Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

HVN - Harvey Norman Holdings

Fund manager Sid Choraria, who came first in a competition aimed at identifying the world's most-overpriced stocks, believes Harvey Norman shares are "priced for perfection" and will fall 35 per cent to 40 per cent over the next 18 months to two years.
Mr Choraria accused Harvey Norman of "robbing Peter to pay Paul" by paying underperforming franchisees more than $400 million in tactical support over the last four years while simultaneously jacking up rents to support its property values.
The fund manager also questioned the sustainability of Harvey Norman's franchise structure, pointing out that franchisees paid little upfront capital and received a salary and a car – making them more akin to employees than franchisees.
Mr Choraria, who works for Singapore-based funds management firm APS Asset Management, also raised concerns about Harvey Norman's debt levels, its poor financial disclosure and losses in its international operations, particularly Ireland, which has lost money in eight of the past nine years.
"At $3.70, Harvey Norman seems to be priced for perfection at 48 times free cash flow, unlikely to be sustainable over the long term, given slowing growth and severe competition," said his report, which came first place in a competition run by New York-based SumZero.

Mr Harvey defended Harvey Norman's franchise structure, saying it had been in place for 30 years, had been key to the company's growth and there was no reason to change.
"Because he sees it nowhere else he says it must be wrong," he said

Being T'd up nicely today.
Time to get out big Bertha and smack it into the lake.
 
If I knew how, I would short this company.

If you don't know how, then perhaps it's best you don't! :cool:

What don't you like about HVN Jank?



The spike yesterday, driven by the ML upgrade did make a trade to the short side look pretty tantalising....
 
Jerry was interviewed today. They asked him about the possibility of a tie up with MYR. He said, "Coles was the jewel in the crown. WES got that. Why would we want to do that? It doesn't make any sense at all."
After talking about all the improvements in the HVN what exactly makes MYR untenable which sells a lot of the same stuff, pretty much apart from beauty stuff and cloths which is one of it's best performers!
So his disdain for such an idea is just disdain for his own business. :cool:
 
Continuing the discussion from tech/a's thread, where Kryzz provided this:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31431&p=923301&viewfull=1#post923301
it should be pointed out that HVN went ex 17cFF yesterday. That temporarily increased the 20c range of those previous days. Today, trading against the tumbling XJO, it's pleasing to see HVN trading almost as if no ex-div had occurred.

Let's see if the chart can stay above $5, which is not only some psychological hurdle, but also the brim of a one-year saucer/ cup'n'handle pattern.
As a predominantly short-term trader, I am not currently on HVN; but it is on my watchlist, and a breakout could certainly create some short-term opportunities as well.
 
Ahh
That explains the mini Black swan!

Thanks
P.

Although I live next to them here in Perth, and having drunk my share of the "Black Duck", I had to look up the chart pattern with the same name.
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...EmpQKHSPQAFQQsAQIHA&biw=1258&bih=1045&dpr=0.9

Some of the pictures shown look more like origami, but now I get your drift.
I wasn't really worried about yesterday's candle because I do follow dividend data as a matter of cause. The first half hour or so was dominated by strippers and amateurs that followed the common pattern on ex-div day. It took some time for them to notice the buying interest, giving professionals and instos an opportunity to add stock at low prices. Big Money buying suggests to me that a bullish trend is more likely than a bearish one, once the US-election jitters are behind us.

HVN i1min 01-11-16.png
 
HVN TopBuyers Oct 2016.png

Above table shows the top buying brokers throughout October before ex-div.
I can run this report at the end of this week again for the period ex-div (data available with 3 days' delay)
 
I beg your pardon?

Jerry Harvey - "It's all been started by a short seller - he's the enemy," an irate Harvey told shareholders. "He's out there and he's trying to disrupt our company - people don't do this unless they have a really good reason.

"It's common practice for short sellers to go out and try to demolish the company they've sold the shares in because it reduces the price of the shares and they buy them back and make some money, so they have a very strong motive.

"In this case it represents a short seller, it represents some of his cohorts in places like Europe, Asia and the Americas. We've had contact with these people, this is pretty serious stuff," he said.

"I think short sellers should be banned - when someone sells your shares (short) they have a huge incentive to go out there and demolish the price.

"If they are here – I suspect they're not here and have sent their stooges – you are the enemy, you are out there trying to do as much damage to our company as you possibly can, you are not a friend of this board or the shareholders here. If you are here please get up and piss off."

