How Far Will The Market Fall?

[InsvestoBoy]

I can't wait to see the chart and the lines that explain that one GG.

Using the co-ordinates of the peak=>trough and high of todays retracement (7202, 5350, 6037) as inputs to a Fibonacci extension gets you 4582 as the 0.786 extension and 4185 as the 1.0 extension.

A bit hard to see because I had to zoom the chart quite a bit out to show the extensions while the coordinates are all within a short timeframe.



Not that I am necessarily agreeing with the forecast, just showing some lines and numbers. Think of them as potential stopping points of the C move in an A-B-C pattern where the A and B moves have completed.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I can't wait to see the chart and the lines that explain that one GG.

Too many charts open.!!

I will reply tomorrow eve with a better eye.

btw The BBC are tipping Korea Air is going bust.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51799142

Avoid QAN as it is a very sharp knife in this fall.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

Too many charts open.!!

I will reply tomorrow eve with a better eye.

btw The BBC are tipping Korea Air is going bust.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51799142

Avoid QAN as it is a very sharp knife in this fall.

gg

On the subject of airlines I wonder how Cathay Pacific is managing, having their hub in Hong Kong must be problematic.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

On the subject of airlines I wonder how Cathay Pacific is managing, having their hub in Hong Kong must be problematic.

Cathay would be suffering.

Virgin must be quaking as their major shareholders are Chinese and their planes in my experience were not as full as Qantas even before the corona virus.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

I think it will be materials again that saves the day for Australia again. I cannot see a situation where even in 12 months time there isn't more people joining the middle class in China, India & Africa. The last 2 will only grow their consumption more dramatically as time plods along.

I don't have the numbers on this handy but I believe almost all commodities are being used at a greater rate than ever before, demand won't stop suddenly either as more people get lifted from poverty into better situations.

True long term but we could have a couple years of carnage, takeover by sovereign funds, even sabre rattling..
20% fall is just back last year level

 

[IFocus]

Look I definitely think a big grain of salt is warranted with taking the figures of the Chinese government, no question there. Your picture is at this point 15 days outdated too however. I would expect activity is still only returning to normal but I would not think it's far from normal either at this point.

Yes hopefully there is a lag and 15 days make a difference anecdotally its been said that local officials are cooking the books still who to believe also estimates of 40 to 50% of migrant workers have still not returned to work.

 

[peter2]

One of many possibilities. This classic will give us a "U" reversal.

 

[sptrawler]

Great graphic representation peter, that is the way I think it will play out, but it is anyones guess nothing seems to go to plan.

 

[So_Cynical]

btw The BBC are tipping Korea Air is going bust.

2 or 3 of them have to go under, Virgin must be very vulnerable, Air Asia? all the non govt airlines must be super sus.

 

[aus_trader]

2 or 3 of them have to go under, Virgin must be very vulnerable, Air Asia? all the non govt airlines must be super sus.

I think most will be saved. The savior came out just-in-time from above that may save the airlines. Actually came out from Saudi/Russia deal-break:



Cheapest Jet Fuel costs in decades !

You/we'll all get to see $1 or lower petrol at the pump soon... not seen in decades

I think the Korean case was a extreme thin margin, heavily indebted business that was treading on thin ice before the Corona hit

Then again I hope there aren't other airlines with similar situations as the virus spreads around the world So not suggesting to go out and buy the airlines right now as GG said, but I think they'll survive after the fallout.

 

[kid hustlr]

I think short term we have bottomed, that looked climactic yesterday. Longer term I feel we've gone half way but the Longer term view can change over time.

Surprises how many apparent perms bulls there on this forum in general (not saying you are wrong)

 

[kid hustlr]

I think short term we have bottomed, that looked climactic yesterday. Longer term I feel we've gone half way but the Longer term view can change over time.

Surprises how many apparent perms bulls there on this forum in general (not saying you are wrong)

Just to add a technical lense, the price action of cba and csl yesterday was incredible and further support my views of a short term low.

Technically long term on the s&p you could argue we can go all the way back 1600, that to me is my worst case scenario, not my base case at this point but definitely feasible.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

One of many possibilities. This classic will give us a "U" reversal.

View attachment 101190

Thanks @peter2

I will refresh my rusty knowledge of Wyckoff now that I have seen your post.

A very, very good reminder.

gg

 

[Logique]

Don't know how far it will fall.
I do think that following a period of high volatility and uncertainty, traders will be wary of potential bull traps, and look for a classical reversal pattern, of which there are different varieties,
e.g. https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/how-to-trade-chart-patterns

 

[hja]

One of many possibilities. This classic will give us a "U" reversal.

View attachment 101190

Hi Peter
Are you calling yesterday's rally of the XAO the AR? It's hard to see it on the daily! You'd want to see it clear the previous bar (9/3) on lighter volume according to Wyckoff

 

[moXJO]

I think short term we have bottomed, that looked climactic yesterday. Longer term I feel we've gone half way but the Longer term view can change over time.

Surprises how many apparent perms bulls there on this forum in general (not saying you are wrong)

I'm bearish/bullish on the size of stimulus.
So we may whipsaw a bit till money actually filters through. If US, China and Australia all start pumping dough, then it will be off again.
So stimulus response is the first hurdle.

We then have this virus.
Probably a year and a bit till we see vaccinations. So the government needs to show a very capable hand, or confidence will drop and fear will reign.
Unfortunately China and US responses will also need to be watched. US has virus and elections. If Bernie wins nominations then kiss the market goodbye.
China just needs someone to sell to and we should be good if we kiss ass.

I also worry about Aus economy. Stimulus will kick the can down the road a bit.

These kinds of markets always test people's mettle. Were your emotions in check when everyone else was losing it. Did the fear take over when the market slipped.
"Buy when there is blood on the streets" always stuck in my brain. Get out when you hear "sky is the limit".

If talking lows on another run down. I'd pick 5000 xjo(sorry always trade the xjo not xao) I'm always off about 200 points so 4800.


I'm a guesstimator and a gambler, the worse kind of trader(If you could call me that) though.

 

[jbocker]

... Life goes on, while the idiots out there will wonder what to do with all their toilet paper

I think these people are justified in hording large amounts, they are obviously proven to be huge ar$eholes!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I'm a guesstimator and a gambler, the worse kind of trader(If you could call me that) though.

it's better to be roughly right than exactly wrong.

 

[aus_trader]

I think these people are justified in hording large amounts, they are obviously proven to be huge ar$eholes!

Love the comment, yes everyone suffers as these few hoarders have it all for themselves.

 

[Smurf1976]

I think short term we have bottomed, that looked climactic yesterday. Longer term I feel we've gone half way but the Longer term view can change over time.

When you say short term or long term, what sort of time frame do you have in mind?

Days? Weeks? Months?

I’m not disagreeing, just trying to understand.