Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

I predict

Well that's the thing, you either prop up these companies now with taxpayer money for them to survive into the future and keep people employed, or risk having all the people employed by this company, and the countless millions who are employed thanks to those companies and their debts that they owe losing their jobs. In other words, have millions unemployed collecting the dole or have them employed and making a living and eventually having them turn a profit and return to 'normal'.

I can see the reasoning behind that philosophy, of protecting the masses, but on the other hand there is also a perfectly valid "**** it, everybody needs to suffer the consequences of this" .. even if that does mean 20% unemployment, 5 years of depression and big names going bankrupt. All the large countries are doing now is drawing out a long period where recovery could be 10 years away, until all these bad debts, bad loans, bad companies, etc are slowly resolved and replaced with real profits, real efficiency, and real growth. That is the only way to clear the decks for further boom times ahead.

Why should GM continue making cars nobody can afford to buy, that aren't efficient, that aren't what consumers want? Why keep such an inefficiency running as a zombie, when it should have been slayed through the heart long ago?

Why keep broken megabanks with corrupt and greedy individuals afloat? those that overborrowed and over-lent, and if left to fester, so that in 10 years time they can continue to make the same mistakes and cause the next crisis. By bailing these guys out, we are by defacto supporting these very decisions that led to the crisis in the first place.

Even though that situation would be terrible for those concerned, eventually conditions do improve of their own volition, even in the 1930's eventually, yes they did improve. There eventually becomes a point where there is no worse where it can go, everybody who has gone bankrupt has done so, their debts are wiped and you have a 'fresh foundation' to build the whole damn system again. New companies are born, new ways of doing things, new concepts are created, things come along to replace the old ones. These are what create true, sustainable, boom times.

So while there might not be say a GM, who is to say another US car manufacturer could not eventually be created that produces super-efficient cars built on hydrogen fuel cells, electric technology, or others. If there is demand, it will be created by somebody out there, and eventually they take on more staff, they require new suppliers, the country comes out of recession through other such ventures and the cycle continues. If people still want American built cars, something will come along to meet that demand.

But now we're simply building on the foundation of a sewage plant, taking on massive debts that could take a decade or more to clear. And that burden is placed on the workers anyhow, who have to work harder, suffer lower wages, face higher costs and other problems often time. But instead of this being a short, swift period of pain, it's a long one for everybody concerned.

If we do want a state run system, and it seems many do with the "lets not let things fail" then lets give up the fascade of capitalism and lets go towards a centrally run system.. Half nationalised (only as last resort, not by choice!), and half privately run really is a half-baked system which in 5 years time people will be still scratching their heads over what to do about it all.
 
After watching the decline of the DOW last night and understanding the US is probably in the 2nd wash cycle of a washing machine (mine has 8 cycles), you have the rinses spin 1000 rpm, rinse, spin 1200 rpm and draining to go.

I predict on a guess looking at my washing machine the DOW will go as low as 4800. There is alot of dirt, and nasty micro-organisms with heavily inground stains in this lot!!! A proper full cycle at 80 degrees should be right and ready to hang on the line after, though I would personally put the load into the dryer to remove any remaining fluff.
 
Alan Kohler 15/3/2009

“I’ve got a prediction"
"Debt will be reduced. It will take a few years and while that’s happening there will be recession and rising unemployment because there is too much global capacity and the money which usually finances it’s employment will be hoarded.“

Before long, if not already, everyone will know someone who has become redundant. This can and will only confirm concerns of one’s own job security. You’re hardly going to go out and borrow to consume if it isn’t absolutely necessary! It’s time to pay back debt which of course will only mushroom the problems as everyone does it at the same time.
MR.
 
Given we now have the awesome KruddBank Pty Ltd to look after our finances and the imminent KRuddNet Pty Ltd to look after our communication needs, I predict the precedent for good governance has now been set and that over the next 3 years the following important innovations will occur -

- The gummint will create KRuddRail Pty Ltd. This is important since the current national and state rail systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $100Billion and will create 100,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create KruddAir Pty Ltd. This is important since the current national and state air transport systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $150Billion and will create 150,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create KruddRoads Pty Ltd. This is important since the current national and state road transport systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $400Billion and will create 200,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create KruddPorts Pty Ltd. This is important since the current national and state shipping ports systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $200Billion and will create 100,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create KruddPower Pty Ltd. This is important since the current national and state electricity provider systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $500Billion and will create 400,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create KruddWater Pty Ltd. This is important since the current national and state water systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $650Billion and will create 500,000 jobs.

- The gummint will create KruddCops Pty Ltd. This is important since the current national and state police systems are failing consumers. This innovation will only cost $1Trillion and will create 750,000 jobs.


There you have it. A Grande Total of 2,200,000 new jobs! And a mere snip at only $3Trillion!

We are home and hosed.

Done and dusted.

Thank you and,

Goodnight!

:D
 
I predict 12% unemployment within 12 months and look forward to major announcements from retailers, Harvey Norman , Powerhouse and others.
 
I predict 12% unemployment within 12 months and look forward to major announcements from retailers, Harvey Norman , Powerhouse and others.

Perhaps you could lie to us all and predict something a little on the positive and the Karma will follow!!!
 
