I predict

[Miner]

From Oct last year, not bad if i say so myself.

Brilliant work Mr Burns

Ironically first time I saw this thread and amazed how nicely you predicted back in Oct 08

Now please tell us your next series of predictions for next 12 months - seriously and the basic of your prediction (if possible)

Regards

 

[MR.]

what do you see from here on in? e.g. what will be the absolute low of the AORDS and Dow Jones and when etc?

Thanks

MS

Now please tell us your next series of predictions for next 12 months - seriously and the basic of your prediction (if possible)

Regards

Michael / Miner, care to have a stab!

 

[metric]

Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
It's just lucky we have the room to move.

Savings income will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.

ASX down to early 3000's within 6 months.

Commodity boom bust and financial institutions problems means we have nothing to hold it up.

Property will collapse within 12 months perhaps less, commercial and residential will all go

Recovery ..well cant see that far ahead just yet.

And so I advise............

well picked....if someone calls you an economist...'gangster slap' them!


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[metric]

I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.

another sage......

look at public works completion dates...2012-13 (and at historical completion dates of public works)


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[MrBurns]

AIG lost $61B USD this quarter alone. Now given another $30B on top of $150B it already has been "lent" by the US Govt.

This is ONE company, what does this now value AIG and countless others that make up the DOW ?

Thats why the market is now in freefall.

One word springs to mind, inflation and plenty of it and if the banks try to counter that by raising interest rates everyone will pull their head in and it's game over.

So we're snookered for now.

What this means on the ground is massive unemployment and social unrest.

Not being a doomsayer here, this is happening right now.

Whats ahead, we can only hope that for some reason things turn around but I cant think of a reason why.

What should happen now that we are in a real crisis is that the banks should start lending again, let the money flow, backed by the Govt perhaps but get the money out there so people can run businesses and perhaps even employ people.

Without that money supply starting to flow I think we will have depressive economic conditions sooner rather than later.

I predict that by August we will be in a deep recession or depression if you like OR if the money starts to flow and it has to be globally it will be cleaning up after the storm, great opportunities to get in on the ground.

The former scenerio could bring us closer to a war which is frightening stuff since my son just joined the reserves not long ago.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

AIG lost $61B USD this quarter alone. Now given another $30B on top of $150B it already has been "lent" by the US Govt.

This is ONE company, what does this now value AIG and countless others that make up the DOW ?

Thats why the market is now in freefall.

One word springs to mind, inflation and plenty of it and if the banks try to counter that by raising interest rates everyone will pull their head in and it's game over.

So we're snookered for now.

What this means on the ground is massive unemployment and social unrest.

Not being a doomsayer here, this is happening right now.

Whats ahead, we can only hope that for some reason things turn around but I cant think of a reason why.

What should happen now that we are in a real crisis is that the banks should start lending again, let the money flow, backed by the Govt perhaps but get the money out there so people can run businesses and perhaps even employ people.

Without that money supply starting to flow I think we will have depressive economic conditions sooner rather than later.

I predict that by August we will be in a deep recession or depression if you like OR if the money starts to flow and it has to be globally it will be cleaning up after the storm, great opportunities to get in on the ground.

i agree mr burns. the situation is gloomy. especially with the government stealing the money left for borrowing or as economists call it 'crowding out capitalists'.

i am very worried about the government response, its is totally wrong and will cause the world economy a great deal of pain and very likely a depression.

 

[MrBurns]

I also think there's something very nasty on the horizon for GMH here, I think there's a better then even chance they will cut their AU operation to the bone or shut it down temporarily to protect the US parent.

 

[MrBurns]

i am very worried about the government response, its is totally wrong and will cause the world economy a great deal of pain and very likely a depression.

I agree but I'm starting to understand that they dont have much choice, there will be a depression if they let all these companies go under anyway but this way they are at least seen as trying to save jobs.

Re GMH can you imagine the knock on effect if they closed or went into hibernation here ?

 

[Stormin_Norman]

governments have to be seen to be 'doing something' even if its the wrong thing.

 

[theasxgorilla]

I predicted next stop 700 on the SPY. It's been on my profile for months. No Gann, Elliott Wave, taro card reading...nothing but sausage-filled-gut instinct. It can fall to 5 tomorrow, but tonight it stopped at 700. Woo hoo, forum glory for me. Alright, that's was my 15, thanks for indulging me.

 

[metric]

Woo hoo, forum glory for me. Alright, that's was my 15, thanks for indulging me.

mmmmmm, sausage.......uuugghhhh....dribble.

perhaps it was the sage in sausage that helped with the vision?


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[MrBurns]

I predicted next stop 700 on the SPY. It's been on my profile for months. No Gann, Elliott Wave, taro card reading...nothing but sausage-filled-gut instinct. It can fall to 5 tomorrow, but tonight it stopped at 700. Woo hoo, forum glory for me. Alright, that's was my 15, thanks for indulging me.

Instinct works best I think, Greenspan should have tried it.