Pretty rich coming from a prick who sells massively marked up products to people who can't afford them.
Whilst coning them with promises of no interest and all that crap for 2 years and then the suckers end up paying double or more the already massively inflated prices over time or there abouts.
Nothing like a billionaire taking advantage of the ignorant and the poor, who are not able to buy something outright in full.

Couldn't happen to a nicer person. Bring on Kogan. Go f(#$ yourself Jerry. :321::D
 
I beg your pardon?



Pretty rich coming from a prick who sells massively marked up products to people who can't afford them.
Whilst coning them with promises of no interest and all that crap for 2 years and then the suckers end up paying double or more the already massively inflated prices over time or there abouts.
Nothing like a billionaire taking advantage of the ignorant and the poor, who are not able to buy something outright in full.

Couldn't happen to a nicer person. Bring on Kogan. Go f(#$ yourself Jerry. :321::D

The guys arrogance is amazing, couldn't believe l heard him on the radio in a Hardly Normal ad thanking the government for the small business grant. His head is up his own behind so far he can see the back of his teeth.
 
Harvey Norman said the preliminary pre-tax net property revaluation increment for investment properties in Australia would be more than $70 million for the six months ending December, compared with $20.6 million in the same period a year ago, and would be recognised as income.

I see. Can't wait for the commercial property slump. See if he counts it in there.
 
Jerry's at it again.
He has appeared on numerous TV spots and newspapers talking of how big bad Amazon is devouring the retail world and is coming to Australia. Mean while HVN shares have been pounded by shorters like yours truly and done quite well.
Today the fin review which is wrong thing to be reading if you ever want to make money is reporting that ASIC is investigating Harvey Norman Accounting practices. HVN denied this is the case.
And Oh look, Jerry just happens to have snapped up $4,356,700.00 worth or HVN Just before it's about to pay out it's fully franked dividend and he has been ramping it down with words all over the media. Time to take profits on the short and go long and get some of that too. Here at 4.29 paying over 7%.
Amazon hasn't even started building it's warehouses in Australia and is already active in our markets whilst HVN has been doing surprisingly well with it's mean model.
Got to hand it to Jerry's promotional abilities in both directions!
 
Jerry snapped up another
$8,869,000.00 at the end of March, which was not great timing but still relatively cheap.
He did this at the back end of what was like a road tour of trashing his own business in the media against the monster of Amazon.
Now perhaps that negative sentiment that really set the cat amidst the pigeons in the retail sector has come to an end.
Looks like JBH and HVN may get a bit more of a kick along.
Maybe Jerry wants to take HVN private and cash in on the property values, that would be tricky but not out of the question.
The interesting thing is that if he was happy to buy it at 4.40 whilst trashing it in the face of Amazon then we should be happy at 4.00 ish, you'd think!?
 
There is a little truth in the disruptor, perhaps.
Though I suspect it's more a general shift to buying online in geneal from all kinds of places, not just Amazon.

amazon vs retail.JPG
 
Gerry is an advocate for a big Australia, I wonder why, to increase his revenue.

I wonder if the short seller is allowed/permitted to promote a smaller Australia.

And with 350K of people entering Australia, Gerry natural gets a 1.4% uplift in sales, just by the extra people.

As for him not worried about Amazon, bull****. He is tiny compared to them and they have the technology.
They don't need to be ship bedding or white goods to effect his sales.
He probably thought Kogan would effect his business either.

The problem with his business model and online sales is how does he have a strong online business which essential takes sales away from his secondary business - franchisors, first business being property.
 
Agree that Gerry is a player.

I'm tempted though to put a few $ in to HVN., just on the charts.

I'll look for a break above $4 before the ex-div.

gg
 
Agree that Gerry is a player.

I'm tempted though to put a few $ in to HVN., just on the charts.

I'll look for a break above $4 before the ex-div.

gg

It had a positive day on Friday, whilst the rest of the market was quite negative. HVN has had a negative run so that got my interest as a possible turn toward it's div.

Just remember this however -

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has confirmed to the ABC it is probing the accounts of listed retailer Harvey Norman — though the company's chairman and founder is still steadfastly refusing to accept that it is under investigation over the way it accounts for its exposure to failed franchises and troubled franchise loans.

"There is no investigation," billionaire founder Gerry Harvey said today.

Shares in the listed retailer suffered a huge slump after reports in Fairfax media about a maze of "zombie trusts" and failed franchises in the Harvey Norman retailing group.
 
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