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Tech/a which one if I may ask? I am building my own AB "system" and would be keen to compare...
Cheers
How to trade the Unholy Grails system?
- Thread starter Elfanger
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Cheers
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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There are too many variables not only in stocks and TA, and in life, to use anything but a systematic approach, for the average investor.
CanOz
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+1 totally agree mate, for EOD trading I couldn't be bothered trading anything but an algo.
CanOz
skc
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Lol Lone Wolf. I hear you and I agree with you. You never know what you brain filtter is doing to your system. It may under- or outperform non-filtered results, but it is still within the original system Monte Carlo umbrella.
I don't think tech/a disagrees with you. You guys are just talking pass each other.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Someone understands me... I have tears in my eyes...
Yes, that's what I was saying. Somehow you managed to use less words than me though.:
Last try.
I actually have 2 visual filters in my Techtrader method.
(1) The stock cannot be in a clearly long term range.
(2) The stock must be either breaking out of a longer term down trend or be In a clear up trend.
Here is where we differ.
If they were added filters then certain stocks would not be in the scans satisfying the criteria for the system.
The same criteria used to test ALL stocks selected by the system rules.
My arguement is that the MonteCarlo results give me a deviation from the mean results using ALL stocks selected
Of say 20% low end----32% mean ----42% high end.
Picking ANY of those selected in a scan will see my long term results ( according to testing ) fall somewher between 20 and 42%. Knowing that even if I used a dart on those selected ---- unless market conditions differed markedly from those used in testing--- then that's where my profit is likely to fall.
My eyeball screen I could not code so used the above logic for justifying it's use.
Over the years of live testing the system was returning results above the mean which was 32% and the mean
27% from memory.
Frankly I have no idea whether the eyeball filter or exceptional bullish conditions tilted the returns above the mean.
I suspect the latter! But I do know that compounding/margin and pyramiding saw returns on capital invested that were and are phenomenal.
Over 6 years $30k to $360k that's over 1000% on money invested.
Many lose sight of this--- infact don't even see it!
I think/ hope this explanation helps our cause Lone Wolf.
Good discussion should be encouraged and I have enjoyed this one.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Actually it was 7 Years.
For those interested This is the last Equity Curve Graph Daryl put up.
1200% on capital invested in 7 yrs!
We had closed trading for a little while
I had closed my own trading in JULY---its all on the website.
We began with $30K on BT Margin So $90K---leveraged 3:1 The $90000 looks like 0
due to perfect placement of my line!!!
Click to expand
No money in systems trading?
For those interested This is the last Equity Curve Graph Daryl put up.
1200% on capital invested in 7 yrs!
We had closed trading for a little while
I had closed my own trading in JULY---its all on the website.
We began with $30K on BT Margin So $90K---leveraged 3:1 The $90000 looks like 0
due to perfect placement of my line!!!
Click to expand
No money in systems trading?
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
Did you have to pay back the original 60K loan from the ending 360K?
The leveraged return if you had the loan to repay would be 30K to 300K or a CAGR of 38.9%
If you held your leverage ratio constant at 3:1 then you would have had a 120K loan at the end and 30K to 240K is a leveraged CAGR of 34.6%
90K to 360K over 7 years is an unleveraged return of 22% CAGR.
The regression line on the all ords accumulation index returned 24.6% CAGR over the 03 to 07 bull market.
The real strength of any trend following system is the switching to cash to reduce the depth of draw down – the delay in switching back out of cash is the cost on the up legs. Why didn’t you not keep going with it and wait for the next signals? How would it have fared in the 10-12 sideways noise?
ps. Lonewolf I thought you post made splendid sense – but I didn't comment because my views don't count on this tech centric forum.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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You pay the interest on the loan
You keep the profit.
If I lost X Id be margin called.
You dont get given the 60K to run off and
trade through any platform you like.
You dont physically take the money.
Anyway MORE LIES.for your amusement.
Click to expand.
You keep the profit.
If I lost X Id be margin called.
You dont get given the 60K to run off and
trade through any platform you like.
You dont physically take the money.
Anyway MORE LIES.for your amusement.
Click to expand.
Trembling Hand
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Hey? Not sure what you mean here craft? A margin loan is not a loan, its leverage.