One bottle Johnny Walker, then go sit in a corner and cry for an hour and the resultant clarity is amazing.

 

[M34N]

What should happen now that we are in a real crisis is that the banks should start lending again, let the money flow, backed by the Govt perhaps but get the money out there so people can run businesses and perhaps even employ people.

Without that money supply starting to flow I think we will have depressive economic conditions sooner rather than later.

Maybe bank nationalization should happen soon then, these companies like AIG, Citi, etc are obviously failing so why not just bite the bullet and take them over now instead of continuously bailing them out and hoping they fix themselves? Wouldn't it just be cheaper in the long term to do this anyway and not have to pump billions into them every quarter until they eventually make a profit?

This is some scary stuff right now, I don't think any job out there is safe and anything could happen. I personally feel a fall in our housing market will happen soon too, if people keep losing their jobs like they are now here (and odds are they will) then eventually the shoe has to drop and people can't meet mortgage repayments. It happened everywhere else, just not here... property market here has been the 'final frontier' so to speak.

Good predictions MrBurns, I agree with what you're saying will happen soon, the next 6 months will be tougher and I don't see things getting any better soon either.

 

[MrBurns]

Maybe bank nationalization should happen soon then, these companies like AIG, Citi, etc are obviously failing so why not just bite the bullet and take them over now instead of continuously bailing them out and hoping they fix themselves? Wouldn't it just be cheaper in the long term to do this anyway and not have to pump billions into them every quarter until they eventually make a profit?

This is some scary stuff right now, I don't think any job out there is safe and anything could happen. I personally feel a fall in our housing market will happen soon too, if people keep losing their jobs like they are now here (and odds are they will) then eventually the shoe has to drop and people can't meet mortgage repayments. It happened everywhere else, just not here... property market here has been the 'final frontier' so to speak.

Good predictions MrBurns, I agree with what you're saying will happen soon, the next 6 months will be tougher and I don't see things getting any better soon either.

I think you're right and the nationalisation of some banks will happen and probably very soon, there's even talk of nationalising GM.

Easy to buy a house how, low interest , double FHB grant.

The thing they havent considered is how much it will be worth in 2 years, if they have to sell they'll go out the door backwards.

But I believe Rudd's quite comfortable with that

What a different world we are transforming into and before our very eyes.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

so nationalisation will solves the inefficiencies which caused the 'problem', leading to the current 'solution'?

i doubt it. let them fail. its how capitalism works.

 

[M34N]

so nationalisation will solves the inefficiencies which caused the 'problem', leading to the current 'solution'?

i doubt it. let them fail. its how capitalism works.

Can't. Mass job losses at those companies, mass defaults in debts owed to other companies (more than now, if that is possible!), the flow on effects from these companies going bust will lead to mass amounts of people becoming homeless and lead to mass unrest. You can't let these companies fail, it is true that they are too big. They have massive commitments across the world, they hold a lot of the global economy together and sadly capitalism has failed (in this respect).

Nationalization will most likely happen because it HAS to happen. How long can government's continue to print money to give to these obviously 'zombie' corporations to survive when they are obviously incurring massive losses?

If some of these massive companies go bust, the financial system will collapse and the whole world could face a problem greater than the last depression. There simply is no choice.

 

[prawn_86]

M34N,

That is what needs to happen for the mistakes of the past to be learnt. Capitalism hasn't failed, merely the management of it has. Profits have been privatised while losses are socialised. For it to work properly you need a true free market, even if it means millions of unemployed. That will ensure in the future the business' are sustainable

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Can't. Mass job losses at those companies, mass defaults in debts owed to other companies (more than now, if that is possible!), the flow on effects from these companies going bust will lead to mass amounts of people becoming homeless and lead to mass unrest. You can't let these companies fail, it is true that they are too big. They have massive commitments across the world, they hold a lot of the global economy together and sadly capitalism has failed (in this respect).

Nationalization will most likely happen because it HAS to happen. How long can government's continue to print money to give to these obviously 'zombie' corporations to survive when they are obviously incurring massive losses?

If some of these massive companies go bust, the financial system will collapse and the whole world could face a problem greater than the last depression. There simply is no choice.

nationalisation is putting the mistakes of these companies onto the public purse.

while it is easy to see the jobs 'saved' or 'created' by the government in times such as these, what is not seen is the jobs 'destroyed' or 'not created' because government borrowing is taken at the expense of more efficient private organisations.

no matter the owner inefficient producers cannot operate and bad loans must be written off. nationalisation to prevent these things from happening does not solve the problem and will only mire the economy in a depressive state for a much longer period.

 

[MrBurns]

Yes they really cant let them fail, but they cant really save them either however they can make the fall a little softer and yes wholesale nationalization is just around the corner.

Cant help feeling as if we're on the precipice of something rather nasty.

(hope that doesn't turn out to be the understatement of the year)

 

[MrBurns]

Looks like we're going under 3000, all that stuff we said might happen is actually happening.