You always resort to this sort of crap when challanged - you asume so much but know so little.
How to trade the Unholy Grails system?
- Thread starter Elfanger
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You always resort to this sort of crap when challanged - you asume so much but know so little.
Trembling Hand
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It did run live on Nicks forum from start to end.
tech/a
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Hah ha ha Transparency.
Spend the weekend reading the 55 Threads and 2261 Posts
On Techtrader on "The Chartist"
Show me that level of transarency here!!
Click to expand
Read to EXPAND EVEN MORE
I know that and I'm not disputing there was probably good things to come from the whole exercise.
But given the potential leverage and the market backdrop – I suspect it was a fairly ordinary return when calculated and expressed in a realistic and comparable way.
Trembling Hand
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Fair comment. Still ya gotta give credit for having the guts to document it. NO ONE ELSE here has. In spite of all the jaw boning that goes on.
It would be interesting to see the return calculated and expressed in a comparable way. It would also be useful if it included how many manhours were spent to obtain these returns. Trading and leverage vs index tracker and beach
Cheers
Dudes you don't pay off anything. For every dollar in your account they will alow you to hold a position to the value of $3.
You don't pay back anything. You never get any extra money in your account. We are not talking risk adjusted returns. We are just talking about starting capital of $30,000 to ending capital of $ 360,000. (maybe $330,000??)
I don't understand the confusion. Its a pretty simple calculation isn't it?
TH - I'm fairly sure Tech said that the portfolio was managed through a margin loan? If i'm correct then at some stage he would need to repay the loan at some stage to finalise the account..
I understand that Tech has based his figures on a return based upon his initial $30k but not everyone is comfortable using leverage to trade - even with a methodology which is proven to work. I like the strategy and have subscribed to the chartist as I am not currently in a position to spend hours (or years) learning how to create my own strategy..
Fair comment. Still ya gotta give credit for having the guts to document it. NO ONE ELSE here has. In spite of all the jaw boning that goes on.
I’ll happily give credit and lots of it for that – but I also expect accountability to sum up the outcomes realistically and clearly.
Fair comment. Still ya gotta give credit for having the guts to document it. NO ONE ELSE here has. In spite of all the jaw boning that goes on.
Returns do matter, the whole point of investing/trading is to achieve excess returns. Everybody who visits ASF is trying to achieve excess returns (and protect principal). My bullsh!t detector starts ringing when I see anybody claiming a CAGR>15% over timeframe of 5 years or more.
tech/a
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You ----Still don't get it people.
Your given leverage and pay interest on it --WHEN YOU USE IT.
We didn't always use it. Was minor in the overall scope of things.
anyway----
CanOz
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Margin loans just allow you to either take larger positions than your account size, or more positions than your account size. Generally the accepted way is to take more positions while having the same risk on each trade. Portfolio heat becomes the risk.
Leverage and compounding are all part of a successful strategy. I don't see what the problem in understanding this is.
In laymens terms...
I have a margin account with IB, I don't have to pay the loan back, as I trade it just gives me more buying power. As the positions grow the buying power become less until I'm fully leveraged. As the positions shrink the buying power becomes more....simple.
CanOz
Leverage and compounding are all part of a successful strategy. I don't see what the problem in understanding this is.
In laymens terms...
I have a margin account with IB, I don't have to pay the loan back, as I trade it just gives me more buying power. As the positions grow the buying power become less until I'm fully leveraged. As the positions shrink the buying power becomes more....simple.
CanOz
tech/a
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Its all documented and has been for
over 10 yrs---been published and tested in around 15 languages
by countless 1000s on who knows how many bourses.
OK so I start with $30K
7 years later I have $387K
How would YOU express my return on investment---?
Im not claiming ----- it is ACTUAL--its there live to verify---
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I think the issue is that some people see a margin loan as a setup where a bank gives you $x and you pay interest on that money and it sits on your balance sheet until you eventually repay the lump sum, rather than seeing it as a revolving line of credit.
The use of leverage allowed a much larger return on equity even with an average return on capital. I think that is the only point craft et al are making.
The equity curve as documented for Tech Trader runs from 90 to 360 a CAGR of 21.9% or 400% over 7 years.
You claim a return of 30 to 360 (or 387 for your self) which is a CAGR of 42.6% or as you express it 1200% over 7.
Very slowly so an idiot like me can understand – reconcile these two returns and I will leave you in peace.
Trembling Hand
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Why have you started it @ 90 capital was 30?
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Yeh that's what I was thinking too.
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I think this is being made to be a lot more complicated than it needs to be. Money in pocket at start = $30k, money in pocket at end = $360k. Ignore the effects of margin and leverage, your starting capital is still the same, the leverage just allows you to take more positions with your starting capital than you would with no leverage.
Look at the equity curve at post 28.
If he blew up does he lose 30k or 90k?
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This is a very interesting discussion.
Trading on margin is a good way of maximising profits but what people forget is that it also multiplies drawdowns. While developing a mechanical trading system and deciding to use leverage for actual trading, the DD is a major factor. Techtrader was traded live and the results are there for all to see is a great illustration that Trend Following and Mechanical trading works. However, talking about >1000% returns etc is misleading.
What one has to take away about the merits of the system is the fact that it took 90k to whatever ending equity it did. Margin should not be a part of the performance metric of the system.
Cheers
Trading on margin is a good way of maximising profits but what people forget is that it also multiplies drawdowns. While developing a mechanical trading system and deciding to use leverage for actual trading, the DD is a major factor. Techtrader was traded live and the results are there for all to see is a great illustration that Trend Following and Mechanical trading works. However, talking about >1000% returns etc is misleading.
What one has to take away about the merits of the system is the fact that it took 90k to whatever ending equity it did. Margin should not be a part of the performance metric of the system.
Cheers
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