Tech
What you have put up is all totally bollocks for establishing what the actual CAGR was and I’m sure you know it, but why ruin a god story with reality.
No idea if the equity chart is closed trades or open – obviously the Allords you are comparing too is on an open basis.
No idea if your equity chart includes dividends, if so the comparison should be the accumulation index
No idea if you equity chart included the subtraction of interest.
If the 360K ending balance is all equity rather than capital employed why did your opening balance start at 90K and not 30K
Whether you describe it as a loan or margin – Is the 360K equity or is it capital, if it’s capital how much equity did you make on your original 30K equity?
If it was somebody else putting this rubbish up you and your mates would be all over them.
The level of Hypocrisy is unbelievable.
Correction of mistake in my previous post:
If you held your leverage ratio constant at 3:1 then you would have had a 120K loan at the end and 30K to 240K is a leveraged CAGR of 34.6%
should be
If you held your leverage ratio constant at 3:1 then you would have had a 240K loan/margin at the end and 30K to 120K is a leveraged CAGR of 21.9%
Trembling Hand
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Nah thats just not right. I'm surprised you don't know how a leveraged account works. Once you close out all trades you have no "loan" all you have is capital.
Nah thats just not right. I'm surprised you don't know how a leveraged account works. Once you close out all trades you have no "loan" all you have is capital.
If the 360K is closed out equity why does the equity curve start at 90K capital and not the original 30K equity?
Trembling Hand
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If the 360K is closed out equity why does the equity curve start at 90K capital and not the original 30K equity?
Not sure which bit you are talking about. Tech will have to answer that.
I think what he is getting at....
$30k plus $60k on margin = $90k start..
1) Is $360k end value $330k equity plus $30k margin?
2) Or was the $30k paid off once the equity got to $90k?
3) Or was the 33% gearing maintained throughout the system so ending margin was $120k and equity of $240?
If we are looking at the CAGR surely we have to look at the system results without leverage used?
$30k plus $60k on margin = $90k start..
1) Is $360k end value $330k equity plus $30k margin?
2) Or was the $30k paid off once the equity got to $90k?
3) Or was the 33% gearing maintained throughout the system so ending margin was $120k and equity of $240?
If we are looking at the CAGR surely we have to look at the system results without leverage used?
Trembling Hand
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Dudes you don't pay off anything. For every dollar in your account they will alow you to hold a position to the value of $3.
You don't pay back anything. You never get any extra money in your account. We are not talking risk adjusted returns. We are just talking about starting capital of $30,000 to ending capital of $ 360,000. (maybe $330,000??)
I don't understand the confusion. Its a pretty simple calculation isn't it?
tech/a
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Craft
I'll leave it to you to sort your mess out.
I bought a Commercial property with my $387000 (What I had at the end of my stint in my personal account).
So know I wasn't $60K short!--I'm sitting in it now!
The exercise was and still is designed to help those who are starting on the journey---it never was and certainly isnt the be all and end all of systems.
But as I'm well and truly used to by now--when ever I post anything about it up---it attracts those who want to cut down "The Tall Poppy".
I'll leave it to you to sort your mess out.
I bought a Commercial property with my $387000 (What I had at the end of my stint in my personal account).
So know I wasn't $60K short!--I'm sitting in it now!
The exercise was and still is designed to help those who are starting on the journey---it never was and certainly isnt the be all and end all of systems.
But as I'm well and truly used to by now--when ever I post anything about it up---it attracts those who want to cut down "The Tall Poppy".
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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We Bought $90k of stock.
At the end we sold $360k of stock.
I personally had turned my 30K into $387k and used it to purchase My building.
Sh==t people get excited about big percentages --- once you do it you wont get so flustered!
The equity curve put up runs from 90K to 360K over 7 years . We know that starting capital is 30K equity and 60K margin.
What is not explicit is whether the 360K ending figure is 360K equity, 300K equity and the original 60K margin or if the 3:1 margin was retained and includes 240K Margin. Even if the leverage ratio wasn't maintained where was the 60K original margin retired in the equity curve?
Dodge and weave and insinuate that I don't understand all you like, but I doubt that you will provide any real transparency.
My bull**** meter is ringing loudly and I suggest others should also until there is the same level of accountability here as he would be expect of others.
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