IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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You have to wonder about the US infection rate with such low testing numbers and so many people coming out of the US with the virus.
How Far Will The Market Fall?
- Thread starter IFocus
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You have to wonder about the US infection rate with such low testing numbers and so many people coming out of the US with the virus.
bluekelah
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That's a main reason why I'm thinking there must be further to fall.
Markets don't go straight down from top to bottom but this one has thus far done pretty much that, suggesting that we haven't really seen the bottom.
Even the 1987 crash, whilst substantially a single day event, still took 37 trading days after the high to get to the bottom. Thus far this decline is only 15 days.
Good observation, thats why i am just gonna wait till late April at least to hunt for bargains. By then ASX should be nicely in the sub 4000 point range.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Because there are still risks. You will be paying an absolute crapper load of extrinsic value. If it goes against you, premium sag will be a pipe dream, it will be more like premium apocalypse.
You won't get much gamma so you are taking just about a pure volatility bet with a little bit of directional bias.
tinhat
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As far as I am concerned the market can drop a gazillion percent more from here because when I was a kid and I was prop forward in a scrum the world was already over and then I would go mud crabbing in the mangroves. Nothing will kill me until I am dead.
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So Scumo in his address to the nation says economy will bounce back quickly. Not so taking this long term Delta chart which has stood the test of time at face value!! Disregarding the y axis and focusing only on time, 20 year cycle point low ( point 14) not due till 2022
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tinhat
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Have you met scumbag? I have. Bounce will take longer but will be swift on ASX. Chose you stocks. PNV for the win.So Scumo in his address to the nation says economy will bounce back quickly. Not so taking this long term Delta chart which has stood the test of time at face value!! Disregarding the y axis and focusing only on time, 20 year cycle point low ( point 14) not due till 2022
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Timing will be and always is the issue with s bear bounce. Not unless you like red hands
That's the premise of options anyways. You buy and either you make a factor or lose it all.
Yes options are more expensive because of volatility. But it's very fair.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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It's only fair if you get the direction right.
But, it looks like put buyers are doing very well.
bluekelah
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American markets got absolutely crushed last night off 10percent. Its terrifying thursday. Asx will crash to day limits at open
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Absolutely relentless selling. A wave C in EW terms is akin to a wave 3. That is exactly what we are seeing. Would not be surprised to see S&P 500 up to 37% off the ATH on this first leg down before a major counter rally. Quick economic turnaround, yeah right......
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Yes so should i ieave my low ball buy on the market?probably not
Too late to sell whatever is left at risk.put warrant will be too dear
I simplified my US portfolio last night so ok there
as someone stated here, a push down by the super funds needing to act on members move to cash could trigger full capitulation and market closure
Too late to sell whatever is left at risk.put warrant will be too dear
I simplified my US portfolio last night so ok there
as someone stated here, a push down by the super funds needing to act on members move to cash could trigger full capitulation and market closure
I think things will get cheap enough to buy for me today. Honestly it all still looked expensive up till now. Hopefully I see cheap today. I wasn't in any rush, still not really. But if it looks cheap I'll start buying.
I think the first wave of stimulus will be to slow. I wasn't that impressed with it either. Govt will panic and introduce a bigger package.
I'd feel more comfortable buying under or around 5k Xjo
I think the first wave of stimulus will be to slow. I wasn't that impressed with it either. Govt will panic and introduce a bigger package.
I'd feel more comfortable buying under or around 5k Xjo
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Someone( who will remain nameless) once told me on this forum you never short the banks.... Given the banking index has been hammered to this extent thus far, how much lower?
I noticed last night Deutche Bank has collapsed. Could be time to run for the hills....
I noticed last night Deutche Bank has collapsed. Could be time to run for the hills....
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XJO could go below 3000.
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Many member will change their allocation from balanced agressive etc to cash capital garanteed etc probably this week end with effect next Tuesday.
Funds themselves might change their own allocation for the balanced fund.. usually the biggest of all funds.
we will see learn after the facts....
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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So DOW down 10% over night was hoping this would come later but here we are, white knuckle ride but remember this is only the start early days yet only at around the disbelief stage still some way to the sky is falling panic.
Capitulation is the buy signal during the GFC that was CBA around $24 if I remember.
Some have been asking how do you make money out of this.
Opportunities like this can be a once a lifetime opportunity to buy the low but remember its low because of expectations the sky is falling and there is real risk that this time will be different.
Still early days IMHO.
Capitulation is the buy signal during the GFC that was CBA around $24 if I remember.
Some have been asking how do you make money out of this.
Opportunities like this can be a once a lifetime opportunity to buy the low but remember its low because of expectations the sky is falling and there is real risk that this time will be different.
Still early days IMHO.
I was thinking 4000, maybe between 3000-4000. If it looks like the world is slowing up to much and I revise down
For now it's 5000-4800 and I'll look at prices to buy.
If it still looks pricey (and I'm a tight arse) I might wait to see. At this stage I highly doubt we are getting an immediate reversal.