These charts alone show that it wont be to hard to rise above 10% Unemployment offcourse that is those looking for work and that are Out of work..

bp1_bst4-13.gif

Not the offical rate of all those not working..
The other chart shows that the Number of hours each person is doing has been reducing heavily so an Unemployment of 10% is far worst now then it was back in the last two recessions..

bp1_bst4-11.gif

I'm of the opinion unemployment will decline until mid to late 2010..
however I hope for a recovery by mid June otherwise as Cash doesnt get yah much any more.. :(
<4.0% interest Not so good..
 
I predict Oz income tax rates for top earners to follow UK's suit in about 6 months time.

BRITAIN will increase its top rate of income tax to 50 per cent from next year.

Finance minister Alistair Darling announced the change in his annual Budget.

The top tax band had been due to rise to 45 per cent, from 40 per cent, in April 2011 as Britain seeks to claw back lost tax revenue caused by a deep recession.

But now the 50 per cent rate will apply in 2010 to any income above £150,000 ($309,405).

"In November, I announced a new rate of income tax of 45 per cent on incomes above £150,000 - the top one per cent of taxpayers," Mr Darling said in his budget speech.

"In order to help pay for additional support for people now, I have decided that the new rate will be 50 per cent and will come in from next April - a year earlier."

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25373502-5005961,00.html

A massive 10% hike from 40% to 50% for those earning over 150,000 $quid might see an even bigger sell-off of higher priced real estate in UK in response, as higher earners get squeeeeezed dry. Then I guess middle-income earners will get hit after that. Doesn't sound very *stimulating* for the UK economy, eh?

We will undoubtedly suffer the same fate of massive Gov't tax increases if China doesn't burst out of the gates soon....

*sigh*

:banghead:
 
Unfortunately Mr Rudd's handouts will have to be paid for by someone. The only way for the government to get money is to impose fees taxes and thge like, so I guess higher income tax is inevitable, maybe not only for the higher income bracket.
 
I predict....

Nothing short of a 50km diameter asteroid about to hit the planet *smack-bang* in the next 24 hours would make the Shock Market actually plummet. It has become totally de-sensitised to "bad" news. Bad news is now the new Good News!

Yeah. Nothing, but nothing - no news, no matter how bad - has stopped world gummint choreographed re-inflation of the stock bubble.

The Bad Times are over, folks.

Up, up & awaaaaayyyyy!

:D
 
I predict the Banks will need bailing out in the next few years because the First Home owners Bribe will have driven then to the brink and Turnbull will need to support both.
 
Unfortunately Mr Rudd's handouts will have to be paid for by someone. The only way for the government to get money is to impose fees taxes and thge like, so I guess higher income tax is inevitable, maybe not only for the higher income bracket.

Bunch of thieves. Squander taxpayer's money and then punish the taxpayers for it by demanding an even greater amount of tax. It's too bad we can only have the opportunity to sack them every few years, and even then the candidate is not much better, often worse, and that the mob votes about as intelligently as those who watch Big Brother. It's no way to run a business, let alone a country. Bunch of clowns.
 
I predict....

Nothing short of a 50km diameter asteroid about to hit the planet *smack-bang* in the next 24 hours would make the Shock Market actually plummet. It has become totally de-sensitised to "bad" news. Bad news is now the new Good News!

Yeah. Nothing, but nothing - no news, no matter how bad - has stopped world gummint choreographed re-inflation of the stock bubble.

The Bad Times are over, folks.

Up, up & awaaaaayyyyy!

:D

Does anyone else find it ironic that the doom & gloomers who have scared the crap out of everyone are now scratching their heads that the market is now going up on this "bad news".

Everyone was expecting/preparing for the worst but now we are a fair way into this mess most of this news isn't really new news or even unexpected news. The fact is for the moment it probably isn't as bad as everyone thought - shock horror life goes on, and for the moment things aren't really that bad especially here in Oz, and while it still may be a while off we can see a faint light at the end of the tunnel.
 
From Oct 08' not bad so far -

Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.

It's just lucky we have the room to move.

Savings income will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.

ASX down to early 3000's within 6 months.

Commodity boom bust and financial institutions problems means we have nothing to hold it up.

Property will collapse within 12 months perhaps less, commercial and residential will all go

Recovery ..well cant see that far ahead just yet.

And so I advise............
 
Who was that insightful individual to whom you refer Mr Burns? :D

I think nomore has a point, the meeja are trying to do their scaremonger bit, but most of their diatribe is not news to most people.
 
Has anyone outlined the teams for the next world war?

I think we might have:

Team Blue:

US, GB, Aus, NZ, Singa, Jap, Fiji, South K, Ireland, ?

Team Red:

China, ?????


Thoughts?
 
Has anyone outlined the teams for the next world war?

I think we might have:

Team Blue:

US, GB, Aus, NZ, Singa, Jap, Fiji, South K, Ireland, ?

Team Red:

China, ?????


Thoughts?

Include Queensland and Canberra in the Team Red.
 
I think we've had all the real bad news we're going to get................for now, at some stage though we will have to pay the price of excessive borrowing, dunno when.

I think the market will go sideways but edge up from here.
 
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