From Oct last year, not bad if i say so myself.
what do you see from here on in? e.g. what will be the absolute low of the AORDS and Dow Jones and when etc?
Thanks
MS
Now please tell us your next series of predictions for next 12 months - seriously and the basic of your prediction (if possible)
Regards
Interest rates will fall to 3% perhaps 2% by June next year.
It's just lucky we have the room to move.
Savings income will suffer but perhaps the capital will be safer.
ASX down to early 3000's within 6 months.
Commodity boom bust and financial institutions problems means we have nothing to hold it up.
Property will collapse within 12 months perhaps less, commercial and residential will all go
Recovery ..well cant see that far ahead just yet.
And so I advise............
I predict that if this all goes worse case the world will be at war not too long after.
AIG lost $61B USD this quarter alone. Now given another $30B on top of $150B it already has been "lent" by the US Govt.
This is ONE company, what does this now value AIG and countless others that make up the DOW ?
Thats why the market is now in freefall.
One word springs to mind, inflation and plenty of it and if the banks try to counter that by raising interest rates everyone will pull their head in and it's game over.
So we're snookered for now.
What this means on the ground is massive unemployment and social unrest.
Not being a doomsayer here, this is happening right now.
Whats ahead, we can only hope that for some reason things turn around but I cant think of a reason why.
What should happen now that we are in a real crisis is that the banks should start lending again, let the money flow, backed by the Govt perhaps but get the money out there so people can run businesses and perhaps even employ people.
Without that money supply starting to flow I think we will have depressive economic conditions sooner rather than later.
I predict that by August we will be in a deep recession or depression if you like OR if the money starts to flow and it has to be globally it will be cleaning up after the storm, great opportunities to get in on the ground.
i am very worried about the government response, its is totally wrong and will cause the world economy a great deal of pain and very likely a depression.
Woo hoo, forum glory for me. Alright, that's was my 15, thanks for indulging me.
I predicted next stop 700 on the SPY. It's been on my profile for months. No Gann, Elliott Wave, taro card reading...nothing but sausage-filled-gut instinct. It can fall to 5 tomorrow, but tonight it stopped at 700. Woo hoo, forum glory for me. Alright, that's was my 15, thanks for indulging me.
What should happen now that we are in a real crisis is that the banks should start lending again, let the money flow, backed by the Govt perhaps but get the money out there so people can run businesses and perhaps even employ people.
Without that money supply starting to flow I think we will have depressive economic conditions sooner rather than later.
Maybe bank nationalization should happen soon then, these companies like AIG, Citi, etc are obviously failing so why not just bite the bullet and take them over now instead of continuously bailing them out and hoping they fix themselves? Wouldn't it just be cheaper in the long term to do this anyway and not have to pump billions into them every quarter until they eventually make a profit?
This is some scary stuff right now, I don't think any job out there is safe and anything could happen. I personally feel a fall in our housing market will happen soon too, if people keep losing their jobs like they are now here (and odds are they will) then eventually the shoe has to drop and people can't meet mortgage repayments. It happened everywhere else, just not here... property market here has been the 'final frontier' so to speak.
Good predictions MrBurns, I agree with what you're saying will happen soon, the next 6 months will be tougher and I don't see things getting any better soon either.
so nationalisation will solves the inefficiencies which caused the 'problem', leading to the current 'solution'?
i doubt it. let them fail. its how capitalism works.
Can't. Mass job losses at those companies, mass defaults in debts owed to other companies (more than now, if that is possible!), the flow on effects from these companies going bust will lead to mass amounts of people becoming homeless and lead to mass unrest. You can't let these companies fail, it is true that they are too big. They have massive commitments across the world, they hold a lot of the global economy together and sadly capitalism has failed (in this respect).
Nationalization will most likely happen because it HAS to happen. How long can government's continue to print money to give to these obviously 'zombie' corporations to survive when they are obviously incurring massive losses?
If some of these massive companies go bust, the financial system will collapse and the whole world could face a problem greater than the last depression. There simply is no choice.
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