How Far Will The Market Fall?

[fiftyeight]

I hope this bear does not bite. Bought some BEAR.ASX

This one is just a punt on my understanding of human emotions. My wife is constantly telling me “you just don’t get it”, maybe I should be selling BEAR.

The stimulus has been announced, borders are closing, people are losing their jobs, people are staying at home more, we are doing all the ‘right’ things. Things should be getting better?? Yet the numbers will keep rising for some time, I am not confident people will handle this well.

 

[tech/a]

Dow will test the low just as we are.
Still think we are close to a consolidation area.

Yes!!!

Mind you there are those who are far more qualified than I who think
We are only at the bottom of the ” J “ curve.

if we see Europe and the US with 10s of 1000s of deaths in the next few weeks
They will be right.

Pessimistic?

Maybe I’m Optimistic?

I think the worm is turning down again today having just shorted the Dax again at 9925.
Im still holding to my optimism that this is in an area of consolidation.
Massive US Case and death numbers will see a drift lower but packages in the Billions and
trillions world wide I feel have placed a line in the sand.
If that line is crossed then all hell will break loose.

But Im optimistic that we (The world) have got this!

 

[basilio]

Yesterday the government added an almighty $130Billion package to support every business, sole trader and worker . Absolutely broke every economic boundary to date.

Yesterday afternoon the market rocketed in relief. It's now 3.20 and after an early 150 point climb -- we are down almost 60 points.

Perhaps the purty cat needs a rest or a resuscitation ?

 

[basilio]

Not an Elliot guru but yes i expect a little bounce back, a good opportunity to sell these bargains we got last 2 weeks

Did you take your profits by lunch time Qfrog ?
They didn't hang around long did they !

 

[IFocus]

For EW wave I remember the Law of Alternation does that apply to ABC?

Given how impulsive this move down are we likely to meander up?

 

[basilio]

Anyone taking bets on the last 35 minutes ?
Currently in free fall but
1) Could it be oversold and there will be a rush to cover short positions ? OR
2) Are we about to trigger more sell orders an see another 100 point slide ?
Or WTF ?
....................................
Could break 5000 by days end.
But not in a good way...

 

[Country Lad]

Anyone taking bets on the last 35 minutes ?
Currently in free fall but
1) Could it be oversold and there will be a rush to cover short positions ? OR
2) Are we about to trigger more sell orders an see another 100 point slide ?
Or WTF ?
....................................
Could break 5000 by days end.
But not in a good way...

A bit of euphoria after seeing the Dow up 3 odd %, then from midday reality kicked in and slow downward slide from there. Maybe not 5000 by days end but soon.

 

[gartley]

For EW wave I remember the Law of Alternation does that apply to ABC?

Given how impulsive this move down are we likely to meander up?

The last 2 legs have unfolded in 3 waves and the high of the last leg up exceeded the previous leg up. Two patterns that come to mind are: and irregular flat OR a running triangle within a wave B. Not sure which, but will take a punt and say a running triangle given all ther chop. Doubt the rally is finished yet, but anything possible.

 

[qldfrog]

When in their lives will the Coronial (Covidian?) generation get to see these market levels again?

True 5y before it gets above 5000 again

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Just another day of selling during the day and buyers after the close

 

[kid hustlr]

Just another day of selling during the day and buyers after the close

View attachment 101847

It's like the big boys get the tap on the shoulder at midday where the volume will be at the close.

/conspiracy

 

[Country Lad]

We're saved - all these inexperienced new traders will send the market up. Until they run out of money of course.

 

[gartley]

We're saved - all these inexperienced new traders will send the market up. Until they run out of money of course.
View attachment 101854

If there is a big influx of newbie traders bottom picking, most likely we ain't seen a bottom get......

 

[hja]

If there is a big influx of newbie traders bottom picking, most likely we ain't seen a bottom get......

That sounds like a lot of sore bottoms... expect a shortage of nappy baby rash cream?
How many is 100% supposed to represent, end of March?
Then there's April...

 

[barney]

most likely we ain't seen a bottom get......

Feels like it could be a volatile night on the Futs … Just a vibe .....

Our market has held up well today but I'm holding Short on the SPI to offset any losses on my current holdings if the vibe comes to fruition. Wont be surprised to see some big swings in both directions given the early pre market on the FTSE and DAX

 

[frugal.rock]

It's all about the vibe Barney.
We've had 3 somewhat Rosie days... based off stimulus money announcement.
Let's remember that the money won't be largely showing up till well after mid April.
Good luck with the short, however the odds are stacked in your favour.
It's not Wabbit season yet. (Elmer Fudd laugh)

F.Rock

 

[tonyparis]

If there is a big influx of newbie traders bottom picking, most likely we ain't seen a bottom get......

Yes I am one of them!
Seeking some guidance from the knights of the round table

 

[tech/a]

Feels like it could be a volatile night on the Futs … Just a vibe .....

Our market has held up well today but I'm holding Short on the SPI to offset any losses on my current holdings if the vibe comes to fruition. Wont be surprised to see some big swings in both directions given the early pre market on the FTSE and DAX

Barney
Are you suggesting that the FTSE and or the DAX have some sort of link with the SPI?
That the way they trade could affect the way the SPI trades?

 

[gartley]

Yes I am one of them!
Seeking some guidance from the knights of the round table

I think you will ok for the next some weeks if things as uptrend looks like it will persist. Looking for another leg down to take hold from higher levels thereafter and retest lows and probably even further..

 

[barney]

Barney
Are you suggesting that the FTSE and or the DAX have some sort of link with the SPI?
That the way they trade could affect the way the SPI trades?

Yeah definitely, but not all the time (in my experience) …

SPI closing price (4.29pm on Axi-T) will usually continue to follow the lead of the DAX and FTSE futs as they jockey for position in their pre-open.

If you get a divergence as we did today (FTSE +DAX were generally trending down into the SPI close which was generally up)

Plus a lot of volatility of the SPI futs just after the close between 4-4.10pm (99 point range in 10 minutes!

F+D continued trending down after the SPI close (as did the DOW) and the SPI gapped open at 5.10pm (Down 43 points)

I closed the trade a few minutes later as all 4 Index's started to reverse back to the upside.

There is obviously some risk involved holding the SPI trade for 40 minutes unable to trade, but if the market swings against you, the option to take opposite positions on the F or Dax or Dow to cover is still available.

Certainly not fool proof but there is definitely correlation in how they move in certain conditions. Cheers.