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HVN - Harvey Norman Holdings

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A decent start, only about 10 years late! No doubt they are hoping their name helps them win business. There are guys out there whose online offering includes next day free delivery and a phone number. For some reason HVN offers neither. Still I guess you need to crawl before you can walk. HVN really need a phone number on their website, not a find your local store and call them but a dedicated online call centre.
 
TA of HVN - 05-12-2011
====================
HVN had a good support at around $2.00 and today reached the valid (Red) resistance line and could not passed up $2.20.




If HVN could manage to pass up this resistance line, it could reach the next important(blue) resistance line (around $2.80- depends when reach this line)

 
If we go back to the matching Low of February 2009, and assume $1.80 proves to be holding support, there should indeed be massive upside - but we need patience, Iago
If I take the recent 2 months as a flag pattern, a breakout would make $2.60, $2.80, and $3.05 - 3.10 quite likely, even short-term, say in a month or so.



The question is: Will Gerry try to fight the online shops (I don't like his chances) or can he join them and beat them at their own game? (stop whingeing, Gerry; just do it! At 72, you're not too old to learn a new trick )
 
poverty said:
GO HARVEY! GO HARVEY! I'd rather eat glass than buy from a place with such condescending, pointless and annoying advertising. I hope he goes broke (like the shareholders already have).
Click to expand...

Dont let your personal emotion cloud your judgement when a good business go on sale for Cheap.

I heard on the grapevines
Most people hates banks, they rack in decent return for their shareholders

Most people hates Telstra and it is one of the most profitable Telco on the planet

Most people doesn't like Gerry yet they spend billions at his shop each year and to his advantage he hold a massive properties portfolio.

Most people think Dominos is **** pizza yet they grow double digit each year

You can hope Gerry goes broke but I think many more people goes broke before Gerry.

I went and bought something from Uncle Gerry over the weekend for $1400 most other retailer cant do it so if I was you I would not buy from Gerry and pay higher price at other retailer..Smart money move
 
I'm getting a little tired of analysts saying HVN is trading at it's property value.

If the retail landscape has indeed changed as much as is being implied by the 'internet retail revolution' then retail property is worth probably half as much as it used to be.

The kind of property HVN has is kind of nasty looking warehouse spots with no lifestyle appeal as far as I can see. Certainly not boutique shopping strips which are more likely to survive and maintain coffee drinkers and eateries etc.

Hence HVN is not trading at property value!

If there has been a cultural shift to internet shopping and it's not all about confidence and interest rates, then HVN's property is overvalued and so is HVN.

Gullible less educated people may have also wised up to the slimy hyped up credit rip off adds promising no cost for years, whilst they actually end up paying twice as much for an ugly sofa than they could have if they paid for it upfront!

Karma Jerry - intentionally deceiving people - it's coming back on you!!
 
notting said:
Hence HVN is not trading at property value!
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I agree. HVN's retail property value are directly related to HVN's retail business value, which is falling rapidly.

Don't forget that HVN trading at property value means either the retail business is valued at zero (which it isn't as it still makes a profit) or the market doesn't believe in the property value. Granted many retail REITs trade at 10-15% discount to NTA anyway.

And last time Gerry bought his own stock at $3.90 in Mar 08, it didn't bottom until ~ 1 year later at $1.90... did Gerry jump too early again this time?
 
Maybe there's a chance that HVN will spin it's property out into a trust. It would be nice and would unlock a fair bit of value.
 
skc said:
And last time Gerry bought his own stock at $3.90 in Mar 08, it didn't bottom until ~ 1 year later at $1.90... did Gerry jump too early again this time?
Click to expand...

He baught some more recently a month or two ago, it wasn't a massive amount.
Spinning off the property into a REIT would be a good idea. I wouldn't be buying the REIT however!!!
 
notting said:
He baught some more recently a month or two ago, it wasn't a massive amount.
Spinning off the property into a REIT would be a good idea. I wouldn't be buying the REIT however!!!
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Me neither!

I can't see that the market would be enthusiastic about a REIT whose only asset was HVN stores.

 
Welcome to the world before colour televisions...

The guy is so out of date it's not funny.



http://www.smh.com.au/business/web-hardly-working-for-harvey-norman-20120302-1u7ka.html
 
I have a thesis about HVN that I'm still formulating. Amazon is set to open here in the near future. Retailers are rightly nervous because there's no way they will be able to compete on price with Amazon. And yet the kinds of products Amazon sells are more integral to JBH's business than to HVN's. HVN is largely a furniture and home furnishings business. It's my view that "e-tail" is unlikely to make much of an inroad as to how these products are bought. I'd be really interested to know what percentage of HVN's net profit is attributable to sales of consumer electronics because I reckon it's going to lose that business sooner or later. Does anyone know?
 

I don't, but it's enough to make Gerry Harvey nervous.
 
I'm currently undertaking a postgraduate course in entrepreneurship and innovation. Just started a new subject last Friday on marketing which is being taught by a marketer with an economics background (interesting combination, IMO). He made the passing comment that he thought that HVN has a 50/50 chance of surviving the next five years, because he considers that the current HVN business model is broken.
 
Good old Gerry at his rational best again.


May be your online sales would be higher if you are more competitive?
 
Without bothering to look at it in any detail, would it be fair to assume that this has always had a lowish payout ratio because there is a fair bit of maintenance capex that they need the cash for? I don't see any other use for the "retained earnings" since they aren't exactly expanding.
 

Properties development, they will complete later this year and open
Before Xmas, large Hvn centre house other tenants as well.

Similar to properties woolies use to house their supermarket but
They have other tenants in there as well.

Hvn do stuff slow and steady but busy all the time
Acquiring land then develop then open Hvn stores
And house other tenants
 
Thanks - that makes sense. Land and buildings aren't cheap when you first buy them.
 
skc said:
Good old Gerry at his rational best again.



May be your online sales would be higher if you are more competitive?
Click to expand...

It's amazing that a smart guy like Harvey just doesn't get the internet. He's launched a cr@ppy website and is only generating $50k/day in sales but that is because the internet doesn't work, not because his website is rubbish and his prices are too high.

It's amazing that they still have no contact phone number on their website. ffs, even some one man band operating out of a bedroom still manages to list a phone number, yet a multibillion dollar company can't. It just shows the sort of attitude they are taking to the internet.
 
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