I do. Do you?
All of those magical CB programs and they couldn't even get to the past highs that were achieved with no QQE, no ETF, no ZIRP, no nothing.
All of those magical programs and still underperformed the global index, an underperformance that only accelerated with ETF purchases and QQE
View attachment 101807
No inflation, no growth, no magical stock "floor".
Almost as if Central Banks aren't even relevant.
what am i missing ? isn't that 180% gain
So you don't think dow will jump/hold because of it?Here's the chart of a market where the Central Bank is actively buying equity ETFs for years now, to the point where they are a Top 10 holder of many companies via ETFs.
Not to mention extremey low rates for a long time, QE, QQE, yield curve control, ZIRP, NIRP, you name it.
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It's almost as if none of that matters at all.
In your words:Just look at the chart.
All that buying, no special performance vs other markets with no ETF buying or QQE or ZIRP or anything. If anything, underperformance.
In your words:
No inflation, no growth,
But up 180% what is driving the growth then?
Could it be that 80% of the market is owned by the BOJ and being consistently bought up??
So you don't think dow will jump/hold because of it?
Surely confidence is a factor?
Because of what? Speculation about Fed buying stocks that hasn't happened?
Yes! Sentiment is a huge factor. If market participants think the Fed has a floor then they buy and the market goes up, sure. But don't mix up what drove that, namely, sentiment, not the Fed.
That's all I care about. All good.
If the fed announces tomorrow that it will buy etfs then it will rise, that is all that matters. If it is sentiment or the actual buying stopping market panic and forced selling.When I say growth I mean economic, GDP growth.
If it's BoJ buying that is driving the Nikkei up, then why were all other markets up in the same timeframe with no CB buying or QQE? Why were those markets up more than the Japanese market when priced in the same currency?
Because of what? Speculation about Fed buying stocks that hasn't happened?
Yes! Sentiment is a huge factor. If market participants think the Fed has a floor then they buy and the market goes up, sure. But don't mix up what drove that, namely, sentiment, not the Fed.
Here's a link from a week ago about the kind of things that might drive a rally
https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/0...novic-nomuras-mcelligott-look-back-and-ahead/
or this note from JPM on Friday on similar topics
You'll note that in none of this discussion is gibberish about the Fed.
If the fed announces tomorrow that it will buy etfs then it will rise, that is all that matters. If it is sentiment or the actual buying stopping market panic and forced selling.
You think one thing I think anotherThis is demonstrably wrong, just by looking at the Nikkei chart.
Japanese equity investors didn't bid equities any more or less over the course of several years simply because the BoJ announced they were buying or even because they bought!
There is no rule which says if the Fed announces they will buy ETFs then markets will rise, just exactly like there was no rise when the Fed announced QE-Infinity and rate cuts to 0% and instead the market went lock limit down.
Just because a CB can sometimes drive sentiment, doesn't mean that they will. Sentiment is sentiment, Central Banks aren't sentiment.
By now the Japanese taxpayers own most of their local sharemarket, the socialisation of JapanYou think one thing I think another
only time will tell if it actually happens.
it may not even be announced.
I don't care about being right I just am trying to game a scenario that could occur to improve the chances of making money. Other factors might overwhelm central banks buying.
If i could make 180% every 8 years I will be happy.
It just shows that the anything it takes is a literal statement by central banks.
The ASX spent a full decade getting back to 1987 levels and more recently it took 12 years to regain the 2007 high. For that matter the high of January 1970 wasn't reached again until September 1979 and the 1937 high wasn't regained until 1945 and the 1951 high wasn't seen again until 1958 so there's plenty of examples of the market taking close to a decade to recover.
Current crash looks so steep, somewhat like the 1987 flash crash. I would like to go all the way back to 1929 crash and earlier
As someone who was trading during the 1987, 1991 and 1992 falls, (not 1929 I'm afraid @aus_trader) can I say that trying to relate the current falls and particularly how the market will recover with those periods is simply not worth the effort.
The conditions then were totally different, comparatively few companies on the ASX, nowhere near the spekkies to play with, and importantly, in 1987, no internet to get data (imagine that kiddies) and 1991 and 1992 no or very basic internet price data. It is like comparing separate and different worlds.
My charting was done with pencil and graph paper and trades were done through real brokers. Now we have instant trades, high frequency trading, myriads of differing professional opinions at the click of a mouse, forums driven by the red cordial brigade, minute by minute price discovery, instant access to market information and announcements……..and any other of the numerous differences between then & now.
In my view every downturn and recovery has been different and this one will not resemble any other.
A particular issue is the sheer speed of events unfolding.Plus 1. I think this will be quite a different beast. Not sure how but there are far too many factors involved to believe there will be a "traditional" response.
Not an Elliot guru but yes i expect a little bounce back, a good opportunity to sell these bargains we got last 2 weeksMy current thoughts are that the market still has further to fall,...I am looking for a 3 wave move down to complete the Elliott wave cycle.So we should see a rally up into the Wave 'B' which is sort of taking place now with prices moving higher but we need to look for the next move down after that to complete wave "C"....before we move back into a sustained upward move,the last financial crisis took about 2 years to complete the same so will be interesting to see how this one plays out.....Anyone else have some thoughts on this....???
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Not an Elliot guru but yes i expect a little bounce back, a good opportunity to sell these bargains we got last 2 weeks
Then a deeper fall when both death toll and economic carnage realisation sinks in both here and in the states.
Potentially even start of inflation to ward end of year next year
Overall sell some profit in the next 2 months, wait by the bottom around us election time..hard to time..as noted everything going very very fast so bounce could very well end quickly.
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