How would you manage this trade?

[skc]

I entered this stock on the break of recent resistance of $1.2 (green up arrow) and have my inital stop at just below $1. The stock has moved up nicely since and I am thinking of moving my stop to the 6 day low, which is ~$1.3.

From a EW perspective, it seems wave 3 or C is underway, which has a target of at least $1.8. However, if the current leg is wave 3, it is possible that wave 3-i has just completed, and wave 3-ii could retrace into the Fib levels which will retest the breakout support at $1.2. This is lower than my current stop.

The options I see are:

A. Put stop at $1.3. If it is hit, too bad, and re-enter at $1.2 if it gets down there.

B. Place stop at $1.1 instead, which is below the typical retracement zone and the support line.

C. Other

How would you manage this trade?

 

[johnnyg]

I think that the recent high could be classed as a wave iii of a larger degree W3 or C. Expect a small consolidation perhaps in a triangle to form wave iv before one push higher into wave v. Could be a good place to pyramid into the trade if a good consolidation pattern takes shape.

Id have my stop @ just below $1.20 as we know if price breaks down threw the top of Wave 1 or A then youd have a more complex correction taking place instead of an impulse higher. (Which I favour)

 

[nunthewiser]

i have no idea on your timeframes , strategys or many other criterias BUT if this was my trade i would be lockin in my profits around the 1.38-1.35 area and looking to re-nter at either a retest of the 1.20 area or the 1.50 area

only my thoughts if it was MY trade

your trade your call

edit .not picking on your trade strategys as i have no idea onyour position sizing , comfortable losses etc .BUT geeze m8 thats one huge initial stoploss range on entry IF entered at 1.20 and stop at below a buck !

 

[johnnyg]

not picking on your trade strategys as i have no idea onyour position sizing , comfortable losses etc .BUT geeze m8 thats one huge initial stoploss range on entry IF entered at 1.20 and stop at below a buck !

I dont find it all that bad. 20c risk for a possible reward of 60c. 1:3

 

[nunthewiser]

I dont find it all that bad. 20c risk for a possible reward of 60c. 1:3

im looking at the % loss .... different strokes for different folks

my initial stop on this trade would have been around the 1.15 area as at that point the break would have been confirmed failed to me

like i said different strokes for different folks .i have no idea on his strategy for this trade

 

[skc]

i have no idea on your timeframes , strategys or many other criterias BUT if this was my trade i would be lockin in my profits around the 1.38-1.35 area and looking to re-nter at either a retest of the 1.20 area or the 1.50 area

only my thoughts if it was MY trade

your trade your call

edit .not picking on your trade strategys as i have no idea onyour position sizing , comfortable losses etc .BUT geeze m8 thats one huge initial stoploss range on entry IF entered at 1.20 and stop at below a buck !

Thanks Nun. Agree the stop is quite wide, but the risk (20c) and reward (60c+) stacked up. Probably could have put the stop in under $1.1 but back then the market was in a limbo mode and I didn't want noise to take the stop out. The trade is the standard ~1% risk so it's not a big position at all.

Timeframe? No time frame. It's just reaching target or stop being hit, however long that takes.

Edit: Johnnyg - thanks and same thoughts. It does make the total position size particular small due to the wide stop.

 

[nunthewiser]

only speaking for myself IF it was my trade

does not make my thoughts anymore correct than anyone elses

cheers

 

[explod]

For the first three months of the year there was a sideway movement on low volume but it was supported well at around 1.20 They were burnt off with the considerable drop in March. Some of those players that held will be looking to square the books (get thier money back) so, what was support at the start of the year may well play out as resistance for some time at the current level.

Better trades elsewhere.

 

[beamstas]

6 day low

You can always re-enter......

 

[Frank D]

WDS Monthly

My take on this stock...

The most important trend guide on WDS is now $1.42.

This is the Yearly 50% level and whilst price remains above this level the
bias is to continue towards $2.40-$2.56

So far you have June high resistance around 1.62-71.

Basically you would want to see the next few weeks remain above 1.42
and continue higher in the 3rd Quarter.

