How Far Will The Market Fall?

[Knobby22]

At some point reasonably soon we will see the first day of no new cases (Aust) and then soon after the first week, how
soon after will the panic button be reset? the pressure to get back to normal will be enormous...the rally will be on.

Late April or early May?

If we as citizens acted like the South Koreans we could achieve it.

Too many idiots though. Listening to people whinging about the hairdressing restrictions is deflating.

 

[lusk]

If we as citizens acted like the South Koreans we could achieve it.

Too many idiots though. Listening to people whinging about the hairdressing restrictions is deflating.

Same, people rushing down to get their hair done before they close. This whole thing has been a good look through the window of human stupidity.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Stay at home if possible.

Keep distance from others if out.

gg

 

[basilio]

IMV there is far more economic damage coming in terms of threats to the US economy as the virus rapidly spreads.

However we are now seeing the whole world beginning becoming affected. Just can't see how markets will stay stable in this situation.

 

[aus_trader]

IMV there is far more economic damage coming in terms of threats to the US economy as the virus rapidly spreads.

However we are now seeing the whole world beginning becoming affected. Just can't see how markets will stay stable in this situation.

There will be a lot of volatility. Short term rallies like what we are experiencing at the moment with possibly further downside to come.

It'll truly be a miracle if there is going to be a 'V-shape' recovery in the markets as if everything is back to normal, unless there is a cure of course.

 

[Cam019]

Let's not forget the GFC where we had counter trend rallies of over 18%. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the same thing could happen this time around. If that were the case, this would give us a level from Mondays low of 5526ish, which is kind of in no mans land. BUT, given the surge in volatility since the start of this move, the zone I am watching is the 5520 - 5700 which also has some confluence with the 38.2 fib. That'd be about a 25% counter trend move to the low side 5520 level.

Here is the kicker for me. The XAO is down approximately 34% over the last 21 trading days. There is over 60% (288 stocks) of the XAO constituents that are down at least that. The range is -34% to -89%. There is over 37% (180 stocks) of the XAO constituents with losses between -33% and 0%.

There are only 9 stocks (1.89%) in the XAO constituents that have gains over the same 21 day period. 9! Much more downside to come, in my opinion

 

[IFocus]

While the daly ranges remain over 2% up or down we are no where near recovery US infection rate to soar.

 

[moXJO]

I changed my strategy from buying all the way down, to selling on rallies. I want to free carry as much as I can.
Bhp has treated me well as has afterpay. Props to those who pointed them out.
Afterpay has been swinging back and forth a lot. Roughly 30% a day in some instances.

I had some flops like Wpl though. I'm just at breakeven with the potential of it going negative on any drop from here.

 

[Cam019]

If that were the case, this would give us a level from Mondays low of 5526ish, which is kind of in no mans land.

This is supposed to be 5226.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Today's market action. Brought to you by Peter D'out

 

[Dona Ferentes]

should have waited for the close-out.... XJO +262 when the squaring off occurred

 

[gartley]

Hopefully this rally can carry through to the 38.2 and 50% retracement range. 5700 could be looking acheivable with Hurst price projection of 5664

 

[MrChow]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1063585/

Italy cases and deaths down 2 days in a row.

Would fit the logic of a 14 day shutdown if they decreased towards the end of that period.

Huge stimulus and Trump not wanting elongated shut downs.

Speculative call XAO 5000 tomorrow (+10% in 2 days)

Where was everyone 3 sessions ago I got no backup from anyone!

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Where was everyone 3 sessions ago I got no backup from anyone!

Selling puts and buying US stocks https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/what-are-we-buying-on-monday.35247/page-6#post-1063312

 

[MrChow]

I've guessed this first act is going to top out within -40%.

Main reason is a quicker than consensus ability to flatten the curve in the worst hit cities (Wuhan, Lombardy as examples) and we haven't been seeing those hypothetical exponential graphs going into the millions lately.

I expect secondary waves with colder weather in both hemispheres. The question mark is whether governments with months to prepare can minimise the impact. If they can then -40% might turn out to be the bottom. If not then GFC and 1929 scenarios come into play next year with an elongated timeline.

 

[moXJO]

I thought stocks looked expensive before. Now they look more expensive than they were previously at this level. There is no way this is a v reversal.
I got out of Wpl for a profit. I'm all out at the moment.
What's the easiest way to short afterpay?

 

[gartley]

Wave (A) rally from the low was on high momentum, exited longs this morning and will wait for fresh buy signal. Wave (C) should take longer and with less momentum and smaller daily ranges. Using crash of 29 rally as a bit of a guide here))

 

[Smurf1976]

Wave (A) rally from the low was on high momentum, exited longs this morning and will wait for fresh buy signal. Wave (C) should take longer and with less momentum and smaller daily ranges. Using crash of 29 rally as a bit of a guide here))

Just saying your charts and analysis are much appreciated and informative.

 

[moXJO]

Just saying your charts and analysis are much appreciated and informative.

Good for mugs like me to guesstimate.

 

[tonyparis]

Last hour of trading for the week.....Market down today
Late rally this afternoon????
Hope so as I would like to sell something!