Isnt that 1.7% just alpha? (risk adjusted return)
Im looking for something that looks like "52%", where anything above 50% is a positive expectancy.
whats a bucket shop?
bucket shop came to apply to low-class pseudo stock brokerages that did not execute trades.
$17 = expectancy expressed as dollar
1.7% = expectancy, same figure expressed as a percentage
what i think you are making reference to is %W (your percetange of winners based on the number of trades taken)
sticking with my example for simplicity.
Trades taken = 500 (100%)
winning trades = 260 (52%, 260/500)
losing trades = 240 (48%,240/500)
total $ amount of winning trades = $32,500
total $ amount of losing trades = $24,000
avg $ winning trade = $125 ($32,500 / 260 winning trades)
avg $ losing trade = $65 ($24,000 / 240 losing trades)
based on the figures in my example:
{($125 x 52%) - ($100 - 48%) = $17}
is this what you were after?
Hey yeah, that looks like what i'm afterYeah
Its pretty simple maths
((Avg Win*Win%)/(Avg loss*Loss%))/2
That will show 0-50% = Negative Expectancy
50%-100% = Positive Expectancy
Not sure if thats the exact one your after -- i just made it up then (but it works)
Brad
Hey yeah, that looks like what i'm after
I am so stupid
(bad time to ask me maths q's thursday night when friday is a day off)
Here you go mate-- tried and true (just made it up 5mins ago)
% = (AvgWin * Win%) / ((AvgWin * Win%)+(AvgLoss * loss%))
Basically you are dividing the avg win expectancy into the total expectancy
So if your win expectancy is $100 and your expectancy is $100 your total is expectancy (win+loss) is $200, it will return 100/200 = 0.5 (break even)
If your win expectancy is $200 and your loss expectancy is $50 your total will be $250. so 200/250 = 80% (positive expectancy as is > 50%)
there you go
Brad
you're a smart cookie beamstas, i didnt know that one
out of interest NS, is there a reason you were after that one? Does this serve a different purpose to the profit factor, $ or % expectancy?
im still learning about this stuff so im still a little green
you're a smart cookie beamstas, i didnt know that one
out of interest NS, is there a reason you were after that one? Does this serve a different purpose to the profit factor, $ or % expectancy?
So you started the day with $22533
and ended the day with $22536.11
Quiet day.
B/FWD = balance from the previous period, brought forward to start the current period.Educate me.
Start of day
End of day
Educate me.
Start of day
End of day
$3 difference.
Slow day.
I can smell another $500 coming on.
Is this Realtime or a SIM
Is this a one off or a daily event?
Sim or otherwise.
Thanks Cartman Now I see it.
That profit could have accumulated over a day/week/month.
That b/fwd is what he started the day with. So that profit was accumulated over the day, not over weeks or months.
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