If you want to get back into the trend, then you would want to see a
swift down this month into 1.23-33, and hope it bounces back above 1.42
by July.

If price is below 1.42 in the 3rd Quarter, i'd limit trading longs on this stock.

 

[explod]

For the first three months of the year there was a sideway movement on low volume but it was supported well at around 1.20 They were burnt off with the considerable drop in March. Some of those players that held will be looking to square the books (get thier money back) so, what was support at the start of the year may well play out as resistance for some time at the current level.

Better trades elsewhere.

Please ignore my crap, I fed the wrong letters into my charts. WDS actually looks pretty good and well done getting in at 1.2

My only offer is that I sell the next day if I have a close down 5% on a day.

If it breaks 2.00 then 3 could be a target. Their business is hot, pipes etc to mining industry and coal seems popular with current Govt' policy.

 

[skc]

6 day low

You can always re-enter......

I like simple solutions. That's pretty much where I got $1.3 under option A.

WDS Monthly

My take on this stock...

The most important trend guide on WDS is now $1.42.

This is the Yearly 50% level and whilst price remains above this level the
bias is to continue towards $2.40-$2.56

So far you have June high resistance around 1.62-71.

Basically you would want to see the next few weeks remain above 1.42
and continue higher in the 3rd Quarter.

If you want to get back into the trend, then you would want to see a
swift down this month into 1.23-33, and hope it bounces back above 1.42
by July.

If price is below 1.42 in the 3rd Quarter, i'd limit trading longs on this stock.

Thanks Frank. Insightful as always. The $1.42 trend guide level marries reasonably well with the 6 day low (~$1.33).

Please ignore my crap, I fed the wrong letters into my charts. WDS actually looks pretty good and well done getting in at 1.2

My only offer is that I sell the next day if I have a close down 5% on a day.

If it breaks 2.00 then 3 could be a target. Their business is hot, pipes etc to mining industry and coal seems popular with current Govt' policy.

LOL. Happens to the best of us. Not sure about selling the next day with a -5% close in the current environment.

 

[clayton4115]

looking very bearish to me, i'd be shorting it!

 

[beamstas]

looking very bearish to me, i'd be shorting it!

How'd you come to this conclusion?

Unless you shorted on a break of yesterdays low ($1.50) i can't see much R:R for this one.

IMHO we will terminate the down move between $1.36 and $1.30, if we break $1.30 on the downside $1.20 will be a tough one to get through.

Some random scribble you may or may not agree with

 

[clayton4115]

well if i was intending to get in long on this one, i would wait till it hits support, which is around the $1.20 mark and look at entering there, $1.60 looks resistance to me!

 

[beamstas]

well if i was intending to get in long on this one, i would wait till it hits support, which is around the $1.20 mark and look at entering there, $1.60 looks resistance to me!

 

[beerwm]

looking very bearish to me, i'd be shorting it!

what timeframe were u looking at clayton?

/

I certainly think WDS is bullish, in brad's pic; the amibroker layering is abit deceptive too, as it has out performed the xao/xjo by quite a bit.

I personally would put a trailing stop on it, 0.25c or about.
1.36 seems like a nice level too [in brads pic].
-saying that, i wouldnt have a 1.80 TP.

The only really support I see is at 1.20, and thats giving to much back IMO.


but ofcourse its all about your timeframe and style.

you could always increase the stop size - and sell off some of your position to limit your risk.

good luck.

 

[skc]

well if i was intending to get in long on this one, i would wait till it hits support, which is around the $1.20 mark and look at entering there, $1.60 looks resistance to me!

If you are not in the trade then wait for a retest of $1.2 support is indeed the right way to go. But given that I am in the trade, clearly I wouldn't exit just because it might retrace there. I don't believe $1.6 will be much of a resistance, but $1.8 certainly will be. This goes back a long way.

If the overall market holds up then we should get to $1.8 without too much trouble imo.

For anyone who's interested I am keeping my SL at $1.3.

 

[clayton4115]

well my analysis is only talking about 1 -2 day time frames

 

[beamstas]

well my analysis is only talking about 1 -2 day time frames

What analysis?
Can you please show me where you posted this "analysis", i'd love to see it