

Cheers,
Click to expand...

Sorry if it comes across that way, I'm just disappointed with him along with a lot of others. When he was first elected I was impressed... but no more.

I've been there before in the crash of the early 90's. I live in an upmarket Melbourne suburb and my home value dropped 30% then.

This economic scene is far far worse so what can we expect this time, it seems obvious it will be worse, by how much who can tell.
 
MrBurns said:
This deal is only available till June next year, there's a reason for this , Rudd needs people to buy into this market NOW, you're average Joe isn't that stupid so he bribes first home buyers.

Sacrificial lambs because even though they are in for the long haul many wont make it because of whats to come it wont be just the price drop it will be job losses which Rudd has already admitted will happen in a big way, how can that p**ck tell people jobs will go then entice them into the housing market ? It's incredible.

The extra 10-15 or 20 K they get wont be worth a crumpet when the prices fall and there are job losses.

I was talking Melbourne but it will happen all over even in sunny Qld.
Click to expand...

agrees with the guy with the long nose.
perhaps our govt. doesn't understand that all this mess started with sub-prime (+derivitives): ie lending to those not able to afford housing at the current prices - the dominoes started to fall long before significant jobs were lost.
govt. now appears to be saying; don't worry about sub-prime, we can do it with free deposits - that's different! yeah like how?
::
the current crop of youngsters have no idea about saving and spending wisely - there has never been a need to do that for 2 generations so why will it change??
sorry but it already has but the govt is saying, don't worry folks - we are here with a huge surplus: just carry on being stupid and we will bail you out as the provider of last resort.
The school of hard knocks has reopened folks.
 
There was someone from a welfare group on the ABC news who stated almost exactly what I've said so lets hope the message gets through.
 
2020hindsight said:
"they xerox their buttocks
and do it on company time" lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21wjkle8P2A&feature=related
Mr Burns the boss ..
Click to expand...

Mr Burns said:
Excellent, I wasnt aware that I could sing
Click to expand...

:topic Warning to people attending Xmas parties !!! ok ??!!

Completely off topic - just that I knew a girl who worked in an office in town - one Xmas party had a bit too much to drink - and flinging caution and her nickers to the wind - sat on the xerox machine .. :eek:

PS I predict she won't get that drunk again :eek:
 
treefrog said:
agrees with the guy with the long nose.
perhaps our govt. doesn't understand that all this mess started with sub-prime (+derivitives)
Click to expand...

Treefrog, there is a big difference to the NINJA loans in the States and our "no doc" loans. So different I can't even comprehend how you can compare them? Are you aware of the differences between an Australian loan and these NiNJAs that have flooded America?
We don't have the low, low honeymoon rates and then the huge increase 2 years or so down the track. Also, I would like to know how you can simply walk away from a home and the associated loan executed in Australia without the bank chasing you down to the ends of the earth.

We have basic regulations to save stupid/ignorant/desperate people from taking on debt they can't afford. The Americans, it seems in hindsite, certainly didn't/don't care about the consumer and allow truly devious consortiums to sign up people knowing full well that after the honeymoon period the extra 10% or whatever they can hide in the fine print, will sink them. The other option was to refinance before the high rates kicked in, with the assumption there would be equity due to a growing market. The market stopped growing. Opps! God bless America's free markets.


So tell me, please how is the US's NINJAs in any way like Australia's lending practices?

But I digress. So an Aussie battler is having issues paying off the P+I on a loan. They can wander down to the local branch and change to IO for a bit of breathing space or they sell. If they lose, bad luck. People have lost in property before and we were apparently in good market conditions. Their stuff up. Put the loss down to tuition and start saving hard again.

Australian people who in the most were stupid enough to buy half the catalogue of the Harvey Norman summer sale because they had new found equity in their homes without realising they need to pay it back again will struggle.
People who geared too heavily in real estate will struggle. The hard working couple who did the savings whilst their friends were buying ipods and mobile phones deserve to have a break from our government to help get into that house / unit or whatever. Money is still tight so if the banks don't see a saving history and just a lump sum from the government, I think they'll think twice for a year or two.

cheers,
 
MrBurns said:
Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
It's just lucky we have the room to move.

Savings income will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.

ASX down to early 3000's within 6 months.

Commodity boom bust and financial institutions problems means we have nothing to hold it up.

Property will collapse within 12 months perhaps less, commercial and residential will all go

Recovery ..well cant see that far ahead just yet.

And so I advise............
Click to expand...

On track................
 

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