How low can the All Ords go?

[bribieman]

US jobs report Friday. Small rally until then IMHO. But could get ugly for next week. But we are in untested water now who really knows?
Mr Imelt from GE said one thing out of text at a spanish cafe today and the dow crashed 270 points, So who out there could show confidence?

 

[zt3000]

Due to the way these mortgages work, they have a "reset" date when the required repayments will (in general) greatly increase.

As far as i know, the last of the major resets occur at the end of 2008.

Mid 2009 IMO will be the recovery, although i thought mid 2008 would be the bottom, how wrong i was hahah

 

[professor_frink]

As far as i know, the last of the major resets occur at the end of 2008.

Mid 2009 IMO will be the recovery, although i thought mid 2008 would be the bottom, how wrong i was hahah

this arrived in my inbox this morning. Thought it might be of interest

 

[Whiskers]

this arrived in my inbox this morning. Thought it might be of interest

Interesting.

So the Subprime will mostly be done this time next year... BUT if US interest rates happen to rise in the next year or so, which seems almost inevetable (ie if they escape a recession/depression) then it's probably going to inflict considerable more pain across the wider community and keep their growth on the low side.

Go China and India.

 

[billybaxter]

how long will she go?

so the all ords are around the 3600 mark right now...some cat on another forum told me she's heading to 2000 points by august next year, and other people say she'll be at 1500 by 2010...in reality, I don't see it dropping below 3250.....your thoughts?

 

[jackliu]

Re: how long will she go?

so the all ords are around the 3600 mark right now...some cat on another forum told me she's heading to 2000 points by august next year, and other people say she'll be at 1500 by 2010...in reality, I don't see it dropping below 3250.....your thoughts?

i say it would drop around 3000....

 

[otagomed]

I had this discussion with my friend today. How low can the ASX200 go?
I think we are almost there.
However my friend thinks that it will drop down to 2700 level which we saw in 2003.

In short term(ie next 1-2weeks), what do you guys expect?
When do you think we will see the recent high of 4300?
1. before the end of november
2. before christmas
3. sometime next year
4. never

I believe that no matter what happens in long term, we will see 4300 again by end of the year. Just wondering what you guys think.

 

[drsmith]

My feeling is that the market is in constant chase mode to the evolving economic situation.

In terms of other bear markets, two that were worse were 1987 at 50% and 1973/74 at 59% (according to the Australian). I don't know if their analysis goes back to the great depression.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Re: how long will she go?

i say it would drop around 3000....

Sure, it'll get there and more, but unlikely on this current leg down

 

[OzWaveGuy]

I believe that no matter what happens in long term, we will see 4300 again by end of the year. Just wondering what you guys think.

Any reason why you have chosen 4300 and before the end of the year? Just interested in your timing and target rationale (if you don't mind me asking)

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Looking at many of the posts in this forum over recent days - I see a lot of negative sentiment in the posts (and for good reason). One way to read this is as a contrarian indicator ( discussed here--> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=351730&postcount=5228 )

Hence a bounce (a reasonable short term one) is due very shortly

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Looking at many of the posts in this forum over recent days - I see a lot of negative sentiment in the posts (and for good reason). One way to read this is as a contrarian indicator ( discussed here--> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=351730&postcount=5228 )

Hence a bounce (a reasonable short term one) is due very shortly

And for those who are interested - Looking at this specific thread over the last few months - it generally gets active just before a bounce is about to take place or just after it starts - so perhaps a contrarian forecaster of market action?

Note: Now that I've said this, the contrarian logic for this thread will now be broken.

 

[nunthewiser]

And for those who are interested - Looking at this specific thread over the last few months - it generally gets active just before a bounce is about to take place or just after it starts - so perhaps a contrarian forecaster of market action?

Note: Now that I've said this, the contrarian logic for this thread will now be broken.

nah its ok OWG ive stated a bounce due also in other threads/chat here and in my reckoning we both cant be wrong at the same time

 

[OzWaveGuy]

nah its ok OWG ive stated a bounce due also in other threads/chat here and in my reckoning we both cant be wrong at the same time

Maybe only a day out?

Do you have a specific start and end target of the bounce in mind?

 

[nunthewiser]

Maybe only a day out?

Yes , i have now devised a cunning plan , whenever i state a bounce due or a top formed , i now wait a day before i actually act on it

like clockwork, lol

re start , imminent, this point to 3400 turnpoint, re end target between 3700-3800 and will revaluate from there

hey havent entered as yet so will play by ear and vols tommorow


who knows i could always be wrong too

PS i wouldnt mind your thoughts on a long term view (1-5 years) on the NIKKEI if you find the time
thanks in advance

 

[kengaikl]

Most stocks on the All Ords are either not making a profit or companies with debt that they can never repay. Based on that assesment i believe the a low of 0 is quite possible

 

[skyQuake]

Doubt we can go to 0. In fact. Find me 1 stockmarket that has gone to 0.

While it is probably true most companies on the AORD aren't making profits, at least 1/2 of that is junior miner explorer cos with some dirt and a prospecting licence.
The elephants in the room are the major constituents that are still making a killing.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Doubt we can go to 0. In fact. Find me 1 stockmarket that has gone to 0.

While it is probably true most companies on the AORD aren't making profits, at least 1/2 of that is junior miner explorer cos with some dirt and a prospecting licence.
The elephants in the room are the major constituents that are still making a killing.

Rumour has it a new, deadly E-Bowler virus may wipe out the last remaining elephant herds...

:horse:

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Are we there yet? Soooo close now.

The wave structure on the XAO can be read as bottomed or as one more leg down is required. Assuming the bottom is not quite in place yet, there should be some upwards movement tomorrow (finishing a small wave 4) before heading lower to complete the final wave 5.

Some previous targets were discussed here --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=361654&postcount=5709

The lower range was 3236 on the XAO, which now seemingly ties into a series of wave relationships on this last down leg that started on the 12th Nov.

In short, this would complete the down leg of wave (3) that started on 19th March 2008 that has covered some 2750 points so far, and requires a rather decent bounce into wave (4) up.

The S&P futures looks to be finishing an ending Diagonal (but can also be considered complete too) - so an up session followed by a final down leg (maybe tomorrow or early next week) should do it.

Either way - prepare for a change in trend very soon - which should at least take us into Christmas and beyond.

 

[dhukka]

I see the 2ks on the XAO, CBA trading in the 20's and BHP in the teens as very conceivable. Consider that P/E ratios become very depressed at the end of bear markets. At the end of the 1966 -1982 bear market the P/E of the market was around 6 - 7 times trailing earnings. So if you think CBA is cheap trading at 11 times earnings just remember that history suggests it can get a whole lot cheaper.

The above is not a forecast, I don't expect the XAO will see the 2k's but I wouldn't be surprised. FWIW I'm looking for a bottoming somewhere between 3400 - 3800.

Noone would have accused me of being an optimist over the last 18 months but it turns out I was. When I made this forecast in March it looked dire to most. I'm not surprised that we have gone lower than 3400 it has been the speed of the decline that has been surprising. The US recession is just getting warmed up and I think analysts are still far too optimistic on earnings. I can see the XAO falling to the 2700 - 2800 area quite easily but of course it won't be straight down move. We are due for a decent rally soon.